Santiago Santos: My New Crypto Investing Playbook

Gold doesn't have industrial demand. 90% of the demand for gold is jewelry and speculative. That's Bitcoin.

Everything else in crypto is competing and trying to be a technology stock, but it's not a stock. It's the worst of both worlds because it's competing to be a stock.

There's this kind of cohort of crypto protocols that are not nearly the same value as L1's or even L2s for that or some of these infra, but is producing significant amount of cash flow and revenue to the tokens with a very transparent open public programmable kind of format.

That direct reinvestment into the protocol and into the the instrument itself that measures that network's value is closer. Is it still not sufficient? What how do you go to the what is the next milestone?

Welcome back to the rollup. I'm Robbie. I'm Andy. Rob and I met at the University of Florida in 2017 where we first found out about digital assets. We learned a lot along the way and we're bringing you face to face with the leaders of our industry. Sit back, relax, and enjoy today's episode.

Santiago, what's going on, man? How's it going, guys? Thanks for having me on.

Yeah, man. The great valuation disconnect, man. Been a hell of a last couple weeks in the market. I should have worn my green Patagonia vest repping Inversion.

You know, the meme of like you're a fundamental midcurve. I think that's where most people place me now, that I've been midcurving the greatest generational trade that crypto is.

But you know I started being more vocal about the disconnect in valuations and adoption in the space. As someone that has invested I love venture. I think there's asymmetric opportunities. It is hard to justify these valuations and you know since I started being more vocal about it and saying some of the quiet parts out loud the market has just done that. looks down 40 50% and I know I just which is different than saying I still believe in the technology I still believe very much in the potential of it but there's just certain things that structurally have made it difficult for tokens to capture value a lot of it is regulatory some of it is design from projects that started early on in 2017 and you know you even saw Vitalic say something that a lot of people have been thinking about as it relates to the rollup centric architecture.

Yep. So anyways, that's I think you guys have covered a lot of that. I'm here to just hopefully make it a engaging, entertaining discussion.

Yeah, absolutely. You know, I think in a lot of ways it's it must be vindicating to to to see a lot of what you've been saying play out. You know you also said that a lot of these things are going to get adoption but may not acrue that value you know from that adoption to their token.

You know just today we saw Black Rock you know this news of them buying unis swap you know this isn't coming from the fee switch or anything but you know they have a real business they have a balance sheet and now there's institutional investors that are taking a look at them and you know seeing that as an investable asset class. Does this start to shift your perspective on the thesis or how do you anticipate this particular trend evolving?

Well, crypto is an very investable asset class, will continue to be an investable asset class. The question is how do you express that? You want to go along stable coins. You're not going to buy USDC, right?

So you have to you have to put numbers on the board. I mean at at some point you start showing revenue and traction and and you get grounded to reality.

So I've been positioned on what I think will continue to like my trade and where I'm positioned over the next 15 years like industries that the crypto will continue to pr proliferate. It is very valuable infrastructure that is going to replace traditional financial workflows.

A lot of that is stable coins. A lot of that is tokenization. like money is moving just in time in real time. That's like just in time manufacturing, just in time money. Like don't overthink it.

Now, how the nuance is how do you position yourself? And I think about like crypto like AI is super impactful, but you want to be positioned in the right side of the trade. What is the not the right side of the trade is infrastructure commoditizes.

Like think about you're using Claude and Chad JBT and subscribe to Manis and like you have a suite of productivity that you're paying a very fraction like they're competing against each other and they're investing all this money in capex. It creates a ton of consumer preference, right? Because you Andy, you Rob, like you're just now way more productive. You don't need to hire 30 people.

What I'm trying to say is the the the cost curve has gone down dramatically for the consumer. That's what technology does. So you got to be careful to not get too excited in yeah AI is going to be totally transformational and crypto and stable coins are going to be totally transformational but are you investing in that the like are you going to basically lose your a lot of your money because you bet on the wrong side of that right like if if said differently to to round like ground the conversation is what do you think outperforms a bag of venture investments in AI startups or the S&P P500 that is able to fire 30% of its workforce and increase margins like what is a better investment over the next 5 years. Like what outperforms?

Might depend how good of a venture investor you are.

Well, you know, ventures power law. So, there's only like five venture funds that actually outperform the S&P.

Yeah, exactly. It's probably it's the S&P. It certainly is. And that's your and that's your thesis. I remember when you said when you were getting excited about Western Union, people thought you were um you were just the antithesis of somebody who should be a cryptobull.

But I don't want to get down that, you know, this rabbit hole too too much. So I say I think there's the there's the valuation disconnect. There's the tokens dynamic which I think people are really interested in. And then there's kind of like where we go.

So kind of just to round out the the valuation disconnect, we're kind of pushing this idea of well obviously I open this up saying revenue meta yada yada. That's obvious kind of this convergence point between legacy finance and defy being neo finance is really where there's actual value being captured by applications on chain at scale.

I know you're an early investor in pump. We're super big hyperlquid bulls. We are super bullish on Sky. even things like Etherfy, things like A if they can sort their token, which we can talk about in a bit.

There's this kind of cohort of crypto protocols that are not nearly the same value as L1's or even L2s for that or some of these infra, but is producing significant amount of cash flow and revenue to the tokens with a very transparent open public programmable kind of format.

So there's a valuation disconnect in terms of the the total valuations of of chains and of crypto and then there's also a valuation disconnect you know in inside of the industry. How do you think about that kind of like that that evolving and allocators actually changing where they want to put capital in the coming you know months to years as it pertains not just like within crypto macro wise but within crypto as an industry inside of it?

Yeah. a couple things and I'll I'll rattle them off in order of importance. I think a basket of companies that use crypto in the public markets outperforms any token any basket of tokens within crypto that is you know figure that is Visa that is stripe when it IPOs CLA all these businesses that are using this infrastructure that we've built over the last 10 years uh will be made radically efficient they will cut their cost 20 30 40%.

It's dramatic as dramatic as AI that those equities outperform the tokens that are not capturing value because a token is not designed to capture and compound in the way that a stock is. And that's by virtue of the regulatory regime. Like we've never designed tokens to compound, acrue and compound value in the same way that equities do. And we can get into that.

So that's point number one. Like equities companies that use crypto are going to be efficient and they're going to outperform the token. Second within tokens there is a very big disconnect between where value is being captured and the valuation.

So layer ones the fee that layer ones are capturing has gone down dramatically. Look at Ethereum. A large part of his techn like techn like the fees in the L1 have come down a ton and the value capture has gone down but you know they still are a 2003 $300 billion asset.

So there's a great chart by 1KX which says the percentage of fees that are captured in the system are flowing upstream. They're flowing to D5 protocols. They're flowing to deepen protocols. Meanwhile at layer ones the pecap has gone down but they still represent 90% of the valuation like collectively the market cap excluding bitcoin 90% of it is layer ones but layer ones are capturing less than the share of the revenue and so to me that's like a that that is the trade it's go long applications short the infrastructure but it's tough because infrastructure historically has been where most investors, more venture investors have made the most amount of money that you're early in Ethereum, you're early in, you know, Ripple, you're early in and so that's at some point that breaks.

You know, I don't short because markets are not rational. And I don't want to be caught on the GameStop phenomenon of just getting blown out. They're liquid markets. There's a number of reasons I wouldn't advise anyone to go short, but I do think that at some point some applications are criminally undervalued.

The question is is is a token the best way to express that trade thesis or you know are you better off investing in the lab's equity if you can get a hold of it because there's a lot of value leakage. You saw it in a last year. You saw it in unis swap. you like I'm hopeful that we can create we can I'm going to say the quiet part out loud tokens should be equity should be designed like equity and we should call it like that and and then figure out and work backwards from there and say what do we need to do from a regulatory standpoint to make sure that there's no value leakage Coinbase bought the team behind Tensor they didn't buy the token they bought the the equity behind it that tells you everything you need to know about the disconnect between in these tokens tokens and someone might say like there's a couple of people that came at me because I said look tokens don't compound in my mind they're uninvestable in its current form they're not investable and someone says wait a minute Ethereum has a fee burn you're midcurving it yet again I said okay let's talk about the fee burn right you have all this activity there's the world's going to come online the institutions are coming to Ethereum you're an idiot because the token is going to be burned and that reduces the supply you've you don't understand basic economic principle and said well yeah okay I get it not so fast right why because the fee burn is uh is just that right it's like you need to it's not reinvested into the Ethereum ecosystem directly right you could argue okay like if Ethereum produces a billion dollars of fees that year that gets distributed to people that are staking and you know validators and so that that's just money out the door and someone could say well that money is going to get reinvested in some way shape or form back into the ecosystem but that is a very handwavy argument.

I as an investor don't like that because what I want to see is if a company produces prop excess cash flow, it reinvests that. It either does a share buyback, it either does a dividend, if it can't use product, if it can't find productive uses of capital, but most of the time, if a company has $10 million in profit, they're going to go, you know, reinvest that. They're going to use that to acquire more customers. They're going to use that to buy another business. They're going to grow topline. as as an investor, you should just own that's going to compound.

Yeah. I mean, I think that's what really resonated with me about that second post. The first one was the first post that you did about the valuation of disconnect resonated with me because we, you know, this is our third cycle and we had you on back in like 2024 and like one of the things that you said was like just insulate your lifestyle and so you know we, you know, that was achieved this time around and we feel good about it uh given that that this cycle was really strong.

And so I, you know, it felt good to be on on the right side of that. And I think there's a certain euphoria associated with selling assets at, you know, close to highs and that's great and all, but then this this this next one about this idea of how tokens don't actually acrue the same value long term that uh equities do really struck a chord because when I was first kind of starting any sort of entrepreneur career, you know, there's this guy Taylor Welch, internet marketer, and his thing was always wealthy people set up essentially systems which over time as time passes they become more wealthy.

And the problem with crypto is that I have to be so focused on speculating and trading, buying and selling as as you mentioned so aggressively all the time. Now obviously if you hold some of these assets really really long long term since the early days you know you you know buy and hold still works and holds holds well for you know Bitcoin for e for some of the majors but a lot of these things are much more the they're it's a trader market not an investor you have to that's exactly right cryptos rewarded traders not investors correct and and I want to be an owner I I want to be a long-term asset owner that's my strategy right I've got all these different buckets but crypto it's hard to even do outside of Bitcoin really because the token is not designed to capture value.

That's as simple as that. Like if you want you want to you want to be an early you want to believe that adoption is going to happen whether pick your system of choice hyperlid ethereum an L2 Solana whatever and you want to make your money work for you. And unfortunately tokens are just not the instrument. They're they're like a I call them a fixed they're more like fixed income.

Why? because they're they're a variable coupon bond. Why? Because the coupon is how much gets burned that year. How many fees are produced by the system. So that that might go up, but it's capped. You don't own the equity that is compounding.

And I think it's going to suck that in 20 years time someone's going to wake up and says, "Holy shit." So, so you're telling me that like we grew number of users on chain 100x and stable coin in circulation went from 10 trillion to 100 trillion and somehow Ethereum went down 60%. Make it make sense.

What was the quote on the top of the article? Stable coin volumes went 100x but our fund only returned 1.3x or something.

Yeah. And and look, it's it's the unfortunate circumstance and anyone that's been on the investing side understands you want to get out the door as quickly as possible. and and that creates it's no different than Bitcoin miners, right? Bitcoin miners the calculus that goes into a industrial grade minor or even a retail miner. You see it in deep end, you see it in in Bitcoin is I'm going to spend this money for hardware and and invest and dedicate energy provision energy resources into a system that is going to pay me a block reward.

And I got to believe that that payback is there in a years or two years time because I I believe that what I'm getting putting in and putting out that calculus is positive for me. But you have a constant amount of sell pressure. So Bitcoin's a bit different in the sense that you believe that it has this sort of store value property and so you hold it like you hold oil and you store it because or gold because it's it's valuable.

Like gold doesn't have industrial gold doesn't have industrial demand. 90% of the demand for gold is jewelry and speculative. That's Bitcoin. Everything else in crypto is competing and trying to be a technology stock, but it's not a stock. It's the worst of both worlds because it's competing to be a stock.

So, from a momentum standpoint, from a attention standpoint, AI will for the time being capture a lot of those flows because it's just a more investable, sexier narrative than crypto is today. That might change. And second, your money's not working for you because you have these people that are constantly sucking money out of the system, right? It's all these traders.

And unfortunately this is kind of where I think most of the projects that were designed in a regulatory environment that did not allow us to design tokens in the way that they should be which is capture and compound this value are going to be at a material disadvantage to the next wave of projects 100%. And and the question that I I just was talking to the the question that I find myself asking a lot of these longtime builders is like, "Hey, if you could design your project today, how would you design it differently?" And most of the time it comes down to the structure of the token.

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Well, just imagine Andre Cronier's uh 2020 valueless governance token medium article being written today as as a launch of a new asset, right guys? Like I mean imagine that. Yeah, it would look entirely different.

And so Santi, could you unpack what some of those structural differences are? How do the equities compound value into their into their equity today? And what would the changes have to be to a token structure to compound value into a token?

Yeah. So, so when you own a token, it's not a claim on the future cash flow. Equities, you you're you're owning um a claim on the future cash flow system. Tokens again distribute fees, but those fees are not direct. there's not a mechanism to directly reinvest the fees that are generated in a system.

While it is true like Ethereum moved a step closer by introducing this fee burn uh with the IP559 three years ago, um the the the point I'm trying to make is fee burns can be confused to have this property of equity, right? Because you know more activity, more fee burn, what have you. But um the issue is the reinvesting piece.

I think you would want to have a system where um in the case of uh for instance unis swap you have you dissolve labs the token captures the fee of the front end and captures the fee of the system and then and then there's the more interesting question is well who gets to decide how those fees are dis like either reinvested or distributed to token holders. Because in companies if you're Amazon and you have excess profitability or Google, Google's a good example. It's like it was so widely profitable in search and then then it said we're going to invest in robotics and AI and a number of different divisions.

And so if you're an owner of Google stock, you're you're investing behind a team that is going to be a steward of capital to reinvest that money. And if it at some point decides that it can't reinvest that money, it's going to pay you a dividend. But it's the velocity of the decisions like because in Ethereum I was thinking about this the other day it's like it took us like six years to do the merge and the speed by which that those decisions happen is really slow.

And I don't know what a good solution to for Ethereum would be for instance in these systems that are very distributed. I've always felt that you should distribute the token but not the decision- making behind the company and so that's why you see some projects that are a bit more centralized on the product like Salana or you know Canton or Hyperlquid like is there centralized teams that are you know hyperlquid the speed by which these proposals happen is quite fast and you could sort of you're a large part of I don't know if you ask like a 100 people that own hype I think a lot of the bet is like this is just a very cracked team of like less than 20 engineers that know what they're doing and they're going to make really good decisions for the protocol because they own a big part of it uh and hope that they're not going to sell.

But like the way they ran the stablecoin RFP, that's pretty interesting. That captures a lot of value. So it's not a perfect solution but I would say like um you probably get comfortable around having a very centralized organization that is running decisions and deciding where where to allocate the excess fees and not just simplistically saying we're going to distribute um the fees that get generated in the system to people that are not long-term holders. You know what I mean? And that's a problem that I see. You know I think there's a lot of me in these systems. There's a lot of parties that are not aligned for the long term. They're not stakeholders. They're just like extracting revenue and then not reinvesting it into the system.

And so, um, the last thing I'll do is probably collapse the labs and equity. And look, there's a reason why deepen hasn't traded well because like something like Helium, the market understands that. Like that that's sort of the other point I want to make is the market's not dumb. It sees that and says, "Wait a minute. I actually don't own the the goose that makes like the golden goose here. I'm owning a token that there's some fee burns, but I don't understand." And and that's the the the Spartan had this like valueless governance tokens meme and I think it's very true. I think the market is not dumb.

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I I take it that, you know, we we are making progress just much much too slow. Like the Ethereum fee burn was a step in the right direction. It's not a big enough step. And then Hyperliquid and Solana and and particularly Hyperlid with buybacks are a much more direct impact on the underlying token. And so that direct reinvestment into the protocol and into the the the instrument itself that measures that network's value is closer. Is is it still not sufficient? What how do you go to the what is the next milestone?

Yeah, I think you're you're flying closer to the sun like Mega ETH is now enshrining kind of like the stable coin with Athena that um you know pays for some sequencer fees and you know that is interesting. It's not enough. Hyperlid is also probably closer. This is again if you look at what's actually performed well is tokens that behave as close to equity and the tokens that don't have not traded well and hyperlquid to your point Robbie is as close as you are ever going to get to being like an equity because it has a team that moves fast that is willing to reinvest that is willing to do things like the stablecoin RFP that you know create more value um there's still it's not perfect, right? But it's it's as close to it. And I think that that combined with of course per just being a killer category.

But uh to to to round out this point, I mean, I think again I want to just validator rewards are not reinvesting. Those are operating costs to run a decentralized system. And so paying validators is is to secure the network is is like paying rent, right? Keeps the lights on, but it doesn't compound value to to the token holder. um in the you know and so that's like it's just important to internalize because most people will always say oh validated rewards are you know this is this is how you get rewarded it's like equity and it's really not um and and the other point which is is hard to reconcile it it touches on a lot of things not just like this disconnect between tokens and equity is like going back to the opening you're going to see more and more fees get generated by these systems like like L1's um and value will be captured by those people like a of the world that actually own the customer.

If a actually can can become a neo bank, they're going to capture a lot of that value for themselves. And the tax that they pay to whoever is providing security on this exit settlement is going to capture a very small percentage of it. The next piece I'm going to write is probably security markets. Like I can layer try to sort of create a better model to price security in these decentralized distributed systems, but it's really hard.

I I I asked like anytime an L2 builder comes here, ask them, hey, the amount of money that you're paying back to Ethereum, is that fairly priced? Yes or no? And they'll all dance around it. But I'll tell you, if you look at their body language, they'll probably say it is the biggest bargain in crypto because you're utilizing you're the Ethereum alignment is real because god damn, it feels great to pay to be paying for a service uh where the tax rate is like 1%. The real tax rate should be the amount of federal taxes that you pay in your tax bill Robbie and Andy which is 30%.

Ethereum provides a variable service which is security and I think Vitalic at one point woke up and said enough is enough. But of course anyone can pack up their and go right they can go build in Salana in another system. And that that's really the again the the point that I make is I have zero interest in owning tokens because it's super competitive. It's open source. It's competitive. people are going to go if if you don't like Ethereum and Ethereum jacks up their fee like Tron did, you can go to Salana and then if if you don't like what Salana's doing, you can pack up a and go to Tempo.

Yep. And and so again, I think like as we think about what we're doing at Inversion, I I like that dynamic because I'm just going to go to the best provider and infrastructure eventually becomes a commodity and it's a race to the bottom. And so block space is infinite. It's cheap. it will only continue to be cheaper and the value that is going to be captured is by the people that build on top of it.

And so Black Rock sees that because they can use Ethereum. It's fairly cheap to use Ethereum and then they can make way more money. So I'd rather own Black Rock equity than ETH the token or Black Rock equity than Salana the token because it's just a better business model. they capture the fees and it compounds and and and and so unfortunately the crypto market is stuck in still trying to believe that like infrastructure is a good investment. I don't think infrastructure is a good investment.

Yeah. So the the the uh infrastructure commoditization uh apps occurring value uh token e economics being the problem things like metaf's law were basically no we're kind of putting to the side for blockchains but you also m made it a point to mention that uh blockchains themselves aren't the issue and so maybe you can elaborate on like some of the more uh let's just call it optimistic or positive result right so where do we go from here kind of overlay this in in the next several years we you know pretty firmly believe that the Trump admin and hyperlquid those two uh events or kind of factors have has led to basically this you know what's happening now in in terms of this valuation disconnect amongst other factors and now we'll see teams trying to create more what you're calling crypto enabled equity. So what does that look like in the bull case? What's your base case? What's your bare case here for crypto for tokens and crypto as an industry moving towards more crypto enabled equity? What does that look like on a five 10 year time horizon?

Oh gosh. I mean, don't overthink it. Every business is going to use stable coins. It starts with B2B because there's two motivated people to cut costs and then it starts to B toC people. You have gusto, you have um uh deal, you have all these pay payment like employee employees are going to get like employees are going to be paid in stable coins. Once they get paid in stable coins, they transact e-commerce and stable coins. Then you have a gentic commerce that uses stable coins. Then you have businesses to businesses that are sending money and saying, "Wait a minute, I don't have to send you a wire. I can just send you a stablecoin." And that's uh BBNK, that's Stripe.

So that's the crypto enablement. I mean, I I can't I mean, I am um in incredibly bullish on that happening probably faster than most people think. I mean, gosh, you January alone, you had 10 trillion of stable coins moving around. That's more than Visa and Mastercard combined. Visa has a probably a better measure of like real economic activity which is the adjusted stable coin volume which is stripping away ME and and some like you know DEX activity, DeFi activity and that's still very high. That's 1 and a half trillion of stable coins that are moving in the real economy. That number grows by an order of magnitude this year alone. Grows by two orders of magnitude in the next 10 years. Don't be on the like don't overthink it. The nuance is how do you express that trade as an investor? It's always the question and but but I I I think I created this uh so I haven't been around with AI just cuz it's like amazing what in a month these things have changed and now I have like I'm opening a filing cabinet in my brain of ideas because I'm not technical and now I'm putting them in production. not prototyping, just putting in production. Within 24 hours, I built a new site. I didn't use a designer. I didn't pay them zero. I paid Claude like $10 to do it. Like absolutely remarkable. Um what I'm trying to say is um like in many ways I think AI and crypto are very connected. Um, and the if you're wondering like how can I actually make sense of this? I think there will be we're at a time where a lot of people are skeptical of different use cases that crypto can power. The focus of course right now is stable coins and and you know stuff like per if we just stop there like this industry can grow 10x but I think there's going to be a very violent shakeup of of where that 10x grows. Um I created where I was trying to go with AI. I created this if you want to go online now it's at FTV.gg if you want to pull it up. We're I'm going I'm there. FTV FTV.gg. What would you rather own? Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. I am not a cat. That is weird, but that's basically this is to to make sure the bots. But because it uses machine learning to like to give you the consensus view once you select and it's like very simple like if we just walk through this exercise. It's like, would you rather own Salana at a 80 billion dollar valuation or Stripe equity in the private markets at 90 billion? Would you rather own XAI equity before it merges SpaceX or Ethereum? Would you rather own Here's an interesting one, Santi. Would you rather own Open AI private equity at 500 bill or Apple at 4 trillion? Apple. I think Apple is like the dark horse in the AI contrarian that was contrarian 43%. I had I had Bitcoin 1.3 trillion or Birkshshire Hathaway 1.1 trillion. Berway that was very contrarian 20%. Wow, this is insane. This is a great and then and then and then it uses so I built that uh I had a project like this because I kept when when someone asked me this question like how do you like do you want to invest in crypto or not? I think we all agree my framework in investing is everyone understands the demand side of crypto extremely well. Everyone knows it's it's it's unequivocal that demand is going to grow for block space. Demand is going to grow for stable coins and other applications. No one no one argues that anymore. But whenever you're critical about valuations, everyone always goes back to demand. And you're like, well, but they see that's my point. If you really want to make money, you need to understand the supply dynamics. What are the supply dynamics? With a click of a button, anyone can deploy a chain. So the block space is incredibly elastic. It's not scarce by any stretch of the imagination. It's not like you built a road. There's no moes to these systems other than like some sort of mimemetic brand value that is hard to wrap your head around that it's worth 300 billion. I'm sorry. I'm just going to call it that. Um and and so I think if you really want to make money as an investor, you need to understand the supply, how that curve, the shape, the slope of the curve and the shift in the curve as technology advances. And five years ago, I think you could have argued demand for blockspace was there and it is very hard to build a consensus engine, a layer one. It took you, you know, you had to uh it wasn't easy to launch a chain. Now it's very easy to launch a chain. And so I think uh when you go through this game of what you'd rather own, it's always useful to put it in perspective because it it frames the conversation not of as an investor, you don't necessarily have to own anything. You don't have to own a token. You can go and buy Western Union for 9 billion or you can go buy uh four billion, sorry. you could go buy uh you know equity in or in things that are going to use the infrastructure and and I think that's how I disarm a lot of the arguments in crypto which is you have a really fanatical base that is very very it's like a religious kind of experience right you're Ethereum align or you're not ever bring up the point that Ethereum is worth 300 billion because