**A New Market is Born:** Templar isn't just cheaper; it enables something that was previously impossible for 99% of the world. Democratizing pre-training means anyone can build a truly custom, sovereign AI.
**Productization is Underway:** Covenant is no longer just a research project. With enterprise sales in motion, the focus is now on revenue. The team has committed that 100% of fees from custom training will be used to buy back its tokens.
**Economics are Being Rewritten:** Basilica’s incentive mechanism is a direct critique of unsustainable models on other compute subnets. Its focus on profitability and positive TAO flow sets a new standard for economic design on Bittensor.
Stop Trying to “Steer” AGI. The control paradigm is a dead end. The goal isn’t a more obedient tool; it’s a trustworthy teammate. We must shift from engineering control to cultivating care.
Alignment is a Process, Not a Product. True alignment isn't a fixed set of rules. It’s a dynamic process of moral learning, akin to raising a child. AIs that only follow rules are brittle and dangerous.
Build for Cooperation, Not Command. The technical path forward involves training AIs in rich, multi-agent environments where they must learn cooperation and theory of mind—the foundational skills for becoming a good member of a group.
AI Forces a Moral Reboot. The emergence of superintelligence renders our current societal goals dangerously obsolete. Survival must become the new prime directive.
Existence is a Team Sport. The "Don't Die" philosophy is a collective mission ("we don't die") to ensure species-wide survival, not a selfish quest for individual immortality.
Prepare for the Biological Sandbox. Humanity is moving from manipulating physical atoms and digital bits to programming our own biology—a frontier with both unimaginable potential and catastrophic risk.
US Leads in Capital-Intensive Frontier AI; China Excels at Industrial Diffusion. The US leverages deep capital markets for its massive compute buildout and AGI research, while China uses state direction to embed AI into its vast industrial base via open-source models and hardware.
Market Structure Dictates AI Strategy. The US "efficient oligopoly" model prioritizes global dominance and profit reinvestment by a few players. China's "subjugated swarm" model creates intense domestic competition, driving down prices and accelerating adoption at the cost of profitability.
Geopolitical Tension May Be a Necessary Stabilizer. The competition between the US's freedom-oriented, frontier-pushing approach and China's stability-focused, diffusion-driven model creates a complementary tension that could be essential for navigating the "narrow corridor" between AI-driven totalitarianism and uncontrollable chaos.
Development timelines are collapsing from months to days. AI allows developers to swap entire asset libraries or generate new game concepts at unprecedented speed, turning a two-month art project into a day's work.
The lifespan of any single game is shrinking. Prepare for a world of disposable entertainment. As AI floods the market with content, the strategy will pivot from creating one long-lasting hit to deploying a rapid succession of engaging experiences.
Games are the next evolution of the attention economy. Just as memes became a core tool for community-building around tokens, easily created games will be the next engine for capturing and directing user attention in a hyper-competitive digital world.
Word-of-mouth isn't a feature; it's the engine. Before spending a dime on marketing, obsess over the first 30 seconds of the user experience until people can't help but share it.
Being different is better than being better. Don't build incrementally better slideware. Redefine the core primitives of your category, as Gamma did by moving beyond the 16x9 slide.
Hire painfully slowly to protect your DNA. Resisting the temptation to scale headcount with user growth is a superpower. The goal isn't to hit a hiring target; it's to hire the best people.
Adopt a Stock Picker's Mentality. The crypto market is no longer a monolith where a rising tide lifts all boats. Focus on assets with real products, user growth, and cash flow, as the gap between winners and losers will only widen.
Shorting is a Tactical Assault, Not a Siege. Don't "invest" in a short. The only viable short strategies are tactical, targeting specific events like VC unlocks or news-driven spikes. Otherwise, even "total scams" can 5x against you.
Cultivate a Goldfish's Memory. The most critical trading skill is learning how to change your mind. Cut losing trades, forget the loss (but remember the lesson), and redeploy capital without emotional baggage. Stubbornness is a portfolio killer.
AGI Is a Definitional Debate. Progress toward an AI that can replace a remote worker is happening fast. However, achieving "true" human-like learning efficiency may require an entirely new paradigm beyond scaling current LLMs.
The New Creator Economy Is Code. AI is turning software development into a mainstream creative pursuit, empowering a new class of solo entrepreneurs who can build what previously required entire teams.
Incumbents Learned Their Lesson. Unlike past tech shifts, today's giants are aggressively adopting AI, making it both a sustaining *and* disruptive force. The market is large enough for both incumbents and startups to create massive value.
Build the Tools, Not Just the House: CZI’s greatest leverage comes from creating open-source tools and datasets. By building the fundamental infrastructure, they empower the entire scientific community—from academic labs to startups—to accelerate discovery.
Data Is the New Microscope: The future of biology hinges on a tight feedback loop between generating novel, purpose-built datasets and training domain-specific AI models on them. This synergy is unlocking insights that were previously impossible.
Virtual Biology Is the Next Frontier: Simulating biology computationally with "virtual cells" will become the new standard for research, enabling scientists to test riskier hypotheses faster and cheaper, dramatically compressing the timeline for major breakthroughs.
The Four-Year Cycle is Dead. The market is no longer driven by simple cyclical hype. Macro headwinds and competition for attention from AI mean investors must focus on projects with demonstrable utility, not just memetic potential.
Ethereum Gets Pragmatic. The Ethereum ecosystem is ditching idealism for execution, re-focusing on scaling its core infrastructure (L1) and building products with clear, real-world use cases for both consumers and institutions.
Institutions are Buying the Dip. Don't mistake retail fear for institutional exit. From Harvard's massive ETF allocation to Kraken's IPO plans, smart money is using the downturn to secure its position in the industry's foundational layers.
Capital Efficiency Is King. In the perps world, platforms offering unified margin will win. Aggregators that fragment capital are a structural disadvantage, making trading terminals the more logical endgame.
Onboard Hobbies, Not Traders. Crypto’s growth depends on moving beyond unsustainable, zero-sum trading narratives. The next million users will be onboarded through "hobbyified" social and entertainment apps, not another DEX.
Cash Now, Builders Later. In this environment, cash is king. Use this quiet period to identify teams grinding through the bear market, especially those with performance-locked incentives like MetaDAO projects. They are the asymmetric bets of the next cycle.
**Solve the Privacy Bug.** Institutions will not move sensitive operations onto fully transparent ledgers. The future is permissioned visibility, where regulators and involved parties can see data, but the public cannot.
**Composability is the Killer App.** The true unlock for on-chain finance is the ability to atomically combine different assets and workflows without operational risk. Fragmented L2s endanger this core value proposition.
**The Next Wave is Capital Markets Infrastructure.** The long-term moat for any network targeting institutional finance is not just its tech, but its ecosystem of interconnected banks, funds, and market makers operating in a compliant, private environment.
Stop Obsessing Over the Fed. The dominant force driving market liquidity is the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China, which dictates massive cross-border capital flows and underpins U.S. asset valuations.
This Is a Repricing, Not a Recession. The current market drawdown is a healthy positioning unwind, not a crisis. The lack of a fear bid in long-term bonds signals this is an opportunity to buy the dip in a structural bull market.
Bitcoin Failed the Safe-Haven Test. Gold remains the premier asset for hedging geopolitical risk. Bitcoin has demonstrated it is a high-beta risk asset, with its recent rally driven more by speculative corporate treasury activity than a fundamental macro role.
Value is Decoupling from EBITDA. A brand's true worth is increasingly measured by its cultural impact, not just its revenue. Tokenization provides the mechanism to price and trade this cultural capital.
Memecoins are a Feature, Not a Bug. They are the earliest, purest form of tokenized culture, proving that a financial layer can supercharge a community's growth and alignment.
Invest in Cultural Arbitrage. The biggest opportunities are in projects and brands whose cultural influence dramatically outweighs their current financial metrics. This gap between impact and income is where tokenization creates exponential value.
**Short Everything But Bitcoin.** The vast majority of crypto assets trade at unjustifiable multiples based on cyclical, speculative revenue. Bitcoin, as a "digital gold" macro hedge, is the only asset with a durable investment thesis that stands apart from the overvalued tech plays.
**The L1 Thesis is Dead.** Investing in L1s is a bet on obsolete infrastructure. Future returns will be captured by killer applications that build real businesses and bring non-speculative users on-chain, not by the commoditized blockspace they run on.
**Acquire Users, Don't Wait For Them.** Crypto's central problem is its failure to grow its user base. The winning strategy is to buy existing businesses with real customers and integrate blockchain technology, thereby acquiring distribution rather than trying to build it from scratch in a hyper-competitive market.
