The Market Has Already Picked Its Winners for 2026 | Tony Greer

And the beauty about this administration, whether you whatever you think about it or not, they gave us a lot of bull markets to chase. We just went from a bull market where it was all semis and Nvidia all the time to a bull market where it's all metals all the time. I got a feeling that the leadership that we see on the screens today might rhyme with the leadership that we see for the next couple of years. I'm going to trade the breakouts next year and I'm going to expect bull market activity.

All right, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Ford Guidance. And joining today is Tony Greer, TG Macro. Tony, what's going on, man? Last time I chatted to you on the show, it was it was the lows of April, we were saying, and I think VIX was at whatever the hell it was, definitely over 40, I think. And we you and Jared were on and we were saying, you know, you just got to you just got to get into the mud and just start buying and it turned out well. So, yeah, I wanted to get you back on. What's going on, man?

That was a long time ago, but you know, it's I guess I guess it proves to us that, you know, the rule is still true that you, you know, you make your best purchases when everybody is in full panic. And we happen to have timed that right. What what we also had to lean on, if you remember, was it backed all the way up to that old high in the S&P of like 4,800 5K and that's where it fell to in a straight line. So, you know, for a trader, it's like, okay, let's stick our neck out and manage the risk, see what happens, you know, like there's no other thing to do. So, it's good in hindsight. I'm glad that that wound up working out in spades, obviously, but we didn't know then, but we stuck to the game plan, right?

Yeah. And and you also have a a conference coming up that I I wanted to give you a chance to to shout out because we're actually going to be there in person. It's it's in Nashville. So, yeah, just want to open up the floor for a minute because I think it's going to be a lot of fun.

Yeah, me too. I'm really grateful that you were that you wanted to mention it. You know, this conference has been on the back burner for me. This was about to happen right before COVID lockdowns and it was going to happen here on Long Island in a small like I was just going to get a conference off the ground in a small little boutique hotel. And the beauty of it is that the, you know, the business grew quite a bit in the next couple of years. And I picked up a couple of key connections and hires and made a couple of good moves. And we decided that, you know, to think a little bit bigger.

And so we decided to have it in Nashville because we thought we'd get a better turnout. And I got really blessed because I I thought of the first I thought of my dream team roster that I would love to have speak and I asked them and they all said yes. So that's why I'm like so excited. I'm over the moon. We're having it at an amazing hotel at the Virgin Hotel in Nashville. As you know, there's fun in every direction outside the door. And I'm I'm honestly I it's my set of voices in the market that I listen to and base all of my investment decision making on.

So I'm excited to have them all in one place and and get everybody together. And really it's about the people, you know, like there are dozens upon dozens of people that I've been writing to for a decade now and some of them even more. And some are from overseas and some I've met and some I haven't. But it's really all about finally getting to have that handshake and that bro hug and that oh my god that's what you look like. Holy nice to meet you. You know, and that kind of that kind of uh excitement and that that's what it's all about, right? That that's the connection part of the business that we love so much. And I'm honored that you guys are going to make it. We're going to record a great podcast live from Nashville, right? And I think that's going to be wellreceived, too. So, it's going to be a lot of fun. It's going to be a big party and we're going to learn something.

Yeah, 100%. I can't wait. Um yeah, just great to continue the partnership with you and Jared. You know, you guys are just It's so fun to do these and get the whole crew together and chop it up like we did at the at the April Lowe's. So, we'll do more of that for sure.

Yeah, we'll we'll do more of that and have it properly produced and we'll we'll do some more exciting things. We we have we have stuff to we have a good base platform to build on.

All right. Yeah. So, yeah, we'll have the we'll have the link in the in the show notes there. So, if you want to check it out. Um but yeah, let's let's talk a little bit about markets. So, again, you came on the show in April. We were talking about buying the lows and it's just been a pretty much a lockout rally until like a month ago. Um I just want to hear about yeah like how's how's the rest of the year gone for you? What were you focused on? What were we looking at? How' things play out?

So, Felix, it's it's a lot. It's very much for better or for worse and I actually like it more now, but I kind of play the same game every year and and and the game goes differently, but I'm playing the same game of trying to guide my clients into the sectors that are going to perform best over the course of the year. You know, I'm not a single stock picker. I'm very much a macro guy. I need to have the tailwinds of other markets at my sales to be able to put risk on and see the stars line up. So, I managed to, you know, get out into the gold miner trade. I wasn't I wasn't early to that. I won't say I was early to that. We've had gold on the pad, but we saw the writing on the wall that this was coming out of the tariff tantrum. This was the leadership. And so, we may have chased them a little bit, you know, to say, "Okay, we got to get these on the pad and figure out when." And but we were smart about being patient. We got into industrial miners. We got into gold miners. Um, we got in and out of uranium miners. But I think the real thing is that we traded the breakouts that were there. We had everybody in gold and gold miners for the better part of the year, if not the entire year.

I'm trying to figure out where it's going to shake out for next year. And I'm really encouraged that, you know, since this is, you know, the overlay is that this is kind of year one of the Trump admin, right? This is kind of a snapshot of how the markets reacted in totality to the regime change of Donald Trump and presidency. So, I got a feeling, Felix, and you could tell me if I'm batshit crazy, but I got a feeling that the leadership that we see on the screens today might rhyme with the leadership that we see for the next couple of years. So, I while I wouldn't be shocked to see leadership again in metals and mining, it does not feel like the gold and silver rally have done anything but gotten started in 2025 in the big picture. And we're going to have some eb and flow to manage for sure. But it seems to me like that that is a trade that you have to at least pursue and manage the risk right and then the beauty about this administration whether you whatever you think about it or not they gave us a lot of bull markets to chase you know like we've got the AI bull market that's not going away even though it's in a bubble we've got the commodity bull market with onshoring of production and things like that which is gooseing industrials and we've got cheap oil prices for the first time while all the other commodity prices except for grains are rallying which is really you know another tailwind for the miners etc etc.

We've got solar stocks we can chase. We've got pot stocks that just got rescheduled. You know what I mean? Like, I'm gonna trade the breakouts next year and I'm going to expect bull market activity, especially if the president is gonna he ain't giving up this ghost of lower rates, right? Like, he's not going away. We have 10 trillion dollars in US treasuries to refi in 2026. And he's a finance guy, right? And he's not going to let us refy at 5% in the 10 year, is he? So that's why I, you know, I I you're not gonna get me to bet against him getting rates lower now that he's got Hassid in the seat now that he's out there barking about how Powell is so far behind, you know, with the rate hikes and holding up progress and there's no inflation and you're like what? He's really saying that like he is, but that's what the color of the sky is in his world, you know. So I I suggest that investors take a picture of it and understand what he's looking at because he's not going to back down. So, I think that's the stuff that's important.

Yeah, 100%. Um, yeah, the precious metals one is interesting. I'm curious about your perspective as as a trader because, okay, in 2025, yeah, you had the the gold miners run. You you rode that. You had gold break out durably. Right now, you have silver kind of doing its thing right now. And then I I'm curious about how you decide how to think about this. Do you think about just doubling down on the leaders that kind of started this whole thing or do you go out the degeneracy tail and you start to buy the platinums, the palladiums and kind of go for the catchup trade? How do you think about deciding between the two?

Okay, so that there's a those are great questions because I've wrestled with that strategy myself and the way that I've come out with it is that I'm sort of very happy that I've got the baseline of owning physical gold and silver going into this. Right? So that that was the bedrock of the trade. Uh I've had my subscribers in gold forever for several years now. So we had that on the pad coming in. Right. It was obvious on the technical move in gold miners after a consolidation that that was a trade that we could pursue and we got into that. So like it's like we're I feel like you know markets don't go the way you want them to, right? You get what you get. So, I'm kind of blessed that we're in that lead car that we navigated into the other one into the some of the other cars of industrial miners. I've been long Bitcoin from the lows of this recent move and you know, I'm trying to trade those store of value trades, but no, I am not chasing platinum around the yard and I'm not going to go buy palladium when, you know, there there's not those are really tiny markets, right? I quoted platinum and palladium when I was at Goldman Sachs and all I did was lose money. You know what I mean? Like so now investing in them I kind of watch them from a distance and I respect them but again I use them as kind of the speedometer on my you know gold and silver and prec uh precious metal miners kind of thing right I've tried to get into silver and failed I bought the breakout from 50 I got stopped out on a trade you know what I mean so I don't have silver on but I still I'm positive that you know with silver trading the way it is we're going to get one two or 10 opportunities to buy it next year a lot cheaper that's for Right. So, it's going to be all over the map.

And I think that if we stick to the tactical positions of let's wait until they're offered and let's not just rush in and pay last sale, that's where, you know, the patience and time for a trader pays off. So, we're that's what I'm doing. I'm not I'm not moving money into platinum and palladium. Also, because I have a lot of what you know, a lot of younger traders and subscribers that are all asking me like, "Okay, how do we get on in on this trade?" And I'm like, aren't we in this trade? Aren't we in this trade? We're long metals in mining, right? I'm long XME, I'm long GDX, we're long gold, you know, you got to be long everything. And for me, like I don't, you know, like I can get rich a little bit slower and know that I'm in the right trade and feel a lot better about it. You know, I was just me and Jared Dillian were just going back and forth about like what commodity might be the biggest percentage gainer next year, right?

And when you try to think about that from last sale from where they're going to get marked to in gold, silver, platinum, palladium, oil, corn, like I don't think that it's going to be I I it's I don't think that silver is going to end the year being the best performing metal again next year. You know what I mean? Like I think that it may trade to 100. It may trade 125, but I got a feeling that the volatility is going to be really hairy and that something else is going to outperform it in the end. So, that is a that is a really tough that's going to be a fun race to watch and then be on next year is what I'm saying.

I I've noticed you've had a couple comments too of poking the the retail bears or not even the retail bulls actually, but you know what I mean about silver where they're just kind of you got the parabolic move happening right now and everybody's talking about being geniuses. There's a new cheer for every handle, Felix. Woohoo 62, we we 63. You know what I mean? More more at 64. High five at 65. And you're like, you guys have never won a sporting event in your life, have you? You've never won before. If you never had winning trades, and you don't know what this feels like to be long securities into new all-time highs. We do it all the time here on the Navigator. So, we don't put on cheerleading outfits when it happens, right? What we want to do is be eyes wide open. And that's what I detest about it is that I'm long and bullish and I post a chart of silver with a double top saying, "Hey, can we just mine the risk here? there's a double top and everybody's bullish and long. Can we just think about this for a minute? And the silver guys come out of the wood WHERE YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THE DEBASEMENT TRADE, YOU IDIOT. And you're like, the out of here. You know, and so that that part about silver rookie retail tribe is maddening, but it's they're going to be what they're going to be and it's fine. You know what I mean? It's like getting along with people that are in the boat with the same attitude as you and not everybody's playing nice.

So, it's like, you know, my thing for that, Felix, is I'm not I'm not just a jerk for a reason. I question why would you create hysterically bullish sentiment in a security that you're long? Why Why would you do that? That's dumb. Okay, that's dumb. I don't care what anybody says. It's dumb trading. So, that's why I choose not to do it. And I look at the guys that are like, "You guys are just asking to get, you know, you're asking Mr. market to hand you your ass one day and you're not going to get it back, you know, because the one thing that's going to happen is silver is going to peak and back off 50% and nobody will have made a sale. Yeah, that's going to happen. So, everybody's going to be like, "Yeah, we're so rich. Yeah, we're so rich." Just like the Bitcoin guys were at 112, right? I don't hear a lot. I wanted to bring up Yeah, crypto. It's that's the story of the age. Like endless round trips. Don't hear it anymore, right? Don't see any laser eyes. don't have anybody telling me I don't understand, right? And they've all been humbled, right? And it's going to happen to the silver traders and for their sake, I hope that it's on the way from 200 back down to 100. That'd be fine with me. But whatever it is, that's coming.

You mentioned oil a bit ago, which is probably the complete opposite of what we just talked about. It's in it's in the 50s and just despondent. Um, yeah. What do you think about the oil market into 2026?

You know, I wouldn't bet against it because it'll be one of those like head smackers if you're like, man, they literally went in order. gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and if oil goes and you don't buy it, you fell asleep as a trader. So, the beauty of that trade is that it's not like a runaway train. It's kind of sitting here bottoming. And you can kind of feel that out. You know, when when it gets weaker at the lows under these conditions, it feels safe to me to stick bids in because it doesn't feel like it's collapsing. I don't think we're going to have this big global recession or anything like that that's going to knock it into the 40s. So you can you can try buying value in oil, which I very much like. It's very different from my usual strategy. So um while there are plenty of refined products in the harbor and and there's no supply constraint or anything, I just wouldn't be shocked if there was some kind of exogenous shock maybe that spiked oil 20 bucks and then we're then all of a sudden it's in play, right? It's above the moving averages. You got people betting on it and it gets exciting.

So I got an eye on it and you know from 55 bucks man you know in terms of what a percentage return could have next year and the stocks as well and you know ENTP stocks have been consolidating for like five years now you know in the same range and we've had kind of a cool breakout within oil services this year and then you've got some other cool breakouts in all the other energy sectors you know like uranium and solar blah blah blah and so you're like man you know why aren't we just like focusing on delivering more crude oil for is data center power and all this stuff, you know, and seeing if that works. So, I I got a feeling that I don't want to count oil out. It's something that's tough to say has has bottom. It's tough to say that your money is going to be treated well in oil, but it's kind of one it's it's just the last commodity that really might go and don't ignore it. That's all.

Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense to me for sure. Um, yeah. Yeah, I'm curious like a as a as a macro trader like do you everything we've just talked about so far are things that have positive tailwinds in an inflationary environment as opposed to things like I don't know bonds or long duration tech like we haven't even talked about AI and and that whole thing yet but like are you do you are you applying a filter for 2026 where you're like I like things that have tailwinds if inflation starts to reacelerate here like we're talking on the day today pretty hot GDP print that just came out it's a bit lagged but regardless like It's looking like that's sort of the direction we're trending in. Are you putting that filter on?

Yeah. You know, a little bit. I mean, I guess to unpack it, uh, you know, I I'm I'm trying not to get too caught up in the economy because I I just don't think that there's a recession coming, right? Um, what I am I'm encouraged like I'm I'm still in that mode, Felix, of of saying like, you know, we we're just getting through this Trump first admin and I got a feeling that this is the going to be the stuff that continues to perform, you know? So, I'm I'm I may be oversimplifying it, but sometimes that's that's what works, right? And now, if you if you go back out and look at the AI trade kind of thing, it's like, man, every time Nvidia has had a chance to curl over, it rallies 15%. You know what I mean? And so, I I can't count that out, especially if my view is that Trump's going to have keep rates lower. Now, I think I got away from the question a little bit, but to just to like address like Mag 7 or AI bet or things like that, like they haven't backed off and it's just too easy for those guys to go put up a new headline about their next AI partner and have the stock rally 10%. You know, so I don't like to stand in front of that and just get bearish because they're highly valued and and they're popular, you know? They're they're still performing and they don't break down and they don't give you chances to buy them. So, you know, I have a lot of respect for that even though Max 7 isn't like a huge performer this year. So, it's going to be tough to sort out.

And I do still think that we're set up for a year. You know, I'm I'm trying not to I made a big deal in my newsletter when the Morgan Stanley guys went 60 60 2020 as the new portfolio. You know, I think that we're seeing a lot of that buying obviously on the screens now, but I got a feeling it's still a scenario where if like the plain vanilla mutual fund world decides to amp up their exposure 50 basis points in the new year, it's going to be the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose, right? Like Doug Casey says. So that you have to assign a a fairly I'm assigning a fairly large probability to that. I I still think that investors, they're going to look back at this year. They're going to look and see that gold and silver are not going down and they're going to say, "Yeah, man." You know, like I don't own enough. I don't There are people out there that have no precious metals, that have no metals in mining, that have no gold exposure, you know, because they've been riding Mag 7 and Tesla for the last 20, you know, 10 years, and it works great. So, I just got a feeling that we're due for a regime change there. Like, we've got a regime change in the White House. And I mean, he's handling things at like a a 180 degree opposite of what Biden just did, you know, like he's hands-on, pro business, you know, global order under his or under his regime. And so this stuff is going to be powerful to the markets. Really, really powerful. So, this year sent a lot of messages. And I'm I I still think that next year could be kind of a continuation of the same leadership. And I'm not going to count out that. I wouldn't I'm not going to tell you that gold miners aren't going to have a better year next year than they had this year. Like I think that that's even possible. Up another 150% up 200. Sure. Sure. You know why? Because I feel like here, this is important to me too, Felix. I wrote about this in my note. You know, the Japanese 10-year yields have been exploding, right? Exploding right up to 2%. If you pull up that chart on a long-term basis, you look at you can go, "Oh my god, if these get through 2%." I mean, 4% might happen quickly. Yeah. We've gone through the range normalization, but now it's like the upside is that's got spicy, dude. In the decade of the 90s, they went from 6% to 1% in that 10. You know what I mean? Like, so I just look at this breakout now and we've gone from 1% to 2% and it's a massive move. But on a breakout above 2% and 10-year JGBs, there's smooth sailing. And what do I think the like that's what I think can spike gold through 5K and silver to 100K, people will be like, "Okay, now we're really selling JGBs. This is getting very serious, you know, and that's what that's why like you can't rule out another monster year in in metals because I don't know how Japan is going to turn that bond market around and I don't know if it does turn around."

Do you like do you define that? Because again, like we kind of poked fun earlier about this whole debasment trait thing that's become so nar like the mainstream narrative and do you still is that still the main way to look at metals or is it through like another framing that's more accurate?

I think it's fair. I think I could say that I had it wrong where I was calling silver just a base metal when when it just refused to go along with gold. Um, you know, they finally proved me wrong and and it joined the clear debasement trade chorus, you know what I mean? just like platinum and palladium have. Um, and so I have to acknowledge that and like I said, I'm chasing it. I'm trying to get into the silver trade. I haven't done it successfully yet, but I will. And I think that that's the tip of the spear there, right? Is just is gold and silver. And I'm not sure, you know, I I like the way that they're jing back and forth, quite honestly. Like gold, gold, no matter what, as the moving averages come to meet it, the buyers of gold just get more aggressive, you know? So gold can't even touch a moving average. Same thing with silver is just flying away. Platinum and Pladium screeching new highs. I mean it it looks like we're at the beginning and we're it looks like we're in the first two innings of something rather than the last two. That's all.

Yeah, that's I mean that's always the hard part is to figure out Yeah. Are you in the first inning or the last inning? Like it's interesting to hear about what you're talking there about we we've been talking about like longtail runners that kind of catch up. And it feels like going back to the AI trade. We had that happen recently where suddenly we started to see stuff like like uh Oracle just go absolutely insane for a minute. Like I think Larry was the richest man in the world for like a week and then that was kind of like this local top and then it's just been this like whole churn ever since. Like how do you think about all that?

So I think that you know that I guess that gives me you know that that that to me is signs that the AI trade is topping like that that signs that we're in the late innings of that trade. You know what I mean? So we're in the eighth ninth inning of the AI trade and the first second of the gold miners trade. That's kind of how I'm looking at it. The Oracle thing gives you confidence. You know, that and the double top and semis and and Nvidia pulling back and forming a big head and shoulders. Now, it's about to negate that right now and Nvidia going into the new year. So, that makes me a little bit bullish. It's fought off a long consolidation. And then you've got investment banks coming out with higher targets now like 275 and people are really underestimating their ability to sell these AI chips and you're like, "Oh my god, like if we're underestimating it, it's going to go up." So, I still think that we're in the late innings of that where I'm really expecting like that that was a great blowoff top in Oracle and I don't think we're going to see that high at any point during next year. You know what I mean? Like Oracle is not going to race back to that high because there's going to be sellers left over from $350 or Oracle that to to cap it. And so I kind of think that that's maybe what eventually wears on the market and then maybe they do something dumb or there's you know the 10th agreement between two chip makers and you know that are kind of financing each other and we'll see what happens if that happens. But I'm not good I'm not smart enough to predict that stuff.

Yeah, that's fair. Yes. So then obviously we talked a lot a lot about metals and that sort of thing, but specifically to the equity sector. Okay. If we think late innings of the AIA trade, the other side of that coin is like let's just use the Russell as like the other side of that coin. Small cap value and that sort of thing. And you kind of pair on this this framework everybody's talking about these days of the K-shaped economy. So, so the top K which is funded by you know AI capex mag 7 stuff going crazy the bottom end like you know proyclical I don't you like just the bottom case stuff maybe retail like something like Lululemon you know there was an interesting headline the other week about how they they fired their CEO and it went up 10% and like those sort of companies to me feels like something that's the bottom leg of the K and I'm just wondering like do you do you see that sort of rotation happening over the next year like the inverse Kind of thing.

Yeah. You know, it could be it could be a case where, you know, Jared made a case the other day that, you know, that he likes like utilities and staples next year. Yeah. you know, and and so the the thing that I get out of the bull market that we're in is that, you know, we just went from a bull market where it was all semis and Nvidia all the time to a bull market where it's all metals all the time. And you know the semis are kind of lagging but you you see that healthy rotation where in within the metals trade there's also the uranium miners um industrial miners and then right behind that you've got a couple of tech sectors right like that then there's like semis but then you've also got aerospace and defense that are performing well on the year cannabis stocks are are creeping up on the year solar stocks are doing well on the year um you know so these this rotation is what you know if you would have told me that you know the AI trade is going to be kind of sideways for the last half of this year. Where's the stock market going to be? I would have been a little worried that it might have sold off but it's not because you know we seeing strength in miners and couple of other sectors are kind of blowing up. So that's bullish you know like when when when even when the metals trade sold off a couple of months ago, you know, the S&P, you know, took a minor five, six, seven% dip and we got right back on the horse again. So these are all these are all good things where the market is objectively proving that we're in a bull market. Yeah, that's gives that gives me confidence to stay invested.

How do you how do you discount the the risk with it? Like in in 2026, okay, we have this continuation of these rolling bull markets between different sectors. Like what are the red flags you're looking out for to say, okay, this is no longer true. This is now invalid.

Yeah. You know, it's like like one of the things that I said that I want to see in 2026 is the technical breakouts following through, right? Like they like the solar like solar and oil services are like good examples of that to me this year where in the middle of the middle late part of the year all of a sudden they gained gain strength got above all their moving averages and just started riding them higher. Right? Every dip was met with buying. They made new highs, higher lows, higher highs the whole way through. Like that's what you need to that's what you want to be able to check these boxes on next year. Breakouts following through. Yes. Not okay. I brought this breakout through 28 and I had to turn around and puke it at 25 because the whole thing came apart and then this trade didn't work and everybody got caught long. That sucked. Like if you if you know that's going to kill you next year, you know, if if we have all this herkyjerky stuff. So I'm looking for the actual breakouts to follow through. Like we're in ver ferocious bull markets, right? They're very clear about telling you how they operate. They do not give you they're not friendly. They do not give you a chance to get in at cheap prices in that route. They just keep grinding higher. You look at your balance, it gets a little bit bigger every week, right? Like we're we're just adding another percentage on to the trade we've had on and this trade is growing. You know, people forget that in the absence of that, you're not in a bull market anymore, right? So that those conditions need to be met. as simple and basic as it sounds, but it's a real thing in trading where if you're sitting there with these positions on your pad and you're like, we're not making any money. Yeah. Like that's a problem. Like you have to realize that like you have to wake up to the fact that you're not making money every day and say, "Wait, are the bull markets working or are they not?" And so that's where you can do easy gut checks in the bull market. Is how is this progressing?

So I got a feeling that that you know, we're set up to potentially have a really great year in metals and mining that way. So, you know, that that's without oversimplifying it, I feel like it's still early there.

That's an it's interesting to apply those those checklists to actually Bitcoin right now because it feels like it's it's failing a lot of those. Like you have the perfect narrative right