2026 Crypto Predictions with Haseeb Qureshi

On the whole, I think the easiest out of the box solutions are all for EVM chains because they've just existed the longest. They just have the most tooling and the most kind of robust ecosystem. Minute differences in technical architecture have seemingly gone to the wayside in exchange of like, okay, who's actually making money or like who's using this or like.

So, you would say that this technological indifference would extend also to EVM and SVM. It's not just L1 L2.

Welcome back to the rollup. I'm Robbie.

I'm Andy.

Rob and I met at the University of Florida in 2017 where we first found out about digital assets. We learned a lot along the way and we're bringing you face to face with the leaders of our industry. Sit back, relax, and enjoy today's episode.

Happy holidays. Happy New Year, man. Merry Christmas. Always going to be celebrating Christmas on the 30th. Glad to be doing it with you boys.

Did you have a nice holiday, Jim?

I did. It was very lovely. Um but yeah, I can see you guys are very in the Christmas cheer. I respect that.

We are. doesn't doesn't want to let doesn't want to let go of holiday. I I feel that. I feel that. We're going to run it all the way through to uh through the new year 2026.

Yeah, we should just go till like February. Just keep doing Christmas stuff. We're gonna go we're going to be live all the way until uh till ETH Denver.

Nice. See, man, you came on. You gave us some great predictions last year. It feels like a natural place to start from a a reflection and start with how things went last year and uh what went right, what went wrong.

Well, um if you zoom out on 2025, I technically still still 2025, so we can still get our asses kicked in the last couple days, but I'd say overall um it's been a very mixed year. You know, we went into the year with enormous amounts of optimism. We had, you know, presidential election. we kind of got everything that we wanted in the wish list of regulation. Um, and yet prices, you know, Bitcoin is like down slightly on the year. Uh, alt really got kicked pretty hard. Everything besides, you know, if you actually if you look at ETH, you look at XRP, they had pretty good years. Uh, BNB had a pretty good year, but almost everything else in the alt complex really just got kicked in the teeth.

So it's a mixed year. It depends on really what you owned. Uh, the more that you own the majors, the less you have to complain about. Uh but of course this year has been the year of like everything else rallying. You know, NASDAQ is up something like 2530%. AI stocks have done incredible. Gold has rallied like crazy. Um and yet crypto kind of seems to have been left behind. So that makes it a tough year from what everybody was expecting going into the year. People were definitely market.

Yeah, that's right. That's right. So at the end of 25 or sorry at the beginning of 25 I wrote uh a set of predictions last year that that got a lot of attention and um at the end of every year I try to do both going back and seeing what did I get right what did I get wrong about my previous year's predictions and then making predictions for the next year to try to keep myself honest and try to improve as an investor. uh because so much of investing is actually being able to separate out what's the narrative that everyone's telling, what's the hype that everyone's excited about and what part of it is real and what part of it is going to end up being transient.

So if you remember like beginning of this year, everybody was excited about AI agents. That was the meta, right? It was like virtual taking off, there was AI XPTt, there was all like that was what everybody was talking about. Uh, and we were still in the era of like Zerro and um what was the uh what was what was the word? Goat. Um and uh all all that stuff was going crazy. And so a actually most of my post and most of the stuff that I got engagement about was talking about how I think this stuff is going to flame out pretty quickly.

Now some of the specific predictions that I made turned out to be a little bit actually too generous to the AI meme coins. So, I claimed that I thought the the memecoins were going to lose market share to the AI Asian coins. That really didn't happen. Um, AI agent coins kind of collapsed like I think like end of Q1. Basically, they they kind of just totally got destroyed. Um, I I thought that it was going to continue through most of 2025. That was wrong. But I did say that they were going to die off by the end of the year. That was true.

I also said that these chat bots, these agents would become so ubiquitous that people would get annoyed by them. And that that one is certainly true. Twitter became true extremely quickly. Like it went from cute to I remember I had this analogy of it's like seeing an elephant paint that like the first time you see an elephant paint you're like oh my god that like that's amazing. You see that elephant just made that painting and then the thousandth painting you see by elephant you're like this [ __ ] these paintings [ __ ] suck. Like I hate I don't want to see any more elephant art. Um, and that's kind of where we're at now is that like every nobody is amazed anymore at what LLMs can do. We all just hate them and they're all like people are now looking for signs that this was, you know, painted by an elephant when they see anything posted that has an M dash in it.

So I I a few other claims that I made. I thought that um this idea that everyone's going to have their own trading agent or miniature hedge fund from AI, that's not going to happen. That was correct. uh there's going to be a ton of scams that are going to be automated by all these chatbots. That that uh was correct. Um and I I claimed that software engineering agents were going to be the most impactful uh of anything. And so far that seems to be true is that the you know software automation you see how much money anthropic's making and uh claude code and all of this stuff that's where the most product market fit is for everything in AI.

Um and uh and I said the memecoin stuff is going to be superseded by more serious decentralized AI players like you know Near Jensen uh prime intellect news research that seems to be happening. I don't know that it's like huge but that seems to be the case that most of the mind share and what people are talking about these days is is there.

Yeah. So other predictions I've made.

No, I was gonna say I think the the only positive development that we saw from the any of the uh kind of agent meta was just uh a realization that that wasn't actual agents and that whatever is going to h come next to get people interested has to be way better than whatever that was. So, so maybe that'll be a 2027 or or late 2026.

Well, so what I what I suspect will happen is that any time that people see a new phase transition in abilities, right? So like that was really the first moment that you could have a fully autonomous agent interacting with people online. And that was so exciting the first time that you saw that that crypto has a way that when it sees something that's genuinely new to just go all in and be like great, let's like make tokens around it and let's sell in a retail and let's like find a way to play a game around this thing.

So it's been a while since we've seen another phase transition, right? There's no, you know, people have talked about, oh, what about agents paying each other? What about, you know, some kind of agents becoming economic actors? That hasn't really happened yet. Um, I suspect that once that does happen that we'll see another speculative mania. Um, it might be smaller because people have already gotten burned by the chatbot stuff and they kind of know, okay, maybe that wasn't where it's going. But when they see agents actually being economic actors, uh, that's when I think we'll see another little mini mania, um, doesn't necessarily mean that's where the long-term value is going to be.

Uh, but we're not there yet. We're probably more than a year away from from getting to agents actually being economic actors.

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Another one that was kind of interesting, I don't want to kind of steal your thunder here, but this EVM market share kind of dominance one was interesting because we had all this hype around SVM L2s and move L2s and L1s and I mean, you know, we don't need to throw anyone under the bus, but not many of them actually, you know, amounted to much, but but in this prediction.

So, so, so you counted that as as definitely right.

Yeah. So, I mean, I think the reasons why I was right were not the reasons that I originally anticipated. So, I thought it's going to be this new generation of EVM chains, the monads, the megaes, uh the um uh of bar chain of course also launched this year. And I thought, okay, all these new EVM chains and Hyper EVM, all these new chains are going to increase the adoption for the EVM at large. Um that was not really the story. The story was more that like we were at in December of last year, that was the local top for Salana dominance, right? If you remember, it was right when the Trump memecoin launched that Salana hit all time highs of 300 something. I think it it it touched 300.

Um, and where the Salana transaction volume was alltime high. I think that was the day that Trump launched his meme was that we saw record-breaking volumes on Salana. And people thought like, okay, it's over. Salana is just going to eat everything. salon is just gonna be absolutely dominant and it's only a one-way ratchet from here and um actually that was the that was the top for SVM dominance. So if you look over time the market share of transaction volume market share of TVL market share of like uh uh rev fees me everything has declined from that point not not linearly but it's almost like mean reversion you know is that that was kind of a you know Salana had a hot hand salana is still good it's still very big it's still very important but it's no longer really seeming like salana is going to eat everything so um you know maybe we see another resurgence but at least right now it's pretty EVM remains the dominant architecture for blockchains.

Um, and so I think that was why that one ended up being wrong. I also thought that maybe LLMs are going to have something to do with it is that LM just know so much more about the EVM that maybe they're just going to make it so much easier to write uh programs and contracts than EVM. Uh, that turned out to not really be part of the story, but I think it may end up mattering more going forward. So, um, but I think one of the claims I made was that L1's and L2s are overcrowded. They're due for a shakeout and that people are going to stop caring about the distinction between L1's and L2s.

And this felt like the year of that, you know, it felt like the year of there's too many of these. Market is no longer giving credit for just having a L1 or N L2 that's lying in weight and doesn't have traction. Um, and this this whole idea that like yeah, users don't really care. Like Robin Hood was an L2, uh, Tempo was an L1, and maybe some CT people argued about it or some Ethereum maxis care about it, but most people don't care. Most people are like, "Oh, okay, fine. Corpo Chain is this, Corpo Chain is that, who really cares?"

Um, and so I think that uh that that that does feel like the year of these kind of tribal fights just mattering less and less as corporate interests start to matter a lot more than our kind of regional crypto battles, you know, like what um Freud called this the narcissism of small differences is like the closer you are to each other, you know, like Ethereum has more in common with Salana than we have with the rest of finance. And so, but the the fights between Ethereum and Salana are like the most fierce fights when really it should be like us against them. U but that's the narcissism of small differences.

So you would say that this uh this technological uh indifference would extend also to EVM and SVM. It's not just L1 L2, it's also like EVM, SVM. These are minute differences that we as crypto people care about within the industry, but broadly these are not things that differentiate six successful companies from unsuccessful.

Uh, yes and no. I think it it does matter in terms of a choice. Like the choice between L1 and L2, I think if you're a corporate, I don't think like you need to be explained why you should care about this, right? If I explain to you like, well, if you're an L2 as opposed to an L1, like, well, there's going to take longer for you to become progressively decentralized and you're using Ethereum security as you're not using it here. You don't have your own validator. It's like pretty it's like okay well I just wanted to put stable coins and get my c you know I don't know about any of that I don't I don't why are you talking to me? Um whereas if you tell them like okay if you use SVM you need to hire Rust engineers and you can't use these contracts you need to write your own. Um they'll say oh okay well I'll use the other one. You know like that's that that that is actually a business decision that I think a lot of these enterprises do care about.

Um, and that's part of the reason why almost all the corporate chains are EVM. Like EVM is less performant than SVM, right? So these are not performance decisions that they're making. It's interrupt and ease of adoption questions that they're answering. So I do think that question matters from a business perspective. But L1, L2, and you know, like to to which chain or community do you swear allegiance? I don't think these corporations really care. Um, unless they're being yelled at really really loudly. And the thing is like we're we're not as loud as we think we are.

Yeah. And I also think the a broader shift, you know, I've got this whole return to fundamentals thing, the the argument about L1, L2 or whatever it is. And even like some of the revenue meta stuff that we just kind of like, you know, joked about permissionless it it's all causing such a I don't know, you know, for lack of better term, reality check in the space. And so these kind of minute differences in technical architecture have seemingly gone to the wayside in exchange of like okay who's actually making money or like who's using this or like you know who's who which institution is adopting your technology etc etc.

Yeah. No I I agree with that and and the other thing I I didn't touch on it in my predictions but this was also the year of the Ethereum revival right I mean at at the time you remember Ethereum was just down in the dumps. people were talking about L2s being parasitic to Ethereum. Um, and I think that in a way that like that is part of the revenue meta is this idea that L2s are pulling the life force away from Ethereum and Ethereum needs to like you know kind of pull these barnacles off of itself and like you know emerge from from the depths and it kind of did that right with the the whole Ethereum pivot which you know now uh we can talk about it without it being so politicized but at the time it was like very contentious to say is it a pivot is it not a pivot blah blah blah. In retrospect it was totally a pivot and it was good. It was successful. They did the right thing by refocusing their marketing, their storytelling as well as the focus on scaling the L1 and supporting developers directly on top of the the uh the base chain. So that was probably one of the big stories of this year.

Yeah, we we called this a bullish reversal. Uh and this was particularly by the by the EF uh where they they did change their story. they've refocused uh on core priorities, improve the UX, uh scale the L1 and improve blobs. Um and so I I think as we look forward like okay well Ethereum is still the home of stable coins, the most stable coins around Ethereum. Uh the most DeFi all of these things that we're we're saying are going to be the key components uh for a successful project in 2026. Ethereum has most of those.

Um, and as we're talking about what institutions and companies don't care about, they don't care about L1, L2. They don't really care about EVM, SVM for maybe, you know, some resource allocation decisions. Um, it it you know, you mentioned stable coins are one of the things that's like, okay, I just want to deploy my stable coins somewhere. What do you think the institutions, the companies that were previously on the outskirts looking at crypto, kind of testing the waters, dipping their toes in, and they hadn't previously gone in, now they it seems like they're getting in. What are the things that stick out to them? It seems like Ethereum has checked all the right boxes. They just want to deploy their stable coins. What do you think is the what are the things that matter the most to those companies that are now coming in?

I I think the the things that they care about are pretty straightforward, which is one, I want access to customers, right? Where are the people who hold stable coins? I want to get my stable coin into their hands. Second, I want it to be easy to launch, build, interop, you know, everything. I want everything to be easy. I don't want have to build a bunch of stuff myself because like that's not my expertise. That's you, you guys are good at that. I'm not good at that. Um, and then third, they want it to be really easy to keep track of. So, they want easy indexing. They want easy accounting. they want to be able to like, you know, just have some ETL pipeline that they know exactly what's happening on the chain at any given time.

So, um, you know, Salana for quite a while had a lot of indexing issues. Now, those have improved significantly this year. Um, and so it makes it a lot more viable place for for people to be launching stable coins. But on the whole, I think the easiest out of the box solutions are all for EVM chains because they've just existed the longest. They just have the most tooling and the most kind of robust ecosystem. And that's why most of these people are choosing EVM. It's not because they love Ethereum or because they want to, you know, be Ealigned or whatever. It's it's purely a pragmatic business decisions that they see. That's where all the stable coins are. So, I should probably go there if I want to be the next big stable coin.

Yep. Yep. Um hiba another interesting one that I think that we also thought would have accelerated more but maybe you know didn't in in the same way that we thought you marked it as a wash was uh more applications following hyperlquid and creating specialized chains. Um you know we thought kind of like this app chain this kind of modular thesis app chain thesis every apple launches it own chain we're hearing rumblings about Poly Market maybe doing so due to some congestion on polygon or just other kind of reasons. uh you probably have insight that is not able to be shared and then others like lighter edex um you know even pumpf fun there was rumblings about you know are they gonna leave salana but none of these really materialized in the way that I think a lot of the kind of thought um but of course you know lighter hyperlid these are all on their.

Yeah I mean I just thought that one I thought would progress more by now as well.

Yeah yeah no it's it's a good point and I think part of that is the the reality that like a lot of these this infrastructure has scaled. So, you know, if you're on Salana and you're pump, you know, maybe maybe if if you're looking at January when Trump Bemecoin launched and like Salana basically fell over, you're like, [ __ ] we got to get off of here because, you know, I can't have the single biggest day of crypto trading on this chain in history have my users be unable to use my platform, right? But, you know, after January, a bunch of people fixed a bunch of stuff. RPCs became more robust. Um, like, you know, there's just like a lot of improvements that happen when people see these scaling bottlenecks.

Um, and then it's like, okay, look, is this the biggest priority? Is the biggest priority for us to create a whole new infra, create whole new indexing, create bridges, create, you know, all this stuff, like launching a new chain is hard. It's really difficult, especially if you're not doing it from day one. If you're migrating an existing application to a new chain that is brutally hard, right? And if you look at the examples of people who tried to migrate almost entirely failures, right? So if you look at uni chain, if you remember unis swap launching uni chain, people were so excited. This is one of the things that you know I predicted on our own podcast that uni chain was going to underperform. Here we are uni chain is basically a nothing burger. You know there's absolutely nothing going on on uni chain. unis swap is still dominant on the primary chains where it trades, but yeah, trying to move the liquidity and move the demand and move move everything over into a new platform, it's just too hard and it's kind of not worth doing when the core business is working.

So, I I suspect for a lot of these, you know, if you're pumped out fine, maybe even if you're if you're Poly Market, like launching your own chain, it's like, yeah, maybe I'll get around to it when I get around to it. Uh, but I have so many other things that are more important to just improve the product experience, get more users in the door, you know, regulation, like all this other stuff that is existential and moving chains is just very seldom existential.

Yep. Couple more on here. Um, airdrops move to a two-track world for project clear KPIs like DEXes and lending while L1's L2s move to crowd sales. You said you nailed it.

I mean, I I I think we don't, you know, say less, right? Monad huge launch. Um, Legion blew up. Uh, Echko got acquired by Coinbase. Like, what a year for uh that. And then also, if you guys remember in the end of our in the end of 24 when we did our 2025 predictions about a year ago, points was everything. Hyperl had just done their airdrop, the biggest airdrop in history. Points were like that like 2024 was the year of points. And that is also seemingly completely I mean not completely lighter lighter just dropped there.

Yeah, exactly. So points for KPIs like dexes points still rule the roost but for everything else yeah points are points are done. And crowd sales I mean mega eth one of the largest uh ICO raises this year and the list just goes on and on and on. I mean, yield basis, uh, the Curve Curve Curve Michaels project had 200 million, uh, subscribed for $5 million raise on Legion with Kraken. Um, and so you just had a lot of these big big launches.

Yep, totally agreed. Another one I thought was cool was uh, more optimistic UIs, you know, onboarding in browser wallets. I mean, if if if people were around in 2020, 2021 using DeFi compared to now, it is like it is mindb blowing. It is mind-blowingly better and it's still got a long way to go. But that I think I think yeah I agree that one was definitely nailed. Uh stable coin bill passes 2025 market structure doesn't that's crazy call because we're so close. We're so close.

That's true. Oh so close. And just a couple other final ones before we get to 2026. Fortune Fortune 100 companies offer more crypto project products to consumers under Trump admin. Um totally right. I mean, altcoin ETFs, Salana ETFs, chain link, Dogecoin, all these bills. Um, and all these all the big all the big fintech companies and a bunch of banks now offering stable coins, Vanguard, all these things.

Yeah. Um, yeah, man. I mean, close us out on 2025. I I think you were about you were over 50% for sure. I'll give you closer to 75% here. Accuracy. Maybe you could argue 80%. What do you think?

Yeah, it depends on how you count the washes. Um, so if you if you count the washes, 15 out of 24 is like, you know, slightly below 70%. Which I think is pretty good. I think it's pretty good. Uh, if you don't count the washes, then it's like 15 out of 18, which is even better. That's like my free throw percentage. So pretty good. It's like 80 something. Um, so uh I I think I I think I did pretty well. I think the ones I got wrong were giving a little bit too much credit to the AI agent stuff. Um, those are those are my main misses. But most everything else I I was able to get right. Um so I think it was a good year um for a lot of tech. It was a bad year for prices.

Yeah. And so I think like you know at the end of the day it's one of these years where the industry is forced to grow up. people are forced to look in the eye of what they're doing with respect to meme coins, respect to these, you know, agent slop coins and all this other stuff and be like, "Hey, what really has staying power here and what's just, you know, kind of a game of musical chairs that we're playing?" Uh, the music stopped this year. There's no more there's no more there's no more music playing for the game of musical chairs. Um, and so you got to actually do something productive. And I think that's the theme going into 2026 is like let's let's build some real [ __ ] I love it. Um the the musical chairs will come back. The music always comes back on. It's crypto, you know. People uh people get bored when there's no music playing for too long. But um at least for right now, that seems to be the defining vibe.

Well, you started us off with Bitcoin over 150K by year end.

Yep. But Bitcoin dominance decreases in 2026.

Yeah. Yeah. So, my my view here, I mean, look, it's going to be clearly a year of financial stimulus. Uh you've got rates coming down. You've also got a lot of the um a lot of the Trump policies actually kicking into gear next year that are going to be fiscally stimulative and I think he probably is going to end up doing even more to stimulate going into the midterms uh just to try to win some votes and you know kind of curry favor with voters. So uh I think all of that is going to end up uh creating a good environment for digital assets. I think also there's just some mean reversion, you know, is that like Bitcoin dominance at a local high and if you just kind of chart Bitcoin dominance over a long enough time horizon, that thing is just a, you know, it's a sine wave. It goes up and it goes down and a lot of it is just sinosoidal around uh sentiment, reactions, um, you know, vibes.

Uh, I don't think it's so much that like, well, you know, this was the year that we discovered that alts are worthless. Uh, I don't think that we discovered anything this year. I think it's more just, you know, macro kind of conspired, uh, and the fact that the AI bid was pulling away so much capital from retail out of the crypto markets. Um, but especially if there's an AI correction and you start to see less and less frenzy around, okay, the idea that AI is this up only category. Um, then I think the crypto bit will come back. It's going to be rocky. It's going to be ups and downs. Um but I think you know and and there's also to some degree just a catch trade with with with gold right and uh one of the things I was thinking about is you know gold has had a massive rally this year right crazy performance for gold um and at the same time SpaceX is going to be going public soon and of course SpaceX one of the things that they have said is that part of their monetization strategy is to do asteroid mining and of course if they successfully do asteroid mining the big hall for asteroid mining is like an asteroid that has a bunch of gold on it.

And I I I I read somewhere that I believe uh all the world gold, all the gold in existence could fit in a 16 yard by 16 yard cube, that is how much gold there is in the world like that is currently been already been mined. Um, if you find one asteroid cache that has enough gold in it, now this is very unlikely, but you know, this is this is literally one of the bullcases for asteroid mining is that like asteroids have very rare minerals inside them. If you get like a crazy event with asteroid mining, or we even just discover asteroids that have like, oh, this one has a bunch of uh, you know, platinum in it. Interesting. Uh, or a bunch of aluminum. Wow. Huh. I I bet there's probably asteroids with gold in them, too. And one indication that the like the world's supply of gold might double from one asteroid uh would send Bitcoin skyrocketing.

Wow. That's incredible because obviously there would be a capital flight out of gold and into Bitcoin. People see it as a very similar asset class, but it with a fixed supply. You can't go mine asteroid for more Bitcoin.

Yeah. So there's there's like weird asteroid risk to gold that people don't talk about a ton but like all of the all the the conditions are conspiring to make it happen which is that Bitcoin is becoming more and more ubiquitous and SpaceX is becoming you know one of the most val right now it's one of the most valuable private companies in the world and going to be going public soon and u you know as they increase the space uh the the velocity of uh these kind of asteroid mining missions before you know it might be on people's radars.

Wow, man. See, do you do you do anything like this on the dragonfly side or personal angel side going into uh you know investing in in space or any.

I do not I do not look my my rule is very simple is that uh I leave it to the experts when I don't know what the [ __ ] I'm talking about. I know I know enough to be dangerous but uh not so much that I should be underwriting investments. So yeah um I I think in anything outside of crypto I am the dumb money. So, I try to stay I try to keep it simple.

Well, before we go too deep into into your predictions for 2026, I am curious about some of your your biggest wins and maybe your biggest losses in 2025 for Dragonfly, if you can speak to any of them. You know, where where you are the expert uh in your in your um you talked about your personal predictions 2025, what went right, what went wrong, but yeah, as far as far as Dragonfly's concerned, can you talk about anything that went exceptionally well or things that you know fell by the wayside?

Yeah, I mean we've had we've had a number of projects that we invested in that have done very well. So we're you know we led the seed run of Athena, we did the SE led the CE of Monad. So we've done a bunch of stuff that's done really well, but probably the standout for the year is Poly Market. So I mean last year was just like if you remember uh so the the 2024 election um people thought that Poly Market was basically done. It's like okay, you know, yeah, you got all this volume for the election, but obviously everything's going to fall off and like no one's going to be talking about poly market anymore. That was the story at the end of last year. The story was that flash in the pan. It's one and done. We're not going to talk about this again. You know, come see us in four years. And prediction markets have gone from that to becoming just this meteoric category. And we actually put more money into Poly Market. Um I think it was like February that we committed more money. And this was against the course of people saying that like, hey, I think it's done. And I think, you know, there's no there's nowhere there there. Uh and that turned out to be hugely pressured. We first invested into Poly Market beginning of 24 before the big election runup. Um and so we're we're big we're big holders in Poly Market. Incredibly proud of what they've done because they basically created the category and kind of willed it into existence.

Um so that one is probably the biggest win of the year. Um in terms of biggest loss, I mean it's venture, so you kind of lose stuff all the time. The nature of venture is that wins and losses are um they're asymmetric in the sense that like you can only lose a 1x but you can win arbitrarily big. So in that sense like you know as as a VC we really don't spend that much time thinking about our losses because they just kind of don't matter. What really matter are the wins. U but if I had to say biggest loss I mean the one that's definitely