Bankless
December 31, 2025

27 Crypto Predictions for 2026 (Ethereum Renaissance, BlackRock Chain & More)

27 Crypto Predictions for 2026 (Ethereum Renaissance, BlackRock Chain & More)

by Bankless

Quick Insight: This summary maps the transition from speculative mania to fundamental maturity for builders and investors. It identifies why 2026 is the year crypto finally adopts the rigorous valuation models of traditional equity markets.

  • 💡 Why is Ethereum poised for a renaissance while Bitcoin faces a sentiment crisis?
  • 💡 How will Real World Asset (RWA) looping redefine DeFi yield strategies?
  • 💡 Will corporate blockchains from BlackRock and Robin Hood actually gain traction?

Mike Ippolito joins David Hoffman to forecast a year of brutal consolidation and institutional maturity. They argue that the speculative era is over, replaced by a "2002 internet" moment where surviving infrastructure becomes the foundation for generational wealth.

The Fundamental Rerating "We are transitioning from speculative relative valuation methodologies into fundamental valuation methodologies."
  • Revenue Quality Matters: Not all fees are equal. Investors will reward predictable, recurring income over procyclical speculative spikes.
  • Standardized Financials Arrive: Protocols will adopt GAAP-style accounting. This transparency allows institutional capital to value on-chain entities like traditional software businesses.
  • Investor Relations Evolve: Storytelling moves to social channels. Companies will host quarterly earnings on Twitter Spaces to maintain community trust.
Ethereum’s RWA Renaissance "Ethereum mainchain will largely win the market for real world asset issuance."
  • Institutional Asset Issuance: Ethereum is the preferred venue for treasuries and private credit. This solidifies its role as the global settlement layer for regulated finance.
  • RWA Looping Strategies: Builders are creating ways to lever safe treasury yields. This creates a new DeFi primitive that mimics traditional fixed-income convergence trades.
  • Modular Risk Vaults: Infrastructure like Morpho allows for granular risk management. This flexibility attracts large funds that require specific collateral parameters.
The Death of the L1 Trade "The new layer 1 trade is finally dead."
  • Incumbent Network Effects: Ethereum and Solana have overbuilt blockspace capacity. New general-purpose chains face insurmountable barriers to entry regarding integration costs.
  • Vertical Stack Integration: Infrastructure providers are consolidating. Winning L2s will offer a "one-stop shop" including explorers, sequencers, and frameworks.
  • Corporate Chain Struggles: Entities like Circle or Stripe may launch chains with mixed results. Distribution is king, but maintaining a standalone ecosystem is an expensive distraction.

Actionable Takeaways:

  • 🌐 The Macro Transition: Institutional Convergence. Crypto is shedding its speculative skin to become a fundamental asset class. This transition mirrors the 2002 post-bubble internet era where utility replaced hype.
  • ⚡ The Tactical Edge: Identify the Compounders. Focus on protocols with durable income and deep moats. Avoid the "L1 rotation" and prioritize DeFi entities integrating with real-world credit markets.
  • 🎯 The Bottom Line: 2026 is about survival and positioning. The winners will be those who build sustainable equity value rather than chasing the next speculative token flip.

Podcast Link: Click here to listen

Bankless Nation. I'm here with Mike Epito. We're going to talk about what we think is coming down the pipe in 2026. Mike, welcome to Banklist.

David, it's been a while since we've done one of these. I thought you were angry with me. Wasn't getting my invites. [laughter] Oh, you know, I like to I like to rotate who the guests in or out. And, you know, I go in phases, you know, saving the best for last of 2025. Best for last. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. This is coming into people's podcast feeds on the 31st. So, this might be people's very last podcast of 2025 as we go into 2026. On that note, how would you rate or describe or evaluate 2025 for our industry?

2025 was the best worst year ever in my opinion. And what I what I mean by that is obviously was not in a lot of ways it was a sort of disappointing year. And the way that I would say it was disappointing was one, we certainly didn't get the bull market uh from a price perspective that I think a lot of us wanted. And we got new all-time highs in Bitcoin for some of the other majors even that did better than most of the other alts. Ethereum Salana had very minor all-time high breaks. They occurred at different times. It was generally confusing. I think this was one of the hardest years that it's ever been to be an investor in crypto, especially if you were out along the risk curve on alts and you you got destroyed most likely um unless you were very very lucky and picked one of the handful of five or six that actually did well on the year.

So I think it was very confusing um or I think it was very challenging from a price perspective. I do think that the industry makes more sense to me at least than it ever has. And I think the one of the themes of the year that I would call out is cognitive dissonance. And I think that there are a lot of people who are saying, "Wait a second, this doesn't make sense. The US just did a massive bear hug of crypto. We got genius this year. We've got clarity potentially right around the corner. I thought my bags were supposed to be going up." And I think what's confusing people is we because a regulated route is emerging. I think that a lot of this kind of wild west um very irrational market is starting to get much more rational and much more fundamentally driven and this is something that people have called way too early but I think that it's finally this is a market that's starting to follow a very predictable curve around maturity and I think what's confused a lot of people is there are very good projects in the space um that have continued to improve but the price has still gone down and I think that that probably going to be a theme that extends into 2026 as we transition from kind of speculative uh relative valuation methodologies into fundamental valuation methodologies. So there were there are very good projects in the space. Unfortunately, they've just been really mispriced.

And so I think that's going to continue to confuse people going forward in 2026. I think there are great projects that just started off with the wrong valuation. Um but I think the opportunity is if you can spot the compounders um and pick the right protocols then you can do really really well in 2026 and beyond.

Yeah. Yeah. I think if you told people at the very start of 2025 Ethereum hits an all-time high. Salana hits an all-time high. Did that Did Salon hit an alltime high this year or was that last year?

I think it was at the very beginning of this year. It was whenever the Trump point happened. Yeah. Yeah. January. Yeah. So it was January of of 2025. So, if you told investors, you know, both Salana and Ethereum hit all-time highs this year, everyone would be like, "Hell yeah, bull markets on. Let's go max bid. Put the chips on the table." And like, while technically true, it's not really meaningfully true. We like Ethereum just grazed all-time highs. This is like kind of a simulation in the sense that like, okay, whoever's coding up the simulation, we just need to make Ethereum touch all-time highs and then we can just bring it back down and disappoint everyone. And kind of similar to Salana, I think Salon had like a little bit more sustain, but like it wasn't meaningful in any particular way. And the only thing to like meaning meaningfully be above all-time high and sustain it is Bitcoin. And even Bitcoin is something like 30 to 40% off of all-time highs right now. So, it was weird in the sense that we got all we got the all-time highs. Yeah. But no one feels that way. It does. The market doesn't feel that way.

Uh, and I think there's also, we both know since we're both in media, there is a lack of a class of 2025 crypto. Like, who do you know came into crypto this year or even in 2024? Like, there is not really a class of 2024, 2025. Uh, and so all of the people in crypto are in crypto for three plus years and like maybe maybe the median is 5 years at this point. And so we have, if you're in crypto for 5 years, you have a certain level of expectation or idea about what these markets look like and can do. And I think those expectations have been dashed this year to your point about this is we were getting really mature. Things just aren't the wild west anymore. And a lot of the market expectations of being the wild west are not being manifested. And I think that has resulted in just like a low activity market.

I agree with that. And yeah, I think also where I would situate listeners is everyone loves an analogy to the internet. So here here's the analogy that I would use. I think that we are in the equivalent of late 2001 early 2002 for web 2. And what I mean by that is I think very very the the the parallels here are one during the the.com bubble you had a bunch of ideas and everything was a possibility and we're going to build the whole world on the internet that ended up being right but the path dependence and the timeline was certainly wrong and you had a bunch of uh buildouts of infrastructure and one thing that I you know I've been listening to a lot of uh AIdriven content and talking about GPU usage there was kind of the opposite of what's going on with GPUs today uh with dark fiber back in 2001 2002 which was there was a huge buildout of you know undersea cabling and uh bandwidth and all of these investors got very excited about the telos and they're going to own the rails for the internet and they just way overbuilt um and so and there was this huge huge bare market obviously in uh and people wrote the internet off for dead and it took a couple of years one for sentiment to build back up but also for a new class of builders to come in, recognize all of the infrastructure that had been built, and for new creative entrepreneurs to figure out how to leverage that infrastructure to build generational businesses.

The other theme that happened around that period of time was consolidation and to get into and bleed into 2026. What I think we're going to continue to see is a multi-year trend of consolidation um across a a number of key categories. And I think that surviving is winning over the next 3 years. So my recommendation would be to batten down the hatches. Um get as creative as you possibly can. You know, think big and try to be uh frankly I mean I think your strategy um as a builder is either to get acquired or to uh win and consolidate in your category. I think those are basically the two strategies that that you have available to you.

Yeah. And this kind of starts to get us into what we think 2026 is going to look like. And that kind of aligns with what my general idea has been, which is um a lot of 2025 and 2026, both of these years I think uh are just really good positioning years. Uh and on for the Ethereum side of things, I'm sure this metaphor extends elsewhere, but just like how I think about on Ethereum is like, you know, Ethereum, the L1 protocol actually had a pretty good year. Like **ZKevm's** everyone's talking about on the Ethereum side of things delivered way faster than expected. So maybe we are one to two years ahead of schedule on the **ZKevm** side of things. And that is allowing us to talk about lowering block speeds decently significantly in 2026. And there's just a bunch of technical improvements that the Ethereum protocol has that still need to get built out and and shipped and delivered, which I think happens in 2026. And I'm kind of thinking by the end of 2026, the Ethereum layer 1 protocol will have positioned itself more appropriately to capture a lot of the growth of tokenization, Wall Street, whatever, whatever like thing is going to come on chain. It's just going to be a better suited technical protocol.

And I think that's we can also talk about the the **Clarity Act**. Hopefully clarity gets passed in 2026 that is representative of the entire industry itself positioning itself appropriately to capture the upside of tokenization. I think you can kind of talk about this even Salana. Salana finally got fired dancer that's going to take a bit to actually integrate and for the market to accept that. I think it's like 2025 and 2026 are quiet positioning years where it's not a mania. There's like no one's truly getting really all that rich. If you if you are getting rich, you're that's idiosyncratic. You're an anomaly. Um, but we are collectively setting ourselves up trying to put the pieces on the table in the right way to position ourselves for value capture in further years down the line, which I think kind of aligns with like we're in a little bit of a post bubble era and now it's about reorienting ourselves to building the right things in the right ways for future growth.

I agree with that. I also I am firmly in the camp that this is positive. You know, I I think generally when people talk about this, there's kind of an air of, oh yeah, okay, it's going to make sense and all this stuff is going to happen. It was inevitable, but I'm not going to go 100x on my altcoin. And you know what I would say to that is I think it's easier I think it would have been easier to make money on a long-term time horizon, build real wealth in 2002 than it would be in 1995. And I would guess that a lot fewer people made money in crypto over the last 5 years than they might publicly telegraph because it's a really difficult investing environment and very few assets uh almost every single asset outside of really Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana so far have been a trade, not really an investment. And so I'm overgeneralizing there. I know that there are exceptions to that, but I I remain super positive. I think that we're finally entering an environment where you can build real sustainable equity value and the compounders that that win here are going to be super super successful. So yeah, I think I think that you know generally this this kind of Paul when you talk about the future and I I think it's the most exciting best time to be working in crypto and the last eight years that I've been working in this industry.

Yeah. Yeah. I think we do know over the cycles that when people get bored or like just washed out or just like the grind grinds people down, that's actually the easiest moment to just hunker down and stay put. And if you can just make it through the grind, then you are positioned. I remember in in 2019, this was when in 2020, everyone in the Ethereum ecosystem and it was basically just Bitcoin and Ethereum. Like there was also the Cardano and the Ripple communities, but whatever. There wasn't the Salana community or Hyperlquid, for example. If you stuck around and if you positioned yourself accordingly in Ethereum, you reap the benefits of DeFi summer and you just had to stick through the 2017, 2018, 2019 bare markets to get there. And everyone everyone else left. And so like the the alpha was free and abundant because there was no one to collect it except for the remaining like 50 of us that that were around. And I kind of think that that is going to happen again because people are getting ground down by the market and it's not producing the exuberance that again investors who came in three plus years earlier expected.

I agree. I agree. Should we get into some of the specific predictions for Let's do it. Okay. So you have byo 27 predictions across the industry across different ecosystems. Uh we're going to try and go through all of them. I think some we will breeze through pretty quickly and some we will hang on and really unpack. How before we actually get into these, how do you think uh we should uh prep the listeners to receive these? What should they know ahead of time?

So, I think that there are general themes to pick up on here and we got into some of these when talking about what we think 2026 is going to look like. A general theme is kind of the we're going to validate or invalidate certain ideas that this industry has held for a long time. And I find that to be very exciting uh because there have been a lot of ideas that have gotten tossed out. I think this has been a relatively irrational very early stage market where you haven't had to in most cases create real value and so there hasn't been a feedback mechanism. The rubber hasn't had to meet the road on which ideas are right and wrong. And I think we're going to see a lot of that decided in 2026 pretty definitively. I also think this is going to be a year of consolidation um across a bunch of major categories and we've seen this happen in the past. I'll call out one of my favorite examples of this is the prime brokerage space in 2020 uh 2018 2019 when I was first getting into the space you had people start there's a kind of a bubble in private markets around custody lending that type of thing and that you know there used to be tens and tens of competitors there and all basically concentrated to Anchorage and Galaxy Digital and they won and I think we're going to start to see that cycle play out um in a bunch of different categories um across the space so there's consolidation and And I think that there is a theme of equity markets and crypto converging. And I mean that in the sense of I think we're going to get things like equity pers in 2026, although I have doubts on how much that's going to take off. But I think there's going to be crypto is going to move towards a more fundamental um real valuesdriven way of uh yeah valuing these assets. But I also think that equities are going to borrow some things from crypto. Um and I think they already have. So I think there's the merging. Those are the big themes for me of 2026.

Let's get into the first one. This one is just topical right now. Investor relations will become increasingly important. Investors will demand standardized financials disclosures while investor relations will also borrow aspects of tradtor relations. It will also be more social media and community first and ultimately redefine what it looks like in equities. I think that's what you mean of just like community management with investor relations is maybe going to uh converge and then the traditional equities market is going to look at that and be like I think we need to do that too.

Yeah. I think the the mental model for people to have is when you do not have a publicly trading instrument as a business, you have one product which is your business and your product. As soon as you launch a publicly traded instrument, so a token or an equity, you as the CEO or founder of that business now have two products. You have your product in your business and then you have your instrument. And what that means is you need to actively constantly tell the story of what that asset is to the market to everyone. Narrative management narrative man and you don't have the luxury of just saying build it and they'll come. So you not only need to make sure that what you're doing makes sense to investors but you need to constantly tell that story and historically what that's looked like is this kind of old but I look at a lot of how it work looks in equities. There are parts of it which are really good. It's standardized. There are things like you have GAAP financials. So you have uh standards that go across accounting of every single lease business in the United States. Um but what you also have is kind of this thing that feels very outdated which is you know I have to go and I get my Zoom link and it's this like ancient piece of software with a bunch of analysts.

And I think that are you talking about the quarterly investor calls? I'm talking about quarterly investor calls. And I think what's going to happen is people are going to move. You know who actually did a good job of this a couple years ago? Coin shares. Um M and [clears throat] they actually did their, you know, as a publicly traded company over in Europe, they did their quarterly earnings for at least a little while on Twitter spaces. And you're starting to see protocols like or companies like Etherfy uh do that same thing. And I actually saw Vlad Tennov a couple of days ago say we're rethinking the way that we do investor relations and Robin Hood to make it more communitydriven, leveraging social media channels, that type of thing. So I think that crypto is going to look to equities to borrow certain principles, standardization, getting analysts involved, but I think equities on a longer time frame are going to say, "Hey, we should be rethinking the way that we're doing this, leveraging social media channels, bringing other people in, making it a little bit more of a spectacle." That would be my guess. And I think we see that both Coinbase and Robin Hood this year had these kind of like Applelike product abuse where it's a little, you know, jazz hands, here's our products. And that's definitely aligned with like what what you're saying is just like, hey, let's control our own let's tell our own story. Like we don't need to go on to CNBC and talk about these new products that we're releasing. We're going to host our own event and we're going to market it and publicize it and that's going to be, you know, it's for people who are excited about Robin Hood. It's like Robin Hood stands, but it's also Robin Hood investors can like show like, yo, we really shipped this year. Here's what we shipped. And I think like and you you saw Coinbase do that at least a couple times. One with Bass and also the most recent one where they unveiled a lot of products. It's just they're going directly to their audience about what they think they're excited about and why they should be invested in the respective company.

Yeah, I think that's going to be a big change for this year. I also have like two follow on predictions to this. Sure. Is I think there's going to be a bunch of noise around **GAP** accounting standards this year. But I can define that. What what is **GAAP**? **GAP**. **GAA**. Yeah. Uh generally accepted accounting practices. And I'm pretty sure what that's the stand for. Yeah. It's well it's pretty sexy if you're if you're an investor. [laughter] No, it's not really. It's just you know if you have uh there's the old there's an old joke about an accountant. So an account so someone is hiring for an accountant for their business. First guy comes in and says he says hey tell me what uh tell me what these numbers are and comes up with an answer and says okay next uh next accountant comes in uh hiring manager says tell me what these numbers are. Says okay this is what I think the numbers should be. Says next. Next guy comes in uh hiring manager says tell me what these numbers are. accountant says, "What do you want the numbers to be?" He says, "You're hired."

So, there's a lot of flexibility in terms of how accounting happens. And even in crypto data providers, there are very different standards. Um, and I know this from, you know, the work that we do on the data side of block works. You might go and see different revenue numbers come from different businesses. And there just needs to be an accepted uh set of standards for this is how we treat revenue, this is how we treat costs, this is how this all ladders into a cash flow statement. and you you have some amount of flexibility, but there are also just rules for what you can and cannot do. And so that's the treatment that that's the accounting treatment that companies that trade publicly in the United States get. Um the overhead for that for crypto companies is still too large. U we're not going to get there. They're going to be lightweight solutions in the interim. Uh but I don't there's going to be noise about gap accounting this year, but I don't think we're going to get there. The lift is too big.

Um, on that same note, I think that there's going to be there's already been a lot of noise around dual token equity structures. And my long-term prediction is that I think in 90% of these cases, it's simply not feasible. This was just a structure that was a relic of the Gary Gendler era of the SEC. I mean, frankly, pre Jay Clayton era of the SEC, but I think this was a relic of trying to make uh some regulatory arbitrage work. And I think you built a lot of mental models on top of that that just aren't working. And we've seen a lot of public fights break out like everything happening with a I think that's going to continue to happen. Um and you've also started to see frankly I think unis swap deserves a massive pat on the back here. There's a really brave difficult thing and I I have so much sympathy by the way. I'm not taking a shot at a at all. It would be really really difficult to unwind a lot of that work. Um, it's it's just a big org restructure and I think it's literally just a massive pain in the butt to do. But I think I think it's going to take some time for the market to demand this of protocol leaders and I don't think it's all going to happen in 2026. I think you will start to see noise. I think some protocols that frankly have less uh organizational or governance baggage follow the unis swap lead uh soon, but I think most protocols are going to drag their feet on this. But I do think you're going to start to see investors publicly question and potentially a negative stigma develop around uh protocols that have a dual equity and token structure.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think that is probably perhaps the big problem to solve in in 2026. It it seems to me that there's not a clear solution here. Maybe maybe I'm wrong about that. It's definitely worth investigating. I I do remember talking to Kane when I was talking to him and asking him questions about the Infinex sale. I was like, "Okay, well, with the Infinex token, is there also an Infinex equity component?" And he just goes, "F no, there is no equity to own there. The there's only the token." And while that's not a perfect solution because you still need the Infinex or to do real world stuff, the fact that there is only one instrument I think might be interesting to potential investors when it comes to like the uh the potential ICO meta that is unfolding behind us. One big question is, does this token that I'm investing in have an equity component? And maybe one of the ways that this manifests is whether or not investors are even interested in buying tokens that have equity components that they don't have access to.

Let's move on to uh number three. Uh Michael's third prediction for 2026. The revenue meta discussions will evolve towards durability and quality. Companies that generate more predictable revenue will be rewarded. For the first time, enterprise software will become sexy within crypto. give us a little bit more uh uh illumination of what you mean here.

Yeah. So I love that we have progressed talking about revenue as an industry. It is not even close to sufficient. And if you were to listen to equities like the mantra that I really firmly believe in is not all revenue is created equal. And I think that's the you see that turn up in conversations around public equities with the multiple, right? And some revenue gets a higher multiple than others. And it has to do with quality of revenue. So is there a a um you know how sticky is this? Right? Is the revenue recurring? Uh is it is 80% of my revenue based around one customer? Is the revenue highly cyclical? Um so there are all of these different characteristics that get sliced and diceed to understand uh you know what investors are generally trying to get at is the moat of a business and you know how much risk am I taking with this revenue profile? And you know, we haven't even gotten on to profit margins, but I think there's going to be one very similar characteristic that I think we keep falling for as an industry is when we see a revenue chart go up and to the right like this and then we annualize at the top or ascribe skyhigh multiples at the top of very cyclical revenue.

And you know when you look at cyclicals in equities land the counterintuitive part of that bucket of stocks is uh cyclical stocks look like they are the most expensive when they're actually the cheapest and vice versa. So there's a concept of overearning which is we've seen Ethereum fees do that. We've seen Salana Rev do that. We've seen Pump Fund do that. We've seen Axi Infinity back in the day. Do you remember the old uh you know annualizing saying Axi Infinity is going to make more money than Blizzard next year or EA? Yeah. Yeah, we keep falling for this as an industry and I think investors are going to stop giving highly procyclical revenue credit and I think that they shouldn't and I think that's what that's going to push us towards um and when I say us I mean the the builder side of things is to look for stickier higher quality revenue and you know what you've ostensibly been lacking in this space there actually there are businesses that have built like this but they're not you know the onchain products that have tokens and things like that. But I think you're going to see more of a push towards stickier, higher quality revenue. Um like not all revenue is created equal.

Yeah. Yeah. I think all not all revenue is created equal. Kind of the summary between your push for **GAP** style accounting in crypto and also this delineation between quality revenue and and low quality revenue. I think what you're saying is like L1 protocol fees is not revenue. It's something close and we need to figure out how to measure it and standardize it. And then once we do that, we can start to make evaluative statements about the quality of said revenue. And so I think what you're generally calling for is a higher resolution of the industry based off of what actual value capture is and we can make more specific statements as to how we analyze it. I feel like that's your the broad trend you're calling for.

Yes. Cool. Uh the next one, number four, the industry will increasingly push for clear divisions between equity and tokens. I think we covered that. Let's go on to number five. DATs will largely do nothing. Several will make acquisitions around infrastructure and attempt to transition into operating companies. There will be rumbings about lab entities going public, but this won't really take off. Uh Mike calling for a weak year with DATs. I feel like that's kind of like where the industry is right now.

Yeah. Are there any exceptions to this? I'm not really sticking my neck out here on this prediction, but I think that DATs are largely going to have a pretty tough 2026. I think the one potential exception could be uh Bitmine or Bit Miner Tom Lee's D. I think he's done actually a phenomenal job here. And I think he has an enormous amount of credibility with Wall Street. And I also think that's going to coincide with um a natural resumption in the uptrend of core metrics around Ethereum that investors will care about. So this like for the love of God, not financial advice, do your own research. Uh, but I think if there is one debt that's interesting to watch this coming year, I think it might be Tom Lees. I I also think I think you're going to see um DATs attempt to transition into operating companies that provide yield. Um, I think though there's kind of a I think a lot of cryptos going through this where some kind of the flashiest categories get this massive speculation premium and then when they want to make this transition into something that's more fundamental and is generating real value. Unfortunately, they have to rerate towards those metrics. Now, I think you could make the argument that several of those dats have already gone through that rerating. I mean the charts don't look great for most stats out there. Uh but I still think that I still think it's going to be a while before the market starts to reward that structure and there's a very different story to tell outside of I am you know soul plus a lot of extra beta ETH plus extra beta and I think it's just going to take a lot of time but I I do think you'll see some DATs try to move towards a more sustainable structure where they make acquisitions around you know uh staking or yield or things like that things you can do with blockspace like what optional ality is presented to you when you own a significant share of a proof ofstake asset and you are uh adding blocks to the chain. What optionality comes with that and how can you turn that into extra beta?

Exactly. Yeah. Uh all right. VC number six. VC investment will be anemic. Expect a slightly diminished figure from 2025. Uh $25 billion of 2025. Mike is predicting somewhere between 15 and 20 billion in VC investment. Interesting to call 15 to20 billion anemic.

Well, it's down, right? I mean, if you look at um 2020, we peaked in 2021 around 30 billion. So, I I would say it's on the downtrend um or 2021 was local maximum. We're still recovering from frankly a lot of the overhang there. Something that I would call out is I think that we are going to see the way that risk happens in uh equity financing in crypto doesn't behave the same way that it does traditionally. So it's generally assumed that you take more risk the earlier that you invest in a company, right? Because there's kind of like think of it as a as a as attrition, right? Only a certain percentage of companies make it from C to series A. Only a certain percentage B from series A to series B. So generally the idea is you when you risk it uh when you invest at an earlier stage, you're taking on more risk in crypto. that hasn't necessarily been true because you get liquidity so fast and also because so few token projects have generated real long-term value. And so actually it's kind of flipped. It's kind of the earlier that you get in the less risk that you're taking because you're going to be able to flip your token for a higher for a higher amount later, sometimes a lot higher. But I think what's happening now is that there are so many tokens and investors are demanding the the bar for investment is much higher than it used to And I frankly I just think the speculative money is moving elsewhere. I think now the onus is on actually creating value and that more traditional method of where risk exists and how it gets priced is going to take effect. And so basically this is my way of saying I think the the winners are going to continue to win and in these major categories like prediction markets exchanges borrow lend protocols dexes I think the strategy will shift from hey unis swap took off now there's a unis swap clone on salana and avalanche and sooie and I'm going to fund all those and flip those tokens. I think that's going to change to I'm gonna bet that UniS swap has a moat here and they're going to continue to win because it's getting harder and harder and harder to compete um because the barriers to entry have gotten raised. And I think you see that in Ethereum and Salana is a big like those two platforms like the barriers to entry now to be a general purpose L1 or L2 are so high uh that I think that those wins are going to continue to compound. So I think where risk and so I think you're going to start to see for the first time growth equity move into the space more.

Mhm. Like late late stage VC growth equity kind. Yeah. Exactly. I mean later stage like series B or C, right? That's what I guess. Yeah. Yeah. There's only I can only really name one of those which is Founders Fund and maybe Dragonfly too. 50T found that's been their thesis for a long time and they've done all that. Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty aligned with a of just kind of like a thought I've been having, which is like I don't think incumbents have ever had more power in crypto than they do today. Robin Hood, for example, you know, is is I don't know if they're kicking out Kelsey, but they're building their own prediction market and they own their the customer distribution and so that's why they can do that. And that's just an indication that like if you are an incumbent with customers, a customer base and network effects, you have so much power. And I I don't think that the power pendulum has been so in favor of incumbents more than it is today.

Speaking of prediction markets, Calian **Poly Market** will remain the champions in prediction markets. Other sexes will try to make inroads. Robin Hood will recede will succeed where Coinbase won't. No new players will make real traction. Pretty aligned with what I was just saying. I think you're saying the the incumbents are going to win here and there's even more incumbents than Khi, if you can call Khi an incumbent, Robin Hood. And you're saying even Robin Hood is going to take the line share of prediction markets. Talk to me about this one, Mike.

Yep. Uh we also skipped one uh which was also prediction market related, which is prediction markets will continue to succeed in 2026, but I would expect a turn in sentiment. I think there will be lots of accusations around uh kind of sports gambling as a rapper. It'll get negative press. I I think despite that volume, aggregate volumes will continue to climb. I've seen a lot of VCs call for 10x in market growth. I think it'll be closer to the order of 2x from here. And part of that is frankly purely sentiment and having watched some of these play out in the past. But I saw you know no shade to **Poly Market** and Shane uh but I saw he did had a glowing 60 Minutes interview uh that is a very surefire recipe for you [laughter] know uh that that train doesn't continue forever and I think there are real challenges with prediction markets. So I think that we're going to start to see we're kind of at a local maxima um is the way that I would think about it but still very bullish on the structural trend. And yeah I think that the winners are going to keep winning. I think we have this broken mental model of hey, we just watch Kulshi and **Poly Market** define this category and take off and they have all these partners, but I'm just going to go fund

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