Is This The End of Steady Lads?

Okay, here are the detailed, narrative-driven show notes for Steady Lads Episode 91, tailored for Crypto AI investors and researchers.

Episode 91: Is This The End of Steady Lads? Market Shocks, Base Experiments, and Thicky's ETH Thesis

This episode marks a shift for Steady Lads, moving away from its weekly schedule, while diving deep into the dramatic Mantra token collapse and Base's controversial 'content coin' experiment—essential listening for understanding current market fragility and platform risks.

Steady Lads: A Shift in Cadence

• The hosts announced that Episode 91 might be the last regularly scheduled weekly episode of Steady Lads after 91 consecutive weeks.
• Tiki reflected on the podcast's origin, aiming to offer a more "degen" and fun alternative to the prevalent "VC circle jerk podcasts" when Up Only initially stopped uploading.
• The decision stems from a desire to maintain high quality, avoid stagnation, and combat burnout, particularly given the challenging and sometimes "depressing" market conditions. Justin highlighted the commitment shown, recording through holidays, sickness, and major life events across difficult time zones.
• Justin emphasized wanting to end the regular schedule "at the top of our game" rather than letting quality decline due to waning motivation. He mentioned, "everything has a life cycle of a beginning, middle and end and no shows go on forever."
• The hosts reassured listeners they aren't disappearing entirely but will return periodically, comparing it to Up Only's teased returns but promising actual reappearances, perhaps monthly. They acknowledged audience comments calling this a "bottom signal" or "bullish capitulation."

Future Content Directions

• The hosts briefly outlined their individual plans for future content creation.
• Jordy: Plans to focus on macro content, analyzing the shifting global landscape, and a separate series on high performance and personal growth, unrelated to crypto.
• Tiki: Mentioned taking acting classes, not to become an actor, but to improve his content creation quality, potentially leading to more fun crypto skits.
• Justin: Is exploring options but definitely wants to continue creating content.
• Community & Support: They gave a shout-out to their editor, Brad, highlighting his reliability and offering his contact info for others needing podcast production. They encouraged listeners to subscribe to get notified of future episodes.

Mantra (OM) Token Collapse Analysis

• The discussion shifted to the dramatic 90% collapse of the Mantra (OM) token, drawing parallels to the Luna situation and noting the involvement of Coffeezilla, which signifies major crypto news.
• Justin played a clip from Coffeezilla's interview with the Mantra team, highlighting the controversial practice discussed: selling tokens OTC (Over-The-Counter) – meaning private sales outside of public exchanges – and then using the proceeds to buy back tokens on the open market, effectively pumping the price.
• Jordy found a specific detail from Coffeezilla's investigation particularly interesting: text messages suggesting a strategy where "$1 million of OTC put into the chart moves the FTD (Fully Diluted Valuation) up by $30 million," allowing extraction of significant value. This mechanism artificially inflates market cap through controlled buying pressure.
• Jordy described this as a highly unusual market manipulation tactic he hadn't seen explicitly detailed before.

Market Dynamics and Shorting Risks

• Analyzing the OM chart, Jordy noted its bizarre history: an old 2020 token, previously related to Polkadot, which died off but retained its Binance listing. Tokens were seemingly re-accumulated before a massive pump starting around January 2024.
• The hosts concluded the sharp price spikes (e.g., $1.50 to $4 in November) were likely driven by the OTC-funded buybacks and short squeezes, not fundamentals. Thicky joined the conversation here.
• The immediate trigger for the collapse appeared to be a liquidation event on the OKX exchange, possibly involving someone close to the team who had borrowed against their OM tokens. OKX's CEO, Star, has publicly commented, promising transparency regarding deposit and liquidation data.
• Jordy emphasized a crucial point for investors: "it was only a matter of time before this like unsustainable price was going to come back down." The liquidation merely accelerated the inevitable collapse due to upcoming token unlocks (vesting periods ending, releasing more supply) originally expected later in the month.
• The difficulty of shorting OM was highlighted. Jordy explained, "you couldn't short it because the supply was so tightly controlled that they could just blow you out at any time." Thicky confirmed he had been tracking it for months, waiting for the right short opportunity, but the team kept delaying events like airdrops.
• Actionable Insight: This serves as a stark reminder of the risks in tokens with concentrated supply and opaque mechanics. Shorting such assets is extremely dangerous, as artificial pumps can liquidate positions before fundamentals reassert themselves. Jordy warned, "shorting is not free," especially when float (publicly available tokens) is limited.

Base's "Content Coin" Experiment on Zora

• The conversation moved to the controversy surrounding Base (Coinbase's Layer 2 network) and its activity on Zora. Zora is described as an "Instagram clone" where each post can launch its own token, similar in style to pump.fun.
• Base's official account posted a token called "bases for everyone," which pumped significantly (reaching ~$17M market cap). However, when Base posted a second token from the same account, implying the first wasn't canonical, the original token's price collapsed 90%.
• This led to community backlash against Base and its lead, Jesse Pollak. Jesse defended the actions, attempting to differentiate between "memecoins" (high expectations, aggregated value) and "content coins" (zero expectations, focus on the content itself, token is secondary).
• Justin, despite acknowledging the backlash and finding the distinction amusing ("Don't buy it unless you want to buy it"), gave credit for experimentation but ultimately viewed it as just another form of memecoin activity.
• Strategic Implication: Platforms experimenting with novel token models like "content coins" introduce new risks. Investors need to be wary of unclear tokenomics, potential for dilution (multiple tokens from one source), and the platform's influence on price, even if framed as experimentation.

Thicky's Market Perspective: ETH, Bitcoin, and Macro

• Thicky offered a surprising long-term bullish perspective on Ethereum (ETH), despite the prevailing negative sentiment. He views ETH as potentially the asset with the "most intrinsic value" due to its store-of-value properties and Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, which he believes is superior long-term to Bitcoin's Proof-of-Work (PoW). PoS involves validators locking up ETH to secure the network, while PoW uses computational energy (mining).
• However, his bullishness comes with a caveat: he anticipates a potential deep retracement first, stating his ideal long-term entry point might be as low as "$200." He clarified this isn't an immediate prediction but a potential bottom in a slow, U-shaped recovery before a potential future rally back towards previous highs ($4,000).
• Thicky mentioned his thinking is influenced by readings on AI alignment and spirituality, suggesting ETH aligns better with certain long-term principles. "ETH makes a lot of sense," he mused, while admitting these thoughts are still forming.
• He expressed less enthusiasm for most other crypto assets currently, finding little "idiosyncratic stuff going on" besides events like the Mantra collapse.

Broader Market and Asset Discussion

• The discussion touched on gold's strong performance, which Jordy sees as unusual and indicative of diversification away from the US dollar, particularly by Asian investors. He noted Kyle Samani's (Multicoin Capital) historical pro-dollar stance seems challenged by this trend.
• Jordy explained the Dollar Milkshake Theory (popularized by Brent Johnson), which posits that global reliance on dollar-denominated debt creates persistent demand for dollars, potentially slowing its decline even if diversification occurs. Countries owing debt in USD need USD to repay, creating structural demand.
• Bitcoin is positioned as a potential beneficiary of dollar weakness and a more practical store of value/transfer mechanism for individuals compared to physical gold. Jordy mentioned acquiring tokenized gold (like Tether Gold, XAUT) partly due to negative funding rates on perpetual swaps, offering a yield while holding gold exposure.
• Actionable Insight: The persistent strength in gold and discussions around dollar diversification suggest ongoing macro shifts. Crypto AI investors should monitor these trends, as sustained dollar weakness could significantly impact crypto asset valuations, potentially favoring Bitcoin as a non-sovereign alternative.

Equities Outlook and AI Influence

• Thicky reiterated his bearish short-term outlook on equities, maintaining a potential target of 10,000 for the Nasdaq (roughly 50% down from highs), though acknowledging it's an extreme scenario. His strategy involves scaling into positions as prices approach these lower levels (e.g., 3500 S&P).
• Despite the bearish outlook, he expressed a long-term desire to own the "Magnificent Seven" stocks due to their exposure to AI development.
• The conversation briefly touched on futuristic AI concepts, like Mustafa Suleyman's (DeepMind co-founder) idea of UBP (Universal Basic Compute/Intelligence) as an alternative to UBI (Universal Basic Income), providing computational resources instead of cash.
• Strategic Consideration: While AI remains a powerful long-term narrative, near-term equity market corrections could impact crypto sentiment. Investors should consider portfolio allocation between crypto, equities (especially AI-related), and potentially hedges like gold or dollars, depending on their market outlook.

Q&A Highlights

• Favorite Episode: Justin: Anniversary episode with Charles Hoskinson. Thicky: Vitalic episode (due to asking an awkward question). Jordy: Live episode in Singapore.
• Singapore vs. US: Jordy praised Singapore for stability, safety, health focus, and reasonable politics, calling it a great "home base" while traveling frequently to stay sharp ("street cat").
• Market Wizards: Thicky confirmed he has more interviews recorded for his series (no longer called Market Wizards due to copyright). Tiki hasn't done his series in months, focusing on content that excites him, potentially interviewing lesser-known anons.
• Trumpcoin Unlock: Discussed the recent unlock, noting the price held relatively well due to significant liquidity on the AMM, suggesting slow selling from recipients.
• Fartcoin PA: Tiki remains optimistic about Fartcoin, seeing it as a potential beneficiary if Bitcoin rallies and noting its resilience. He views it as "one of the few assets I want to own if I want to bet on Bitcoin new highs."
• Embarrassing Pastimes: Tiki: Acting classes. Jordy: Cryochamber meetings. Justin: Meditating (though finding it hard). Thicky: Skincare routine (jokingly suggested by Justin).
• Future in Crypto: Jordy & Tiki: Expect to remain in crypto long-term, focusing on building, content creation (Tiki wants to make a "Rounders for crypto"), and finding value. Justin: Depends on whether crypto delivers real products. Thicky: Uncertain about long-term trading viability due to decreasing edge and potential "soul-corrupting" aspects of finance, considering other pursuits while acknowledging crypto markets might persist.

Pasta of the Week

• Justin: Shared jokes about Base tokenizing unattended children and framing rugpulls as "content creation."
• Tiki: Highlighted that Mantra's yearly performance, even after the 90% crash, was still better than ETH's, underscoring ETH's underperformance.
• Venture Anthropologist (via Jordy): Defined an RWA blockchain as "one where you sell the token to buy real world assets," poking fun at the Mantra situation.
• Thicky: Shared a tweet questioning the longevity of active discretionary trading, suggesting AI-assisted trading by fewer large players might dominate in the future.
• Jordy (Bonus): Revealed he did a modeling photo shoot for a crypto-themed clothing brand (Dream Temple), sharing a humorous "trolling" picture from the session.

Reflective and Strategic Conclusion

This episode underscores market manipulation risks (Mantra) and platform growing pains (Base), set against shifting macro trends (dollar weakness, AI's rise). Crypto AI investors must monitor platform tokenomics closely, assess the viability of experimental models, and factor in macro uncertainty for strategic positioning.