Coinbase Earnings, Bitcoin vs Tech, and Crypto’s Quantum Threat

Hi everyone, welcome to another episode of Bits and Bips the Interview. I'm your host Steve Erlick and we've got a lot to talk about today. But first, I'd like to introduce my guest John Tedaro from Needam & Company. He is their point man on all things crypto equities and in particular he has a unique expertise in mining and we're going to get into all of it.

So, John, welcome.

Thanks for having me on. Good to be back.

I mean, you are a repeat guest and I'm really interested to kind of see how the conversation is going to be different than it was a few months ago when all the Bitcoin miners were kind of rerating as part of this whole AI HBC buzz, whose I guess luster has worn off a little bit.

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Okay, so let's kind of get started. I mean, John, when you were on the show a few I guess a few months ago or late last year, we the whole conversation centered around like the ways that analysts were completely rethinking how they were approaching Bitcoin miners because of their power generation capacity, their hosting capacity, and sort of the insatiable demand from AGI providers to sort of get as much capacity as possible.

And in many ways, this was a really welcome site because Bitcoin miners, I've always had a bit of a soft spot for them because they're kind of the unsung workhorses of this entire entire ecosystem. Yet, their stocks always dragged the price of Bitcoin. They they dragged DATs. Demand was siphoned away from them for ETFs and they were always sort of none of this works without minors, but their stocks were always trailing the sort of like the base assets.

That completely changed and we spoke about that. But today things are different. Bitcoin is struggling. I mean, it's below 70,000. It dropped as low as 60,000 last week. That's creating some real dangerous economics for miners.

And I want to get into all of that. And, uh, sort of the shine has come off of the AI boom. I mean, we've seen huge tech selloffs, especially in the last week or two.

So, I just want to start off by kind of asking what are you seeing right now and, um, in how this environment is really impacting Bitcoin miners?

Yes. So the Bitcoin miners are still very much going down the AI route. So providing data center capacity for AI workloads. That hasn't changed at all from our last conversation. If anything, they've gone more into that uh with the Bitcoin weakness.

I think it's kind of because you're also seeing hash price continue to go lower, too. So I think that's confirmed for a lot of these Bitcoin miners that the path they they have chosen maybe six months or so ago is the path they ultimately want to be on. They want to be on the path for AI workloads.

Now there are some specific impacts to kind of data center operators for AI right now which is weighing on the stocks a little bit and there's also just a broader tech selloff that is kind of impacting names to an extent too.

But I would say that they're very much going down that route of doing of supporting HPCAI workloads. We've gotten a few new leases in late last year. So in December, Hut signed actually the best contract we have seen so far.

So that kind of reaffirms to us that the demand is is still very strong and if anything has gotten better and the terms have actually improved for these Bitcoin miners since earlier this year when or sorry earlier last year around the summer when a lot of these these deals got signed.

So from that standpoint um you know the terms have improved, the demand seems still very strong. uh you've seen those new capex guidance numbers from all the major hyperscalers you know a lot of that's going towards AI right and so that that actually beat expectations by quite a bit.

What's that I think I saw the number it was like $660 billion or something and across them yeah yeah and that spooked markets I mean that that that scared everyone last week but what you're saying is that that's going to ultimately benefit the miners um like the the capacity providers in some some shape or form.

I mean, the the spook is more so are they spending too much on AI and could potentially put some of these companies in peril. From a Bitcoin miner standpoint, you want the major hyperscalers to continue to spend money on on data center buildout, sign leases, put more towards capex.

So, I think from that standpoint, it's it's a positive signal for my miners that, hey, companies aren't pulling back from spending on AI. They're doubling down.

I think the market is viewing it a little bit longer term and going, okay, you know, how much capex are we going to ultimately spend on this? What is the refresh cycle going to look like? And that's where things get a little bit more concerning.

Why I also like my miners is they're doing a colo lease for the most part. So they don't have this aggressive capex treadmill like you see when you're you're buying the GPUs and that infrastructure. That starts to look a little bit like a Bitcoin mining capex refresh cycle which which I didn't love which is probably one of the reasons why Bitcoin miners kind of always trailed Bitcoin and some of those other assets you mentioned earlier.

So a lot of them are doing colo leases. So you you're not on the same kind of aggressive capex cycle. there's still a ton of capex to build these data centers, but you at least don't have that very real and significant depreciation on the GPUs.

So, I I'm not worried about the the capex numbers. If anything, I I kind of take that as a positive for my miners. There's still a lot of demand for for what they're offering.

Okay. Um, just a a couple of follow-up questions to um to what you just kind of walked us through. Uh, one, you said HUD signed a very I guess what's the word you used? Uh, a very lucrative, very attractive, one of the best deals. What what does that mean specifically?

Yes. So, um you they got the full credit back stop from Google. Uh so that allows you to to build at uh um at you can you can get financing a little bit easier. So lower rates on your debt that you need to layer in and actually build the data center. So that was attractive.

So that arrangement was done in uh it's with fluid stack directly and then Google is the credit backstoppper. That was the first agreement we saw where Google extended credit over the entire length of the lease which uh if I recall it's 15 years.

So the other ones you saw it was maybe five six years. Um so it's over the full length of the lease. The economics uh in terms of kind of topline the the revenue per megawatt uh was a was a bit more attractive a little bit in line um with with some of the other leases I would say um higher than kind of your average one you saw uh when there is a major hyperscaler back stopping um versus the ones over the summer.

So, I think that one came out to about 1.51 million per megawatt. In first year numbers, there's 3% escalators. So, the the revenue you receive um every year goes up about 3%, but it starts at 1 point a little over 1.5 million per megawatt.

Um and then they also have longer to execute. So, I believe they have 14 or 15 months uh for the RFS date, the ready for service date. Okay. Um on the uh on that contract.

Um, and so that's a that's a big piece now we're seeing too where if you're if you're delayed and you have execution this is um you you do there's normally discounted rent that that um that happens within that. Uh so we do like that you're getting more time to execute so you're not up against a very aggressive uh date where you have to deliver the data center.

Um and also a lot of these contracts become cancelellable after 90 or 180 days past the that date I talked about. So if you're delayed 90 to 180 days, that's the RFS date. Yeah, that that service date for the data center, uh the contracts become canceable. With HUT, that's not the case. They don't become cancelellable.

Okay. Um there's still going to be discounted rent likely. I'm sure there's some discounted rent. Um but we do think they they have a little bit more wiggle room on execution, too.

So So what that indicates to us is hyperscalers are being a little bit more lenient with their with their these counterparties with the eight the the Bitcoin miners. Um they're also looking to or willing to extend full credit over the entire length of the lease and make it easier to finance. Um so that all indicates kind of better terms that the miners have a little bit more negotiating power. They're not up against a super tight window and they're not getting credit back stopping. They are getting those now.

So, do you see these Bitcoin miners as a bit of a more value play if such a thing exists within the tech sector because of the fact that uh they're getting these attractive terms and that that and sort of there's a more of a bullish case to be made despite this sort of jury feeling in markets at this point.

I I would argue yes. So, most of these names we are buyed on and we have um you know we got price targets higher than than where current prices. Um it's a few different ways how you want to value it and look at these stocks though right if you comp them to data the large traditional data center REITs like Equinex or Digital Realy these are trading at a discount.

Um I think if you're able to execute on some of these contracts uh I think you start to close that discount gap very quickly uh and you also need to kind of continuously show that you can get access to more power if you're just kind of one and done then it's going to be very hard to go slap a data center reap multiple on these businesses But if you can show you're able to continuously get power, they're signing better contracts in Equinex and digital realy get they're building bigger more complicated data centers than than those uh names are building the traditional data center reads.

Um in the hut example that lease was a triple net uh lease so very good margin. Um so I would say you know if you're able to kind of consistently do this you should close the gap and maybe even trade at a premium to the data center read. So from that standpoint um you know maybe they start to look value relative to those names.

I think where the market has more concern is are you going to be able to continuously get power or are you going to be one and done because if you are one and done how you should value these names you shouldn't apply a data center reap multiple to them. You should more so just value the cash flows from the contracts they have signed and when you do do that we've done that math it does equate to about 40% maybe 50% lower in the equity value than where the stock's trading today.

So um you know you do need to show that you can continuously get power and that is a big question in the market right now and then two you need to show that you can execute because if if all these guys start falling down and aren't able to execute uh maybe leases start getting cancelled and you really should trade at a significant discount to the the data center reads that can execute.

Um so those are the the two pieces that need to be uh you know that need to give the market comfort right now.

Understood. Uh, I have one more question about all this and then we're going to actually turn a little more back to Bitcoin mining. Um, but you talked about how sometimes the capex uh is cheaper, it's easier than uh procuring Bitcoin miners by themselves.

I mean, we both remember going back to even like the the heady days of 2021, the pandemic, when miners were were paying 9 months, sometimes a year in advance for machines that weren't even built yet in order to kind of get first in line because there there was never going to be enough capacity from the Bitmains and MicroBTs of the world to satisfy all demand.

Uh, and I mean that the outlays were nine figures, sometimes 10 figures to to get these devices. How is it different when it comes to acquiring GPUs and sort of like building out the infrastructure inside these these hosting centers?

It's not all that different. The the the argument I was making is these Bitcoin miners aren't responsible for the GPU capbacks. So that's where their tenants in most of these it's called a co collocation lease where the tenant brings in their own GPUs. So for most of these iron's different because Iron is going down more a cloud compute route. So they have that contract with Microsoft where iron is spending capex on the GPU. So it does look a little bit sim more more similar to that Bitcoin mining kind of capex you were talking about. The other names uh for the most part are doing colo leases where they're not responsible for the the GPU cap.

Okay. So like um like a marathon for instance I mean they would have to get the capacity or some sort of vertically integrated minor. They would have to get the capacity, the power, everything. And then they would have to procure the AS6. In this case, the the companies themselves are doing steps one, one and two, but when it comes down to the GPUs, the actual engines, uh, it's like Google or Fluid Stack or or whoever is the client is supplying it on their behalf.

Exactly. Got it. Exactly. All right. And I'm sure that's Yeah. I mean, that's easier from a cash flow point of view for some of these these companies.

So, all right, let's turn directly back towards Bitcoin mining because you you pointed out how hash price is is down. I mean, it's been continuously going down for for years at this point, but um this is a a very precarious point um for Bitcoin miners.

Uh, I know the answer is to this question is it depends because every minor has a different sort of cost of production, but it seems like the 60,000 range is dangerous for for almost everyone even though everyone's talking about strategy more. Their danger point is like 8,000. So, I mean, what do you see right now? Uh, I mean, hash price is continuing to go down. Uh if Bitcoin does not break out of this range to the upside, u are are you seeing a lot of stress on the finances of these miners? Uh is it going to mean that they keep turning even more, I guess you even said, more towards AI and not buying more miners themselves? Uh are they going to have to start selling Bitcoin to cover expenses? What are you seeing there?

Yeah, I would say um so it is more topical now than than it's really been kind of around this cycle, right? So we were just on an earnings call today and it was one of the the I think the uh the first time kind of this cycle where we heard, hey, are you going to turn off rigs? Um given where Bitcoin prices are uh and where hash price is. So um it is starting to become a much more topical question which we didn't really have before. There was there was definitely some margin in there. At these levels, you're pretty close to cash break even costs. In some cases, some miners might be higher on cash uh production.

When you factor in the depreciation on the GPUs, a lot of them are above uh where the Bitcoin prices are or kind of right around it. Um so from that standpoint, uh yes, it it it starts to be a little bit more of a concern than than obviously it's it's at when Bitcoin was 85K and hash price was a little bit higher.

Um, what I would say though in terms of the Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, um, I don't know if any of the names in my coverage universe are looking at it going, "Okay, Bitcoin is here. I'm going to push more into AI because the AI, um, component was already just so much so much better from a a stock perspective. You're talking about, you know, 15 times on an EVAT basis is is maybe what the markets is paying for an AI data center." um a Bitcoin miner, they're going to pay like three three four times EBA.

So, you already had a massive difference in the multiple and then the underlying kind of um the dollars per megawatt you could generate and the stability of that too because these are stable 15-year contracts, right? So, you know, the margin um that profile also looked a lot better for AI versus Bitcoin mining. And then you look at just the the ultimate AI demand. I mean, one of the reasons a lot of software stocks have been weak is is is AI. you know AI is going to eat software and all that.

So um it is is kind of you know AI is reshaping a lot of a lot of the economy you know financial markets um so that demand also is just significantly stronger too. So it's I would say none of the miners are necessarily going oh man you know Bitcoin's now down 25% versus this we're going to pivot a little bit more towards it. I think it was more so of a light bulb moment of if you can go into AI workloads um and felt comfortable in your execution and if your sites were set up for it, you're going to go down that path.

Um I don't think Bitcoin being a little bit lower here um really changes that. They I think they made up their mind that the train has has left the station. Most of these miners are going down AI workloads and you would need something on the AI side to break for them to to pivot back to mining.

Understood. Okay. Uh so let let's talk a little more then about hash rate. I mean it's pretty much been going down since uh I guess October. I mean October 10th, middle of October when when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of I think it was like 126,000 and it's been a continuous trend downward since then. You mentioned how uh I guess one of the companies you were on a call with today talked about perhaps reaching that point where they start turning off machines because it's no longer economic to mine. But where has the draw down been coming from so far over these last few months?

Yeah. And in fairness, this company said on the call, um, we haven't reached that level yet. So, um, but it but it is becoming topical. You know, I was another sellside analyst uh who asked that question. Um, so it is it is popping up. That's just, you know, on prior analyst calls, I don't think I've heard that. So, that was uh one of the first times we're now starting to hear it again. And it makes sense. I mean, that the price is where Bitcoin's at. That's, you know, it makes sense to ask that question. Yeah.

Um, so um, uh, so in terms of kind of why hash is maybe coming off the network, I would say it's a combination. You're you're likely have high-cost miners exiting, right? Uh, older rigs being taken offline that are no longer profitable. Uh, we are seeing that. Um, so a lot of these companies do want to continue to kind of refresh. Some of them have more access to rigs and so you're able to slater slate in more efficient rigs um, versus older rigs. And so you're taking older rigs off.

Um and then you are seeing uh you're starting to see a real effect from at least in the US your public US Bitcoin miners um moving data centers towards HPC AI and that's resulting in some hash coming offline. I would say still a lot of these um companies like CleanSpark for instance, they're going to be doing Bitcoin mining at one of their sites up until the AI data center is ready to go and then they're going to be able to kind of switch uh you know kind of fairly close to that that uh the date for when the AI kicks in.

Um some of these other ones need to start making the allocation now where they're they're taking some of those data centers down that are for Bitcoin mining and putting in HPC AI. So you've seen some of that. The point I'm trying to make is you're going to see more of it. So um if you look at the Bitcoin miners in the US today, the public ones, they still have a lot of data centers dedicated towards Bitcoin mining, but those are earmarked for AI. And the work on kind of retrofitting those towards AI is happening.

And at some point when those contracts start kicking in for AI, there won't be Bitcoin mining at those sites. They will if they take that down. So um that's also another chunk of hash that will likely come off the network. You're seeing some of that today. But keep in mind most of these AI data centers have not been built yet.

Okay. So that's actually really interesting. So is it we're talking like one to two years in the future? Sure. I mean, give me a timeline and also what do you think hash rate is going to settle at once we reach that point because uh perhaps it's time to uh perhaps some people listening here today might think well I can try to calculate what hash price should be once we reach that point where the competitive environment for mining is is a little less arduous.

Yes. um the timeline uh about uh that like a 12-month time frame, you're going to see more of the public minor hash um go down for some of these companies. Now, other ones are growing it a little bit. So, it's it's not kind of uh you know, everything will will happen in tandem. Um but I would say on average that public US hash, the percentage of the the hash and also just absolute hash should come down. Um, and that's likely going to happen over the next 12 months as these data centers get get built out.

Um, and then it's going to accelerate on probably a 24month time frame if I'm looking out who's who's trying to secure AI leases now. Um, and when those data centers ultimately get built, you're kind of on a a 12 to 24month time frame. Um, and so more hash will come off the network over that frame.

In terms of the kind of net impact, um, it's hard to tell, right? because then there's there's more efficient machines. Some are growing uh hash a little bit. Um will they be able to find a little bit more power and then put Bitcoin mining back to that those sites? Right? So there is also a conversation among some of these Bitcoin miners is hey maybe I have a big site that that I want to do AI worth with and it's suitable for AI but maybe I can still go procure in that 24month time frame some more remote site or a site that um maybe isn't suitable for AI data center workloads um and I can go put my rigs over there and do Bitcoin mining there.

So, um, if they don't find any extra capacity, I don't know. It'd be it'd be a decent chunk. Maybe maybe five, but but also not not everything, right? I mean, keep in mind the miners are, you know, I think maybe only what 20% of the total network. It's not like they're, you know, 50. Yeah. I mean, that's an important point like publicly traded Bitcoin miners is not the entire Bitcoin hash rate, right? Most people listening here probably know that, but it's always worth kind of reiterating.

Yeah. So I would say probably if you just take all their hash they have today, I would say probably about 25% of that comes offline over the next like two-ish year time frame.

Okay, that is that is interesting. Uh and probably a bit of a welcome respit for the ones that are still committed to to doing it. Yeah. Um I had one more question along these lines, but I'm actually blank. Yeah, here it is. um last time that there was a big bare market, uh we were actively tracking how much Bitcoin was being sold by miners and and that became a big hurdle that needed to be overcome in order for the price to sort of go back up and obviously all that changed with in the middle of 2024 when Donald Trump embraced Bitcoin and and away we went. Uh are you tracking right now Bitcoin miners? Have any been selling uh selling in mass and uh are conversations happening about having to liquidate some funds in order to cover expenses?

Uh so they have been selling but not necessarily to cover expenses. Um the ones going down AI routes um if you're signing a hyperscaler agreement so like a Google Amazon you're able to get financing. uh Cipher just closed that very attractive financing, right? It was a it was very low rate. Um they were able to get on that. So um you know, no, no one's really, if you're going down the AI route, needing to necessarily sell Bitcoin uh to to fund operations. You are you do have at least the public ones, they have access to the capital markets, and the capital markets are willing to lend to them if they have these contracts in hand.

I I guess Oh, I'm sorry. I was gonna ask too like aside from that just like operational expenses, overhead for for operating the mining part of the business. Uh yeah, so some of them Yes. But that's been their policy for a while, right? Um like Cipher, I think, sells a good chunk of their Bitcoin um always to just kind of support their operating business for their their cash costs on on uh running that business and they've done that for a while. So it's not necessarily kind of a change with where Bitcoin prices are. the ones we have seen sell more Bitcoin than they otherwise would have um has been more so uh related to AI and you started to see them selling a bit more even before Bitcoin really broke down and started to sell off.

Um, so you know, I guess the the overarching point I'm trying to make on this is yes, they are selling down Bitcoin, but more so to one signal to the market, hey, we're we're really going down AI. We're taking it seriously. We don't want to be as closely correlated to Bitcoin. We want to decouple a bit from Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin. Um, and we also want to take those proceeds and maybe invest them into AI. Um, versus any minor going, "Hey, we're we're strapped for cash. Uh, we're at, you know, very negative margins here. we need to sell out Bitcoin uh to fund our operations. I haven't really seen that at least among the public ones. I cover private companies likely different. You might start seeing that, but not among my public.

And I guess one last question to just kind of distill the main question that I think some of our listeners might have is is there some sort of big sell coming if the price of Bitcoin drops into the low 60s or or below for a sustained period of of time? Uh, everyone's wondering like when are we going to reach the bottom? What type of what does capitulation mean? Do you think we're sitting at is there a danger zone um that people should be paying attention to?

I don't know if there's necessarily a hard sell the miners would have to do, but I've always considered it somewhat of a danger zone when you're at your break even costs. And and to your point earlier, uh we're we're at that for a lot of these public Bitcoin miners or you're likely a little bit higher than that. Um but if you get, you know, into the the 50s, low 60s, you know, you're you're putting that margin a little bit more under pressure and then you have to think about the the next having coming up that's starting to loom, right? So then that's another thing these guys have to start considering. Um, so that's always I've always viewed that a little bit as a danger zone.

Um, but I wouldn't say, you know, there's not necessarily kind of a a hard point where they need to sell. And it was different from last cycle because last cycle they did take a take on a lot of debt to fund uh the capex cycle for Bitcoin mining machines. Um, a many of those companies went bankrupt and what emerged you didn't have Bitcoin miners taking on debt for for their Bitcoin mining initiative. So, a lot of them, if they're doing pure play Bitcoin mining, you don't have kind of um certain, you know, debt that you need to pay down or anything like that, big big um payments that are coming due, uh you are starting to get a lot of debt, but it's it's all linked to AI. They're not being lent this these funds for Bitcoin mining. Uh they're being lent this for their data center builds. Um and so they are layering in debt, but it's it's specific to AI data centers. In some cases, they're kind of borrowing at that data center level versus at the corporate level.

Gotcha. Okay. Um, thanks for all that. Before we just touch on a couple of other small topics before I let you go, is there anything else related to the AI Bitcoin mining conversation that uh you'd like to mention?

Yeah, I think what folks need to be considering too right now is um, you know, if all these miners are going to be able to get power, right? Um, and and that's been a question. It's been a question since they all started to pivot, but you are seeing a bit more push back from a political standpoint at the state level um around hey, you know, should we really be granting all this power to to data centers um and to to build all these data centers throughout our states and and maybe localizations you're seeing protests um in some cases. Uh so I I do think um you know that isn't fully fleshed out yet. if there's going to be more political blowback and there starts being kind of less power that these miners are able to get than than in what everyone has in their pipeline and the market's trying to sniff that out a little bit right now too.

The big thing to look for right now is the URT their new uh badge processing. Um it's not yet decided. Uh it's it's unclear kind of where that ultimately shakes out or what those rules will be if the miners all get the power they expect. Um many of them have said yes, we do fully expect us to get the power. um that were kind of in some have framed it as grandfathered in. Um the reality is I just don't think we we know yet, but we are starting to see a little bit of push back from kind of at the state level um around all this power in compute going to to AI workloads.

Okay, got it. All right. Well, thank you for walking us through all that. Uh just a couple of other cryptoreated topics to discuss. Coinbase is reporting earnings later today, I guess, after market close. Expectations are like every other company that's already reported. Uh, a disappointing quarter, but what are you looking for and what do you want to hear from Brian Armstrong and the rest of the leadership on the analyst call?

Yeah. So, um, in terms of results, um, I think our number, our estimates are a little bit lower than than street consensus. So if you take that view, you you would say, okay, there's going to be kind of a narrow miss. But I would say the buy side has already kind of brought numbers down. Um I think what's also going to be a bigger deal because Q4 should be okay. And we have Robin Hood out there. Q4 was okay. What is going to be the bigger focus is is what's happening right now in Q1 and also the outlook um there.

What Brian Armstrong, you know, so first off, what we're focused on is retail take rates because retail is such a big part of that business. It's one of the items we don't know kind of where take rate ultimately landed. Um and then the the total the actual share of retail volumes. You don't know those actual numbers yet. You can have a pretty good estimate, but you don't know those actual numbers until earnings. Been really sticky for Coinbase for for years despite some people they've been fairly sticky. Yeah. Yeah. Um but a good a good chunk of that will be mix shift. So I would expect it to come down some uh which typically happens in these type of environments. Um but and you saw that a little bit with with Robin Hood as well. Um so so but but the bigger question is going to be kind of where does the crypto industry evolve from here, right? Um because a big chunk of Coinbase's business at the end of the day is still altcoins is altcoin activity, right? And that trading activity. Um and they're in a precar that's a precarious spot. I think the the retail demand to trade those coins has really pulled back a lot. And so we'll definitely be looking for any commentary they can give us on that.

They're trying to diversify their product suite to actually sort of be less correlated with crypto prices and crypto activity. I don't think anything's going to show up uh that's all too moving for Q4 um and likely not too too moving uh in the first couple months here of 26, but we would like to see their framework for prediction markets, some of these other assets beyond crypto where you can grow in that. how you're looking to try to become a super app to compete more squarely with Robin Hood. Um, and then the stable coin business, the stable coin business, um, should be relatively in line. I mean, that's pretty easy to model out and estimate. Uh, it's a great