The Macro Pivot: Outcome-Based Intelligence. We are moving from AI as a Service to Results as a Service where software value is tied to revenue generation rather than seat licenses.
The Tactical Edge: Verticalize the Data. Build in sectors with non-public outcome data to create a compounding moat that resists commoditization by foundation models.
The winners of 2026 will be those who use AI to solve core human needs for connection and discovery while building defensible, data-rich business models.
The Macro Transition: Moving from "Big Model" monoliths to "Lots of Little Models" where distributed Bayesian assets represent specific physical objects.
The Tactical Edge: Prioritize "Object-Centered" architectures that track uncertainty. This allows robots to "phone a friend" when encountering novel data.
The LLM era is hitting a wall of implicit representation. The next 12 months belong to those building explicit, causal world models grounded in physics rather than language.
The Macro Trend: The transition from static benchmarks to live human-in-the-loop evaluation. As models saturate fixed tests, the only remaining signal is subjective human preference at scale.
The Tactical Edge: Monitor secret model drops on Arena to spot frontier capabilities before official releases. This provides a lead time advantage for builders choosing their tech stack.
The Bottom Line: Arena is the new kingmaker. If you are building AI products, their expert-tier data is the most reliable map for navigating the frontier.
The move from small models to medium models (15B to 70B) suggests that reasoning capability is outstripping the desire for low-latency edge deployment.
Implement instruction-following re-rankers to prune your context window. This prevents the model from getting confused by irrelevant data.
Stop building toys. The next year belongs to those who can build full agentic systems that handle billions of tokens without losing the plot.
The Macro Trend: The transition from black box scaling to transparent steering. As models enter regulated industries, the ability to prove why a model made a decision becomes more valuable than the decision itself.
The Tactical Edge: Deploy sidecar models for monitoring. Instead of using expensive LLM-as-a-judge prompts, probe specific internal features to catch hallucinations at the activation level.
The Bottom Line: The next year belongs to the pragmatic researchers. If you cannot explain your model's reasoning, you will not be allowed to deploy it in high-stakes environments.
Bitcoin is king: Expect Bitcoin to outperform traditional assets significantly; avoid fumbling this generational chance through common investor errors.
Evolve your strategy: The game has shifted from infrastructure hype and rapid trading to identifying and holding quality applications and tokens like Hyperliquid or Syrup with longer horizons.
Appetite meets fundamentals: While hype can drive initial pumps (e.g., Circle IPO), sustainable value lies in strong business models (Tether's organic growth) and clear token utility.
**IPO Appetite is Real (for Some):** Public markets are hungry for crypto, but primarily for clear narratives like stablecoins (see: Circle); broader adoption requires substantial revenue.
**VCs Get Flexible:** The smart money is adapting, ready to pounce on equity or tokens, depending on where the value (and exit) lies.
**On-Chain IPOs - The Next Speculative Playground?:** Imagine a world where early-stage crypto companies list on-chain, offering a more productive outlet for speculative capital than today's memecoin casino.
Regulatory Renaissance: The SEC's stance has softened, creating a more favorable U.S. environment for crypto; Ether's non-security status (for the scope of the past investigation) is a major win.
Ether as a Productive Treasury Asset: ESBET's strategy of acquiring and actively yielding Ether could set a new standard for corporate treasuries, showcasing Ether's utility beyond just holding.
The "Trust Commodity" Narrative: Expect a strong push to frame Ether's value around its ability to provide programmable trust and facilitate economic activity, with Lubin championing this.
High Premiums are a Red Flag: The massive premiums (some at 80x NAV) on many new crypto treasury stocks are likely unsustainable and warrant extreme investor caution.
Collateralization is the Catalyst: The primary systemic risk emerges if these shares become widely accepted as collateral, creating a leveraged ecosystem vulnerable to market shocks.
History as a Guide: The industry must heed the lessons from GBTC's collapse to prevent irresponsible risk-taking and a potential repeat of cascading failures.
PumpFun's Token Looms Large: With its massive user base and revenue, PumpFun's upcoming token is a critical event for Solana and the broader memecoin market, offering a direct investment into crypto's consumer wave.
IPO Window is Open: Circle's successful IPO signals renewed investor interest in publicly traded crypto companies, potentially paving the way for more listings and providing liquidity events for equity holders.
Regulatory Clarity is King: The future of crypto innovation, from token launches to organizational structures, hinges on clear market structure legislation to move beyond current cumbersome models.
