Hash Rate - Ep 132 - Real Quantum Computers on Bittensor $TAO (sn63 & sn48)

This episode reveals how real quantum computers are launching on Bittensor, creating a decentralized, incentivized ecosystem that aims to solve the world's biggest problems by making one of its most expensive resources freely available.

The Arrival of Real Quantum Computing on Bittensor

• Bob Wald, representing Subnet 48 and Subnet 63, announces the upcoming launch of real, accessible quantum computers on the Bittensor network in Fall 2025. Subnet 48 will function like a cloud service (e.g., AWS), allowing the public to run quantum programs, known as circuits, on actual quantum hardware. This initiative aims to bridge the gap between the high-cost, high-barrier world of quantum research and Bittensor's decentralized innovation ecosystem. Subnet 63 serves as a complementary network, exposing Bittensor's innovators to quantum concepts through algorithmic challenges.

Subnet 63: An Anonymous Launch to Test the Waters

• Bob explains that Subnet 63 was launched anonymously to gauge the Bittensor community's response without the skepticism often associated with the "highbrow" field of quantum computing. The initial suspicion was that it might be a "meme subnet," but it quickly attracted serious participants. The subnet's core function was to have miners run quantum emulators—classical computer programs that simulate quantum behavior—to test and solve quantum circuits.
• Initial Goal: The primary objective was to see if AI-focused innovators could be incentivized to pivot to running quantum simulations.
• The Challenge: Miners were tasked with solving "peaked circuits," a type of problem designed by quantum computing personality Scott Aaronson. These circuits are difficult for classical computers to execute but easy to verify, making them ideal for proving quantum computational work.
• Incentive Structure: Miners who correctly solve the circuits receive rewards, while those who fail are eventually deregistered, creating a competitive environment for optimization.

The Technical Challenge: Simulating Quantum Complexity

• The conversation details the immense difficulty of simulating quantum computers. Bob explains that quantum emulators on classical hardware face exponential increases in complexity with each additional qubit (the basic unit of quantum information).
• Exponential Growth: Simulating a quantum computer requires doubling the computational complexity for every single qubit added. A 39-qubit simulation requires twice the resources of a 38-qubit one.
• Emulator Innovation: Miners on Subnet 63 quickly moved beyond the default IBM Kiskit (an open-source software development kit for quantum computers) simulator. They began innovating by:
  • Adjusting precision (double to single) to simulate more qubits.
  • Switching from perfect but memory-intensive state vector simulators to less accurate but more scalable tensor network simulators.
  • One miner even developed a method to pre-process and simplify complex circuits, effectively "breaking" a challenge and forcing its retirement.
• Bob's Perspective: "We're trying to get these people to go from running large AI training models into running large circuits."

Bittensor's Power: Incentivizing Decentralized Innovation

• Bob highlights that Bittensor's core value proposition is its ability to accelerate innovation by democratizing access and providing direct financial incentives. He draws a parallel to AlexNet, a groundbreaking 2012 AI model for image classification whose performance was improved 44x over seven years by the open-source community. Bittensor, he argues, puts this dynamic "on steroids" by rewarding innovators with its native token, $TAO. This economic model is what attracted his team, Quantum Rings, to the ecosystem.

From Traditional Startup to Bittensor Pace

• Bob Wald shares his background, transitioning from 25 years in deep tech to founding Quantum Rings, a startup focused on building superior quantum simulators. His motivation was the technology's potential to solve monumental problems like curing cancer, optimizing global logistics, and developing new fertilizers.
• Quantum Rings: Before Bittensor, Quantum Rings operated as a traditional VC-backed startup, raising $1.6 million to build and distribute its quantum simulator.
• The Bittensor Shift: Discovering Bittensor was a revelation. The ecosystem's built-in mechanism for paying innovators to innovate caused their progress to go "vertical."
• Pace of Change: Bob notes the extreme speed of the Bittensor ecosystem. "If you haven't done something big this week, like you're behind."

Investing in the Bittensor Ecosystem

• The discussion touches on the investment landscape within Bittensor, particularly around DTAO (Dynamic TAO), which refers to the tokens of individual subnets.
• Investor Strategy: Mark Jeffrey, the host, shares his personal strategy of being heavily invested in subnet tokens (80%) versus the root token, $TAO (20%).
• Market Dynamics: Bob observes that while many subnet charts show downward price pressure due to miners selling rewards to cover costs, the APY from staking can still lead to overall profits. He emphasizes that investor belief is critical, as it drives the alpha token price, which in turn funds the resources (like quantum computer hours) that miners need.
• Future Outlook: Both agree that the DTAO market is far from price discovery and that a "breakout subnet" with a profitable product could attract massive outside attention to the entire ecosystem.

Subnet 48: The "Quantum Shoots" for Real Hardware

• The focus shifts to the highly anticipated Subnet 48, which will provide direct access to real quantum computers. Bob clarifies that miners on this subnet will not host physical quantum computers in their basements. Instead, they will access them via cloud services, similar to how AI miners rent H100 GPUs.
• The Open Quantum Platform: Subnet 48 will be accessible through a user-friendly front-end called Open Quantum, which completely abstracts the underlying crypto. This is designed to attract traditional quantum researchers, students, and corporate engineers who are not crypto-native.
• User Experience: Users can select a quantum computer provider (e.g., IonQ), upload their quantum circuit (as a QASM file), and run their job.
• Business Model & Strategic Implications:
  • Free Access: Public jobs, where the circuit is visible on-chain, will be free. This is a disruptive move, as quantum computer time typically costs thousands of dollars per hour.
  • Paid Tiers: Users can pay with fiat currency (via Stripe) for privacy (to protect intellectual property in their circuits) or to get priority access and skip the queue.
  • Crypto-Native Perks: Users can link their Bittensor wallet and stake $TAO on the quantum subnets. In return, they receive free platform credits each month, creating a powerful incentive for Bittensor community members to support and use the platform.

The Physical Reality of Quantum Computers

• Bob provides a vivid explanation of the physical hardware behind quantum computing, demystifying the iconic "chandelier" images.
• The Chandelier: The intricate wiring is not the computer itself but the control and cooling system. The actual qubits reside on a tiny chip at the very bottom, which must be isolated and cooled to near absolute zero to prevent external interference (noise) that causes errors.
• Current Challenges: Today's quantum computers are analogous to 1950s mainframes—scarce, fragile, and error-prone.
  • Cost: $5,000 - $15,000 per hour.
  • Wait Times: Hours to days to run a single job on a machine like IBM's.
  • Error Rates: 0.1% to 1% error rate per operation, not per program, making complex calculations extremely difficult.
• Investor Insight: The extreme cost and inefficiency of current quantum hardware highlight the massive market opportunity for a platform like Open Quantum, which drastically lowers the barrier to entry for research and development.

The Threat to Cryptography and Bitcoin

• The conversation addresses the existential threat that quantum computing poses to modern encryption, including the cryptographic foundations of Bitcoin.
• Shor's Algorithm: This quantum algorithm is famously capable of breaking widely used encryption methods like RSA and Elliptical Curve Encryption, which secures Bitcoin.
• Current State: While an IBM quantum computer recently factored a 6-bit integer using Shor's algorithm, this required extensive error correction. The number of high-quality, error-corrected "logical qubits" needed to break RSA-2048 or Bitcoin's encryption is still far off.
• The Race: Bob notes that progress is happening on two fronts: quantum hardware is improving, and algorithmic innovations are making the problems easier to solve. He cautions that the timeline for a breakthrough is likely not 20 years away.
• Bitcoin's Conundrum: Migrating Bitcoin to a quantum-safe encryption standard is a monumental challenge. It would require every user to move their coins to new addresses, a process that could take over a year and a half. Dormant wallets, including Satoshi's, would be vulnerable if not moved, creating scenarios that could cause mass panic.

Conclusion

This episode demonstrates that Bittensor is evolving beyond a decentralized AI network into a platform for democratizing frontier technologies. By incentivizing access to quantum computing, Subnets 48 and 63 create a powerful new model for accelerating research and development, presenting a unique investment and innovation opportunity.