Is TradFi Buying Our Bags? Why Jordi Owns Zero Stocks!!

This episode dissects the collision of crypto-native aggression and TradFi caution, exploring why high-conviction investor Jordi holds zero stocks and how this "full offense" mindset is shaping strategies in a market driven by institutional capital and fleeting meme cycles.

ETH's Resurgence and the "Liquidity Surge" Debate

• The episode kicks off with the hosts celebrating the podcast's two-year anniversary and ETH's recent price recovery. Justin expresses bullish sentiment, framing the rally as a return to fundamentals after a brief dip.
• However, Jordi offers a more cautious perspective, drawing a clear distinction between a genuine bull market and what he terms a "massive mini liquidity cycle." He references a previous debate with Santiago, arguing that recent market action confirms his theory: major assets like Bitcoin break highs, creating a temporary wealth effect that fuels a few weeks of frenzied altcoin activity before cooling off.

• Key Insight: Jordi posits that the market structure is fundamentally different from 2021. He expects recurring, short-lived "liquidity surges" rather than a sustained, traditional alt season.
• Jordi's View: "I'm not yet convinced that it is a bull market. I think it is in some ways, but not like in a traditional way."

The Fleeting Nature of Alt Seasons

• Expanding on the market structure, the hosts debate whether a true altcoin season is still possible. Justin remains optimistic, arguing that if ETH continues to outperform Bitcoin and eventually breaks its all-time high, the momentum will inevitably trickle down to other alts, igniting a "crazy" but brief period of opportunity.

• Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD): A key metric discussed, BTCD measures Bitcoin's market cap relative to the total crypto market. The hosts note it has fallen from 66% to 61%, driven largely by ETH's strength, but remains high, suppressing a broad-based alt season.
• Strategic Trigger: Justin believes an ETH all-time high is the primary catalyst required for a significant, albeit short, alt season. He suggests this would be a critical, time-sensitive window for investors to take profits.

The Fartcoin Saga and Attention Decay

• Tiki shares his personal journey with Fartcoin, a meme coin he initially championed but recently sold. His experience serves as a case study for the rapid decay of attention and mindshare in the current market, even for promising memes. The hosts observe that projects struggle to maintain long-term traction as capital rotates faster than ever between new narratives and launches.

• The Attention Economy: The discussion highlights a core challenge for all crypto projects, not just meme coins: the constant dilution of attention as new tokens launch, making sustained growth nearly impossible.
• Valuation Ceilings: Tiki notes a pattern where on-chain meme coins tend to peak at similar valuations (around $300-400 million) before whales likely exit, forcing a top.

Jordi's "Zero Stocks" Investment Philosophy

• The conversation pivots to a core theme when Jordi reveals he owns virtually no stocks and doesn't even have a brokerage account. This surprises the other hosts, prompting a deep dive into his crypto-centric investment thesis. Jordi explains his portfolio is almost entirely in crypto, primarily composed of stablecoins, Bitcoin, and a long tail of other tokens.

• Strategic Rationale: Jordi's approach is rooted in his belief that he is in "full offense mode" and that traditional diversification into assets like the S&P 500 ETF is a defensive play he doesn't need at this stage.
• Investor Takeaway: This section challenges the conventional wisdom of diversification, presenting a high-conviction, crypto-native alternative. It forces investors to question whether their capital allocation aligns with a defensive (wealth preservation) or offensive (wealth generation) strategy.

The Great Devaluation: Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. Equities

• Jordi justifies his heavy Bitcoin allocation by outlining his macro worldview. He argues the US dollar is being systematically devalued to manage national debt, leaving few viable stores of value. While macro investors are begrudgingly adding Bitcoin alongside gold, Jordi believes Bitcoin will continue to gain ground on gold over the long term.

• Quote on Gold's Failure: "He makes a point that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and you know if it's not working it's insufficient... imagine how insufficient it is post-internet."
• Bitcoin-Gold Ratio: This chart, which tracks the price of Bitcoin relative to gold, is referenced as a key indicator of Bitcoin's increasing adoption as a premier store of value.
• Actionable Insight: For investors seeking non-dollar assets, Jordi's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's potential to capture market share from gold presents a more compelling long-term opportunity, despite its volatility.

Offense vs. Defense: A New Paradigm for Wealth Creation?

• Jordi elaborates on his "offense mode" philosophy, arguing that in an era of unprecedented wealth creation and monetary debasement, simply preserving capital is a losing strategy. He estimates that holding cash results in a real purchasing power loss of at least 15% annually for non-necessity goods.

• The Core Argument: The most critical skill is not defending existing wealth but being adaptable and positioned to capture the massive wealth generation to come. He contrasts a legacy-minded billionaire with a nimble, forward-thinking founder like Jeff from Hyperliquid, suggesting the latter is better positioned to compound wealth over the next decade.
• Strategic Mindset: This is a call for investors and researchers to focus on identifying and aligning with emerging paradigms rather than clinging to defensive, legacy asset allocation models. The goal is to avoid becoming "roadkill" for the massive capital shifts underway.

The Launchpad Meta: From Pump.fun to Heaven

• The discussion shifts to the state of the launchpad meta, a sector defined by high hype and rapid burnout.

• Pump.fun: Justin notes its token is recovering after a poor post-launch performance, aided by a 100% revenue-to-buyback program and renewed commitment from its founder, Alon.
• Launchcoin Drama: The hosts discuss the struggles of Ben Pastor's Launchcoin, whose token price has plummeted, leading to community backlash amplified by his influencer girlfriend's posts about a luxurious lifestyle.
• Heaven ICO: Tiki reveals he "aped" his Fartcoin profits into an ICO for a new Solana launchpad called Heaven, which raised $27 million off little more than a tweet. This highlights the persistent, speculative demand in the space but also the extreme risk and potential market saturation.
• FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): The value of a project if all its future tokens were in circulation. Heaven is launching at a $54 million FDV, which the hosts find surprisingly high given the cooling launchpad meta.

IP-Focused Launchpads: A New Model?

• Jordi introduces a potentially innovative model: IP World on the Story protocol. This platform aims to create official IP-based meme coins and share revenue directly with the original IP creators. The example given is "Evil Larry," a TikTok cat whose owner is now earning significant income from the official coin.

• Key Differentiator: Unlike the chaotic meme coin space where multiple unofficial versions compete (e.g., Nier), this model establishes a single, official token and a clear value-sharing mechanism with the creator, potentially adding legitimacy and sustainability.

Revisiting Old Metas: Do They Ever Come Back?

• The hosts ponder whether crypto narratives ever truly circle back after their initial hype cycle. They conclude that while some sectors like DeFi have shown signs of life (e.g., Aave, Maple), others like NFTs have remained dormant. Tiki suggests that once a "ponzinomics" driven meta dies, it rarely returns with the same force.

• Emerging Trend: Jordi expresses that he is "itching for like an AI part two," suggesting that the AI narrative has significant potential for a powerful resurgence.

The Treasury Meta 2.0: Michael Saylor's Financial Alchemy

• The conversation turns to the "treasury meta," where corporations add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy remains the prime example. The hosts analyze his new capital structure "pyramid" and his latest financial instrument: offering 9% convertible senior notes to fund more Bitcoin purchases.

• The Bet: Saylor is effectively betting that Bitcoin's appreciation will exceed the 9% cost of debt, a strategy the hosts see as a reasonable, if highly leveraged, gamble.
• Market Concern: A bearish point noted is that Saylor may stop issuing stock to buy Bitcoin unless the premium to NAV is high, shifting his focus to this new debt-based "Ponzi."

The ETH Treasury Play: Can Tom Lee Replicate Saylor's Success?

• The discussion compares Saylor's Bitcoin strategy to Tom Lee's efforts to build an ETH treasury. Justin is highly bullish, believing the ETH narrative (stablecoin chain, Wall Street chain) is strong enough to succeed independently of these treasury vehicles.

• ETH's High Velocity: Unlike Bitcoin, which is often held long-term in cold storage, ETH is actively used and traded. Jordi argues this high velocity means price pumps will be met with significant selling pressure, limiting exponential moves.
• Jordi's Price Target: He believes ETH will only reach a new all-time high if Bitcoin first rallies to ~$200k, and considers the current price around $3,800 to be fair value.

Inside the Tornado Cash Trial: A First-Hand Account

• Justin provides a unique, first-hand perspective on the Tornado Cash trial, where he was compelled to testify as a government witness. He was involved due to his past role as a signer on a multi-sig (a crypto wallet requiring multiple signatures to authorize a transaction) for the Tornado Cash community fund.

• The Outcome: Developer Roman Storm was found guilty on one count of operating an unlicensed money transmitter (max 5-year sentence) but had a mistrial on two more serious charges. The judge granted him bail, acknowledging he has strong grounds for an appeal.
• Dragonfly's Involvement: The firm's partner, Tom Schmidt, was advised to invoke his Fifth Amendment right and not testify, as the government threatened him with potential criminal exposure.
• Key Takeaway for Researchers & Founders: Justin's experience serves as a stark warning about the legal risks of participating in multi-sigs or advising decentralized projects, highlighting the potential for asymmetric downside.

Pasta of the Week

• The episode concludes with three lighthearted "pasta" segments:
• Ethereum vs. Solana: A tweet praises Ethereum founders for focusing on "mechanism design" instead of "unhooking a bra," a jab at the perceived culture difference with Solana.
• The WNBA Dildo Meta: Tiki connects his legacy as the "green dildo guy" to a new trend of people throwing dildos onto WNBA courts, creating a bizarre arbitrage opportunity on prediction markets like Polymarket.
• The Return of the Board Ape: The hosts share a viral tweet from influencer Waywei Wu, who humorously "steals" a golden Bored Ape NFT via copy-paste, parodying the "right-click save" argument from the last cycle and highlighting how far the NFT narrative has fallen.

Conclusion

This episode reveals a market at a crossroads, torn between crypto-native offense and TradFi-influenced stability. Investors and researchers must now decide whether to adopt a high-conviction, risk-on posture or a diversified, defensive one, while closely tracking the institutional capital flowing through new treasury vehicles.