Is Bitcoin Heading To $150k?

This episode unpacks the current crypto market's surprisingly calm demeanor amidst Bitcoin's surge and institutional embrace, exploring whether Bitcoin is truly heading to $150k and what this means for AI-crypto investors.

1️⃣ Episode Introduction

• This episode delves into the nuanced investor sentiment in a crypto market that, despite Bitcoin nearing all-time highs and significant institutional adoption, lacks the expected euphoria, questioning if Bitcoin is on a trajectory towards $150,000.

2️⃣ Market Sentiment: A Surprising Calm Amidst Gains

• Jonah, one of the podcast hosts, opens by expressing surprise at the relatively subdued market sentiment. Despite Bitcoin trading near $110,000, mainstream institutional adoption, and even tacit presidential support, the expected "pure euphoria mode" is absent. He notes, “I'm kind of amazed by how cool and collected everybody is.”
• Obby, the other host, attributes this calm to the evolving nature of returns in the maturing crypto industry. He explains that unlike previous cycles where investors saw 5-10x returns easily, current gains are more modest. “Returns are just naturally going to come down in an industry that grows,” Obby states, suggesting that while crypto is still a "get-rich quicker" space than traditional markets, the days of easy 50x or 100x returns on major assets are largely behind us, requiring more skill or "stupidity" to achieve.
• Strategic Implication: Investors should adjust return expectations. While significant gains are still possible, the market's maturity means hyper-growth is less common, demanding more sophisticated investment strategies rather than broad market bets.

3️⃣ The Long Game: Crypto's "Post.com Crash" Era and Disciplined Investing

• Jonah likens the current crypto phase to the "post.com crash moment" for tech, envisioning a "25-year golden bull run super cycle for crypto." This long-term perspective, however, means fewer short-term explosive gains, similar to how the tech bull run favored sustained growth over quick flips.
• He advocates for a disciplined investment approach: earning money through primary means and dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and select altcoins that represent real businesses with tangible products and fair valuations (PE ratio basis), such as Hyperliquid or Maple.
• Obby highlights the performance of specific picks like Syrup, which has shown strong growth, reinforcing the idea of focusing on projects with demonstrable value.
• Actionable Insight: Crypto AI investors should adopt a long-term horizon, focusing on dollar-cost averaging into fundamentally sound projects and those with clear revenue models, rather than chasing short-term speculative pumps.

4️⃣ The AI Coin Renaissance: Navigating Hype and Reality

• The discussion shifts to the resurgence of AI-themed cryptocurrencies, with Virtuals (a platform for launching AI agents and tokens) highlighted for its recent strong performance. Jonah expresses a cautious view on Virtuals, suggesting their initial marketing as a "no-code AI agent ecosystem launchpad" was perhaps premature as the AI agents "are just not good enough right now." He believes a pivot towards being a launchpad giving trading fees to creators would have been more effective.
• Jonah admits to struggling with asset allocation in the AI crypto space, acknowledging the "mania is coming" but finding it difficult to identify truly valuable "AI coins" amidst projects like "Zuri Bro or Virtuals or AI6Z or Fartcoin."
• Obby draws a parallel with Tao (Bittensor), a decentralized machine learning network, noting how many projects start as "vaporware" but can eventually deliver if comprised of smart people with a vision. He observes Tao's recent underperformance as a correction after significant overperformance, suggesting it reached a "fairish value" based on its current development, particularly the activity on its staking subnet.
• Strategic Implication: For AI crypto researchers and investors, the key is to discern projects moving from "vaporware" to actual delivery. Monitoring development progress and real-world utility, beyond marketing hype, is crucial for identifying sustainable AI crypto investments.

5️⃣ Broader Market Dynamics: Bitcoin's Stability and Altcoin Opportunities

• Obby analyzes the broader market, noting Bitcoin's stability above $100,000 for nearly a month. He views this $100,000 level as psychologically significant, providing confidence for altcoin speculation. "As long as it stays above that level, people are going to be willing to speculate in these types of alts," he suggests.
• He also points to equity markets shrugging off negative news (like tariff concerns) as a sign of reduced fear, further enabling speculation. Obby believes Bitcoin's price of $110,000 is "very unstable" and anticipates a significant move, likely upwards towards $120,000, in the near future.
• Bitcoin Volatility (V): This refers to the measure of Bitcoin's price fluctuations. A lower V suggests more stability, while a higher V indicates more price swings.
• The hosts discuss Bitcoin options, with Obby noting one-month volatility for the $120 strike at 46.5. He explains this implies an annualized standard deviation of daily return of 46%, or a 2.4% implied daily move, which he considers low, expecting a 5-10% day soon.
• Actionable Insight: Bitcoin's sustained price above key psychological levels could fuel an altcoin season. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's price action closely, as a breakout could extend speculative opportunities in alts, while options data suggests the market anticipates increased volatility.

6️⃣ Macro Tailwinds: Bitcoin as a Debt Spiral Hedge

• Jonah provides a macro perspective, reiterating the thesis that politicians lack the mandate to crash the economy and will always opt for stimulus. He points to Trump's actions and recent spending bills as evidence of fiscal expansion and currency debasement.
• "Bonds are getting taken to the woodshed," Jonah observes, while crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is outperforming equities. He argues this signals investors are recognizing Bitcoin's role as a hedge against a "debt spiral," aligning with its original whitepaper premise. This differentiation from equities is attracting "serious investors."
• Strategic Implication: The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by government spending and currency debasement, strengthens Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, potentially driving further institutional adoption.

7️⃣ On-Chain Analysis: Who's Selling Bitcoin?

• Jonah discusses on-chain metrics like Coin Days Destroyed (a measure of Bitcoin velocity that gives more weight to coins that haven't moved in a long time) and MVRVZ (Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score), which compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap to assess if it's over/undervalued.
• He suggests these metrics indicate that current Bitcoin holders are not "so wildly in the money that they're just going to be selling with both hands." Even prominent holders like Michael Saylor have an average entry price (estimated around $85-90k) that isn't drastically lower than current levels, implying less pressure for immediate profit-taking.
• Obby concurs, predicting Bitcoin could reprice to $150,000-$200,000 before significant profit-taking occurs. He anticipates Bitcoin's volatility will decrease as it becomes more like a traditional stock market asset.
• Actionable Insight: On-chain data suggests limited sell pressure from existing Bitcoin holders at current prices. This could support further price appreciation before significant profit-taking kicks in, potentially around the $150k mark.

8️⃣ The Evolving Bitcoin Investor: From Retail Frenzy to Sanguin Accumulation

• Obby contrasts current Bitcoin investors with those from previous cycles. He believes today's participants are "more sophisticated" or at least "less emotional" than the retail investors who FOMO-bought tops in 2017. "The people that own Bitcoin today just don't do that," he asserts.
• Jonah elaborates, describing the new wave of investors as previously skeptical individuals who are now comfortable with Bitcoin's reduced volatility and understand its macro argument. This includes those allocating via wealth advisors (e.g., through IBIT, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF). He terms this new class "more sanguin," likely to dollar-cost average rather than panic buy or sell.
• Strategic Implication: The changing demographic of Bitcoin investors, characterized by more considered, long-term accumulation, suggests a more stable and sustainable growth trajectory for Bitcoin, less prone to extreme retail-driven volatility.

9️⃣ Altcoin Strategy: Prudent Profit-Taking and Identifying Real Businesses

• While bullish on Bitcoin's long-term stability, Obby advises a more aggressive approach to altcoin trading. "You need to be a lot more aggressive selling altcoins than you do Bitcoin because none of these things are supported by the broader markets in the same way."
• Jonah emphasizes that while "altcoins are still degen land," opportunities exist in projects that are "real businesses buying back their own tokens with real revenues," especially if their Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)—the total value of a crypto project if all its tokens were in circulation—is low.
• He believes the current crypto cycle could last another 10 years, breaking the traditional four-year cycle, offering significant wealth creation opportunities for those who balance Bitcoin holdings with strategically cycling through promising altcoins.
• Actionable Insight: Investors should differentiate their strategy for Bitcoin versus altcoins. For altcoins, especially in the AI crypto space, focusing on projects with real revenue and low FDVs, and being prepared to take profits when fundamentals don't keep pace with price, is key.

🔟 Ethereum's Position: Technical Strength vs. Fundamental Questions

• The conversation touches on Ethereum (ETH), which Obby notes has been outperforming Bitcoin recently, particularly in early May. From a trader's perspective, he concedes the ETH/BTC chart "looks all right," having recovered a previous breakdown level, suggesting good risk-reward for a tactical trade.
• However, Obby remains fundamentally skeptical: "I'm still seeing zero signs of ETH being able to deliver on anything." While acknowledging L2s like Base (an Ethereum Layer 2 incubated by Coinbase) are showing promise (e.g., Virtuals' successful pivot and activity generation on Base), he sees no resolution to ETH's core issues.
• Strategic Implication: While ETH may offer short-term trading opportunities based on technicals, long-term Crypto AI investors should remain critical of its fundamental progress and ability to address its underlying challenges before making significant allocations.

1️⃣1️⃣ Worldcoin and Barachain: Cautionary Tales

• Obby reiterates his bearish stance on Worldcoin (WLD), a project co-founded by Sam Altman that aims to create a global identity and financial network by scanning irises. Despite potential squeezes, he believes its high FDV ($14 billion) and emission schedule make it a risky long-term hold. "You really think there are billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars coming in to go buy your Worldcoin bags?"
• He also expresses disappointment with Barachain (a Cosmos-SDK based blockchain compatible with EVM), noting a lack of significant uptake so far.
• Jonah suggests such projects are at a point where they must pivot towards value or risk fading, highlighting the importance of monitoring projects for adaptability and product-market fit.
• Actionable Insight: High FDVs coupled with significant token emissions (like Worldcoin) present substantial headwinds for price appreciation. Investors should scrutinize tokenomics and be wary of projects that fail to gain traction or adapt, like the current concerns around Barachain.

1️⃣2️⃣ The Perils of "Pocket Watching" in Crypto

• The hosts discuss the phenomenon of "pocket watching"—obsessively focusing on other traders' profits and losses, exemplified by the community's fixation on a highly leveraged trader named James Win.
• Jonah warns that this is a distraction: "When you get focused on other people's money... you lose sight of the ball." He stresses that trying to replicate hyper-leveraged, "zero process" trading strategies is a recipe for losing money.
• Obby adds that "pocket watching" is really corrosive to both your P&L and your mentality, as it pushes individuals towards seeking quick, unsustainable gains to "catch up."
• Strategic Implication: Crypto AI investors and researchers should avoid the distraction of others' speculative successes. Maintaining focus on one's own strategy, research, and areas of "edge" is paramount for sustainable success, rather than chasing fleeting, high-risk opportunities.

1️⃣3️⃣ Exchange Risks and the Importance of Self-Custody in the AI Era

• Jonah raises concerns about centralized exchanges, specifically mentioning a "Coinbase hack" (referring to security incidents and user fund access issues). He questions Coinbase's legitimacy and stock valuation given these problems.
• Obby offers a nuanced view: Coinbase might be the first to admit widespread issues inherent in the difficulty of crypto security, or they genuinely mishandled things. He notes the challenge of protecting against social engineering and phishing. He also suggests Kraken, a competing exchange, has managed to stay more focused.
• Both hosts underscore the critical importance of self-custody. "You always have to hold some Bitcoin on a ledger... offline," Obby advises. Jonah connects this to emerging AI risks, suggesting that as AI becomes more advanced and potentially "rogue," the value of an air-gapped (physically isolated from unsecured networks) crypto storage "goes parabolic."
• Actionable Insight: Recent security incidents at major exchanges highlight the ongoing risks. Crypto AI investors must prioritize self-custody for a significant portion of their assets, using hardware wallets like Ledger. The rise of sophisticated AI further amplifies the need for air-gapped security measures.

1️⃣4️⃣ Reflective and Strategic Conclusion

• The episode suggests Bitcoin's path to $150k is plausible, driven by macro factors and a maturing investor base, while altcoin and AI crypto opportunities require discerning real value from hype.
• Investors and researchers should focus on projects with strong fundamentals and revenue, maintain disciplined investment strategies, and prioritize robust self-custody solutions in an increasingly complex digital landscape.