The Two-Headed Bull. The market is driven by a flight to hard assets like gold due to fiscal decay and a speculative mania in AI stocks. Smart money isn't choosing—it's positioned in both.
Bitcoin's Generational Test. Bitcoin's future as "digital gold" hinges on a generational handoff. For now, its price action tells a different story: it trades like a tech stock, not a safe-haven asset.
Asia is the Epicenter of Froth. While the Western crypto market grinds methodically higher, the real heat is in the East. BNB’s explosive rally and the cash-flush atmosphere at conferences show where the speculative capital is flowing.
A Perfect Storm for a Melt-Up: A potent cocktail of future Fed cuts, massive fiscal deficits, and the AI capex boom is setting the stage for a parabolic, blow-off top market rally.
The Debasement Trade is On: Japan's currency policy is supercharging the US dollar and forcing a global reckoning with fiat dilution, driving a secular flow of capital into hard assets.
Crypto is Now a Macro Asset: Forget the four-year halving cycle. Crypto's fate is tied to global liquidity, and ETH is exhibiting strong supply-side dynamics that could fuel significant outperformance.
AI Is a Pattern-Matcher, Not a Logician. Current models excel at synthesizing existing knowledge but fail at the novel, multi-step creative reasoning required for frontier mathematics. They lack the fundamental logic to build sound proofs from scratch.
The Mathematician Becomes the Editor. As AI automates computation and literature reviews, the primary human role will shift to strategic oversight: identifying valuable problems, validating AI-generated work, and setting the research agenda for the entire field.
Benchmark or Be Disrupted. The math community must lead the charge in creating and assessing rigorous AI benchmarks. Failure to do so risks letting non-experts define success, potentially devaluing the discipline based on superficial AI achievements.
An AGI Moonshot, Not an LLM Factory: Hone’s singular focus is solving the ARC-AGI benchmark to achieve true generalization. This is a high-risk, high-reward play for a step-function leap in AI, not just another incremental improvement.
Architecture Over Data: The strategy is to out-innovate, not out-collect. By exploring novel architectures like JEPA, Hone aims to create models that think more efficiently and don't depend on ever-expanding datasets, sidestepping the data moat of centralized giants.
The Business Model is the Breakthrough: There is no immediate revenue. The investment thesis is straightforward: solve AGI, earn the ultimate bragging rights, and then monetize the world’s first truly intelligent model through distribution partners like Targon.
Vertical Integration is Non-Negotiable: To build AGI, the old model of horizontal specialization is dead. Owning the stack—from research to infrastructure to product—is the only way to move fast enough.
Ship to Socialize: Don't build AGI in a lab and drop it on an unsuspecting world. Products like Sora are deliberate steps to co-evolve technology with society, managing impact through iterative, public-facing releases.
The Real Turing Test is Science: The true measure of AI's power is its ability to make novel scientific discoveries. Altman believes GPT-5 is already approaching this milestone, which will have a more profound impact on humanity than any chatbot.
Stop Fearing Parameters. When in doubt, go bigger. Scale is not just about capacity; it’s a tool for inducing a powerful simplicity bias that improves generalization and paradoxically reduces overfitting.
Trade Hard Constraints for Soft Biases. Instead of rigidly constraining your model architecture, use gentle encouragements. An expressive model with a soft simplicity bias will find the simple solution if the data supports it, while retaining the flexibility to capture true complexity.
Think Like a Bayesian. Even if you don't run complex MCMC, adopt the core principle of marginalization. Techniques like ensembling or stochastic weight averaging approximate the benefits of considering multiple solutions, leading to more robust and generalizable models.
Reward Function is Everything. Mantis’s success hinges on its information-gain-based reward system, which attributes value based on a miner’s marginal contribution to a collective ensemble, not just their individual accuracy.
Inherent Sybil Resistance. By rewarding unique signals, the incentive mechanism naturally discourages miners from running the same model across many UIDs, solving a critical vulnerability in decentralized AI networks.
The Product is Verifiable Alpha. The endgame is not just to build a subnet but to produce a monetizable product: high-quality financial signals, auctioned to the highest bidder and backed by an immutable on-chain performance record.
Incentives Dictate Intelligence. Mantis's breakthrough is its reward function. By precisely measuring a miner's marginal contribution, it makes unique alpha the only profitable strategy and naturally defends against Sybil attacks.
The Ensemble is the Alpha. The network’s power lies not in finding one genius quant, but in combining many good-enough signals into one great one. The collective intelligence is designed to be far more valuable than any individual participant.
The Future is Verifiable, On-Chain Alpha. Mantis plans to monetize by auctioning its predictive signals, creating a transparent marketplace for intelligence and proving that a decentralized network can produce a product valuable enough to compete with Wall Street's top firms.
Google's "Tax on GDP" Is Under Threat. AI is eroding the informational searches that feed Google's funnel and will eventually intercept high-intent commercial queries, redirecting economic power to new agentic platforms.
The Future of Shopping Is Agentic, Not Search-Based. Consumers will delegate research and purchasing to specialized AI agents that optimize every variable, from product choice to payment method, fundamentally changing how brands acquire customers.
Trust Is the Ultimate Moat. In a world of automated "crap," business models built on human trust and strict curation, like Costco's, become exceptionally defensible.
The Macro Evolution: The Institutional Osmosis. Crypto is no longer a parallel universe but a high-speed rail for traditional assets.
The Tactical Edge: Audit Your Humans. Implement "Camera-On" policies and cross-verify identities via physical meetups to neutralize remote infiltration.
The Bottom Line: Survival in the next 12 months depends on moving from "Degen" security to "Enterprise" resilience as the lines between Coinbase and BlackRock vanish.
The Macro Shift: Content Abundance vs. Attention Scarcity. As AI makes the "what" of gaming cheap, the "where" (distribution) and "who" (high-LTV users) become the only defensible assets.
The Tactical Edge: Skin the Game. Use AI to rapidly iterate on visual assets for existing mechanics to capture trending subcultures within crypto communities.
The Bottom Line: The future of gaming isn't about building a 10-year world; it's about building high-fidelity, ephemeral experiences that drive value to on-chain ecosystems.
The Macro Shift: Macro gravity is currently winning as high interest rates suppress risk-on assets while AI captures the remaining speculative energy.
The Tactical Edge: Accumulate Ethereum only when it enters the regression band and Bitcoin when it touches the 200-week moving average.
The Bottom Line: The next major opportunity likely arrives in the summer of 2026 when monetary policy finally turns accommodative and the labor market stabilizes.
The transition from utilization-based pools to intent-based matching engines is the next evolution of DeFi. This movement mirrors the move from AMMs to order books in spot trading.
Monitor the rollout of Kamino’s fixed-rate products to lock in borrowing costs for geared positions. This move protects against the volatility of variable rate markets during high-activity periods.
Kamino is positioning itself as the back-end for the next generation of fintech. If they successfully bridge off-chain collateral, the protocol moves from a crypto-native tool to a global financial utility.
The Macro Shift: Liquidity is returning as the Treasury General Account drains, but capital is becoming more selective. The "rising tide" no longer lifts all boats; it only lifts those with clear value capture.
The Tactical Edge: Prioritize protocols with intrinsic cash flow or those partnering with legacy giants like FIS. Move away from "lottery ticket" tokens that lack a clear revenue mechanism.
The Bottom Line: 2026 will be the year of the "Quality Filter." Investors who survive the current wash-out will find value in the consolidation of the super apps and the institutionalization of on-chain credit.
