Why Everything Broke at Once (Crypto, Tech, Gold) & What Happens Next...

Bankless Nation, it is the first week of dreary February. My god, this is started out pretty sad, hasn't it? First week of the bare market. Let's go.

I feel like we've known it's a bare market for a while, but this was this confirmation. Some people have known it's a bare market, of which you were one and I was not.

Oh, really? You're just finding this out?

Well, I was like, you know, prices go up, prices go down. This does remind me of that one day in 2018, halfway through 2018 where Bitcoin had fallen from $20,000 down to like eight or $9,000 and then people were still optimistic.

Then one day it went from $8,000 down to like $4,000 and that's when the whole industry was like, "Yep, this is a bare market." And I feel like the last people holding out on like whether this is a bare market or not turns from bare market to like just pure pain market and despond like it's more like and crypto is never coming back and it's dead.

That's what it's starting to feel like. Sentiment crypto sentiment right now is perhaps the lowest I have ever seen it. We'll get into that. It's not just that though. This is a very confusing time in the market.

This was a tweet that you sent me right before this episode. I honestly have no idea if we are close to a crash, a meltup or World War II, an AI industrial revolution, a mother of all short squeezes, a depression, a recession, or aliens. But it sure feels like all these things at once.

Yeah, crypto is not the only sector that is just materially impacted in the market right now. There's like tech stocks to talk about. There's like a rotation. Not all stocks are down. There are some people's portfolios who are just super happy, right?

No one we know. It ain't us. But if you were invested in value stocks and like yieldbearing stocks with revenues and dividends, like you feel pretty good right now.

All right. Well, we'll talk about crypto and freefall. The market carnage will evaluate it. The question is, is it over? And also, Vitalic had this tweet heard around the world. Let's give him a quote. He said this, "The original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense and we need a new path."

We'll talk about all the controversy behind this tweet. Also, the White House is just demanding that the banks and crypto get in a room and hug it out. They want Clarity Act passed as the demand from Donald Trump. So, we're going to talk about all that news.

And also out of the Trump world, the new incoming Fed chair has been named. Who is he? What's his stance on crypto? And is he good or bad for the markets?

We're going to talk about all of that and more. But first, moment to talk about some of our friends over at Kraken and their brand new DeFi mullet. shiny long robust DeFi mullet flowing flowing flowing locks of DeFi mullets. It's called Defi Earn.

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Nice to have stables right now. And if you have a stables, it is nice to have stables right now. I wish I knew what that felt like. But you can earn that 8% while you wait for this to all blow over, David. I'm sure it's just a passing thing.

So, let's talk about the market and some of the carnage we're seeing. Bitcoin has dropped below the April 2025 bottom. That was the tariff scare. Where are we at the time of recording? Realize guys, this is falling like a rock as we're even recording this episode.

Yeah, we I thought like maybe it paused, but no, it continues to drop. So, these prices might be outdated. Who knows? Maybe we bounce by tomorrow. You know, maybe we're out of the bare market tomorrow.

We Ryan are back to prices pre Donald Trump's inauguration. Yeah, we are we are pre-Donald Trump prices back into like the November. Remember remember when Bitcoin just absolutely rocketed on the news that Donald Trump won the election? That's where we are. We're all the way back there. We haven't erased the entire entire Donald Trump presidency.

So 46% of the in total crypto market cap has been erased since this October 6th. So you know 1010 happened and 1010 was like you know crypto had already started to roll over. We've lost almost half of the total crypto market cap since that moment.

That is not the only story going on in markets right now. QQQ, the tech sector, down 6% in the last like week or so. And then there's this IGV, which is the tech software sector, which is down 17% week overweek and 30% in 2026.

So not only is crypto crumbling, but other parts of the market are taking a massive beating. This is not this is this is a unique week in the markets for a variety of markets. Gold, precious metals are also falling.

Gold has fell below 4,500 and silver fell below $72 which represents something like down 12 and then also 30% respectively. Those have kind of come back. But overall there is just turmoil left and right no matter where you look.

All right. People are selling a lot of things. What are they buying? They got to exchange it for something. Is there anything that's going up?

Yeah. So energy, consumer staples, and then US dollar yields. These are all up. So consumer staples up 6%, energy is up 4.5%. So boring cash flow, high revenue sectors have been the place.

What's a consumer staple? Is that like Proctor and Gamble? Something like that, you know?

Yeah. Like recession resistant products. The Warren Buffett stuff like depend no matter what like the crypto market does, people are still buying like shampoo and soap, you know, stuff like that.

So the theme that I've come to like what's a common denominator here is in addition to crypto having its own reasons to be bearish. We can talk about the Clarity Act. We can talk about the incoming Fed Fed share that's potentially hawkish. But overall there's a handful of just like crowded trades across multiple asset classes that like leverage is getting kind of cleaned up and wiped out all at the same time.

So you have like the AI capex trade, you have crypto and precious metals. They're all kind of seeing the same move they usually get when like there's a bunch of people on the same side of the trade perhaps with a little bit too much leverage and then liquidity is also kind of thin and so there's kind of just a resetting of some of the risk end of the market the growth end of the market and especially with Google's earnings Ryan Google announced earnings this week and they forecasted something like a 50 or 60% increase in their capital expenditure for next week going from $110 billion of spending to $170 billion of spending.

Okay. And so the the market digested that and was like, "Oh, this is a lot of money. I'm kind of scared about the whole c the AI side of this growth market. Let me perhaps diversify into into value." So that's what's happening in trad.

So if you want to explain these things, why is QQQ down? It's because there's AI capex fatigue. And it's also because SAS companies are just like getting blown away right now because AI is poised to disrupt them. You know, if AI can write its own software, why do you need a Salesforce CRM?

So, that's happening. And then an explanatory reason for why silver and gold are going down is maybe the worsh factor, which we're going to talk about. This is the new incoming chair of the Fed, and he might be hawkish. Actually, we'll talk about that in more detail, but that could be a reason if you want an explanatory reason for why those markets are selling off.

Why is there so much more pain in crypto, David? So, we talked about the price of Bitcoin now 66K and continuing to drop, but what is that? That is down 21% since last week. ETH is down 30% since last week. Just getting absolutely walloped here. Why is why is crypto suffering for all of the mistakes from AI and SAS products and you know why why are we taking the brunt of this?

Yeah, it's a interesting it's a million-dollar question. There's a chart that's been going around which is that crypto has had this very high correlation with the software index. Software is the is the SAS index. There's this word that's been coined in the last week, the SAS apocalypse in the traditional equities market.

So, as you kind of alluded to, cloud code came out, cloud co-work, these new tools that people think are can just totally replace entire businesses like Figma, Legal, Zoom, Adobe, Salesforce, and so the SAS apocalypse was this week. That's what's that's what's going on in trade market.

Is that what this is that what this chart is? I've managed to This is an ETF that tracks SAS products. A SAS, if you overlay the SAS index over Bitcoin, it is the same shape. Like I know like sometimes like doing stuff like this is a little horoscopy, but like you can't tell me that that doesn't look a little bit same shape over the last what is this 18 months? Two years.

Two years or so. 18 months is right. Yeah. September of 2023 It wasn't always the same shape. Scroll out a little bit. It's different. This is selected data. But I see the point.

Yeah. I mean, why is crypto down so bad? I I think we can talk about a handful of things. The hawkishness of the new Fed chair that we talked about. We could also just say the four-year cycle, Brian. Like if you That's what I want to say. You can totally just say like and I I have been a fan of like saying the four-year cycle's dead, but like if you look at the price chart, I have not been. It's not what the price chart says. The four-year cycle is just continuing to play out exactly to a tea.

That's right. That's right. So, I I am not one to really like play these cycles. I don't really trade them. But the person I follow most closely, as you know, I'm sort of Mike Nato pilled and have he is just getting more and more correct. I hope he's doing some public tweeting about taking some victory laps. trying to build them up.

And for bankless listeners, there's a weekly report that Mike puts out on a podcast called the DeFi Report. And I joined him in those episodes. That's how I've been following this. But he's been calling for 65k Bitcoin, fair market value of Bitcoin since like October, before even 1010 when it was like not popular, when it was not cool.

And this is what's playing out like it's so there's a lot of fear in the market by some level David if the four-year cycle is playing out. This is exactly what you would expect to a tea from a price perspective also from a timeline perspective. It's just like not that scary if you believe in the four-year cycle.

Like that's the thing I I would be more concerned if people like Mike hadn't been predicting that this is exactly where the market is going and this provides a buying opportunity. No, that doesn't mean as soon as it hits 65K like it's over. Like you buy, you know, this was it and then we this is the bottom tick. No, there's there it's going to take you have some time here. It's going to play out over a long period of time. And this is this is when you start being more aggressive in your DCAs, but you don't dump your load.

Right. Right. Yes. And but like and then we have apathy to look forward to, I suppose. Yes. But somebody go check in on Michael Sailor and Tom Lee.

Okay. Let me see if they're okay because it seems like they're down bad. What's the story? The Dats the Dats are epically underwater. So we are well below not well below but we are under the strategy cost basis. Current strategy micro strategy cost basis is $76,000 Bitcoin. We are we are $65,000 Bitcoin. Uh so micro Michael strategy is currently sitting at a $6.5 billion loss.

So they underwater by $6.5 billion. That seems which which kind of sounds bad. Sounds bad. $6.5 billion is a lot of money to lose. The total strategy holdings is $50 billion. So like yeah, they have a lot of money though. But so he's been at this for 5 years and he's still under his cost basis. Like uh Michael Sailor has been dollar cost averaging for five years.

Yeah. And now he is underwater on that dollar cost average strategy. Right. It's notable. It's not It's notable. It's notable. How about Tom Lee? I mean, he's only been at this for less than a year, right? How's he doing?

He he in less than a year, Tom Lee managed to rack up a $6 billion unrealized loss. It's greater than that, David. Actually, um, it's closer to 8 to 9 billion now prices. Oh, no. Yeah. Like I I'm actually having a a hard time like actually getting updated figures on that.

So So Tomley accumulated $4 million as an average cost basis between 3,800 and $4,000 Ether. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, so I mean impressive that he is beating Michael strategy. Mind if I keep doing the Michael strategy in unrealized losses despite only being in the game one one quarter of the time?

No, that that makes sense, right? Because he he he bought some at the top. I mean, who among us hasn't top blasted in crypto from from time to time, right? Now, here's the thing though with um both uh Micro Strate both strategy and Tom Lee is people think that these DATs are going to like completely evaporate and die and go bankrupt or something like that.

Micro Strategy does have some debt that we've talked about, but so long as this bare market doesn't last for like many years, like like 10 plus years. Yeah. I mean, he's got his debt is well structured, it's just like not that bad. and um and and so you should be able to weather this out right now. You're not going to get an MNAV premium that's like attractive of course on on strategy. It might even go below MNAV like of one basically but and then Bit Bitmine is in a similar position except from a debt perspective like even better even though it has those unrealized losses.

Of course they're just unrealized losses at this point. There's really no debt on the BitMine balance sheet. In fact, they have a healthy cash position. Right. Right. It was It was just a bad trade, but they still own all of the Ether and they have no obligations.

It's a bad trade so far. So far. So far. So far. In this moment. In this moment. Yeah, of course. So, but everyone is dunking on Tom Lee and be like, "Oh, you idiot. Look, you're you've lost so much money."

I don't I think as long as the market returns, I think it will. Uh Tom Lee will be pretty well positioned. It just take might take a long time for that to play out. Like he's going to have to eat Crow for a long time.

Did you see there was a video clip of him actually calling a bottom at 2400 ETH earlier this week? Little early, but yeah, that it was just last week in which he we made that clip. The clip's already outdated. That was not the bottom.

But um you know, Tom, there's another article I read from CoinDesk saying, you know, Tom Lee saying that bit Bitmines's loss, paper loss, yeah, we could take paper losses by design. Basically, it's all according to the plan. this I mean maybe not that but this structure is meant to weather this type of storm and of course they're staking their ETH so they have cash flow positive cash flow unliquidatable pretty hard to liquidate Tomley so anyway it's impossible it can't be done because he has no leverage leverage that's right can't be done I mean like I think the the most valid critique of Tomley you can say is that he just did not optimize for price execution and just blindly bid ETH at whatever price.

Yeah. But that's that's it could have broken a different direction. It just didn't. Um Mike Novagrats Galaxy post $482 million loss in this crypto cash crash too in Q4. So imagine what it is in Q1 once that gets reported.

Yeah. No, that's a good good point. There's also there was a conversation about during earnings Galaxy earnings, Mike Norass implied that Galaxy had a client that sold 9 billion worth of Bitcoin and at least mentioned Quantum during that conversation about why they were selling.

And so Nick Carter and and them went back and forth on this, but Nick Carter emphasizing the point that like quantum is a dampener on what Bitcoin price can do in the short term. Yeah, I think that's true. I'm I'm believing I'm on Nick Carter's side of that narrative.

Now if you want to trade on Bitcoin or quantum or where price is going, Poly Market has some great opportunities for you to go do that. In fact, this is useful to just see the probability. What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? Wow, this has changed a lot. What are we looking at?

Yeah, so you see Bitcoin price in $5,000 increments. And of course, B market just giving it. It's telling us the market probability of what the market thinks that Bitcoin price will hit. So, the most likely thing because we are basically there, we're just a few couple hundred away, $700 away is $65,000, but you can go in either direction. $60,000, there's an 80% chance, according to Poly Market, that Bitcoin will hit $60,000 as opposed to only a 47% chance that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in the year of 2020.

And all it has to do is hit it. So, it could just touch it, right? Just wick it and these conditions will be fulfilled. Yes. Yeah. So you can kind of see it's an this is an interesting financial tool. It's really interesting. I I would like to see how accurate or capitaly efficient this tool is, but I don't think we've ever seen anything like this. I guess from I guess other than like implied price or implied volatility from options and stuff like this.

Yeah. But so opaque to me. They're they're they're hard to kind of reason about. Yes. This is very easy to reason about. like 55% chance according to poly market traders that Bitcoin hits $50,000 $50,000.

Okay, but David, there's a 5% chance that we hit 250K this year. All right, so don't give up. There's that's more than just a chance. There is always a chance. One of the interesting things about this crypto crash as Eric Belchunis has observed is that this is primarily coming from OG's selling. And I guess David, you made you made the point earlier to me. It's always that that's always how cycles end. I echo that and I I agree with you.

But this is Eric Balchunis. He says facts. Only about 6% of the assets in the Bitcoin ETF have left. 94% hang tough. Those ETF holders, they're hanging in there despite a nasty 40% downturn and many being underwater. OG's on the other hand, the OGs are selling. So they they are selling to the new holders who are I guess institutional trady ETF buyers.

That was our turning of the wheel. This is this is this is the cycle. This is what happens. Welcome a new generation of bag holders. Welcome to podcast. You got you got it. Next time come join the community. Eventually you wait enough cycles. You will be dumping on people. They will come join the community and the cycle will repeats and and every every cycle bank list gets new listeners. This is But there's always a next cycle, right, David? There's going to be a next cycle, right, David? Until proven otherwise.

All right. Until proven otherwise. This is some hopeful a hopeful take if you want to inject some hopeium. I don't know you may not be in the mood for this but Matt Hogan said actually I know it's crypto winter but the good news is crypto crypto winter started last January 2025. He goes through some justification. So we're 13 months into this.

Yeah. He goes through some justification and he basically says he shows that well crypto winter started last January. We just didn't feel it until now because ETFs were doing so well essentially because of DATs and the institutional bid and ETFs. And so if it started 12 months ago, maybe we're closer to spring than you think.

Yeah. What do you think about this take?

Uh I think that's right. I think that's right. One, wow. Despite the fact that I'm poor now. Yeah. I feel refreshed and optimistic about the opportunity that is presented to me. And this is something that Zenica said in a tweet just kind of like, you know, markets take psychological discipline. And I think that's maybe like something I would just kind of like to call out of just there's investing is pain. In investing is pain. This is this is a psychological experience. This is an emotional experience. Despite how everyone's supposed to be an unemotional investor, investing in markets is is fundamentally about your relationship with your own emotions.

One thing that he says, he puts out just like a list of advice and I want to kind of read out a few of these things. Number three is one of my favorites. Recognize that as the price goes lower, more people give up. Your competition literally leaves. There are outsiz returns for people that stick around. So like investing just gets easier as people fundamentally give up.

Six, go on walks, destress yourself. It's worth noting that if you are in this market and you've lost a lot of money, you are probably stressed out even if you don't think that you are or don't want to admit it. And so take a moment, close your eyes, have a deep breath. It's okay to be stressed. Ignoring your stress is worse than not ignoring your stress. Stop checking price all the time. Stop checking prices. Do what you need to do to maintain good psychological health because bad psychological health will lead to what he says in number seven. Obvious traps that people fall into in trying to feel better. Alcohol, drugs, leverage, revenge trading, revenge trading. Don't do that. You need to be smart. This is when the opportunities are here. So, be smart.

Overall, there's a link in the show notes to kind of list all of Zenica's tweets. Overall, I I ask listeners if you want to maximize the opportunity that we have ahead of us in the next year, be honest with yourself, be psychologically sound with yourself, and that's how you prepare yourself to to be a good investor.

You know, it's a bare market when bank list goes full therapy mode on a weekly roll up. That's good advice. I got I got to put my undergrad degree in you somehow. That's good advice, though. I um my take on Matt Hogan stake is I think he's being a little too optimistic. So I'm still in the camp of Michael NATO where the actual bare market starting in October. We got a full year to put in. So not until October of next year will things start to look a little more springtimey and will we get some buds until then.

But does that mean that you are DCAing? What are you doing about that fact?

Oh, you got to Well, um either DCA if you have, you know, stables or something like that and you could always DCA. You can DCA through all markets. That's kind of the default strategy if you're I like timing my DCAs.

All right. Well, if you if you time it, honestly, if you time it, I would clue into the DeFi report and you know, Mike thinks fair market value is 65K and under and then he's start going to start going risk. So, I would tune into that and I mean, not quite yet, but it's getting really attractive out there, I think, for for long-term holders probably.

David, we got more to discuss, including Kevin Walsh, the next Fed chairman. What's he about? And uh is he positive for crypto? He says some things about crypto and bitcoin also vitalic his comments is the rollupentric road map over David was this the pivot what is happening here? We'll talk about all that more but before we do we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

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Last Friday, Trump named Kevin Worsh as the new upcoming Fed chairman. Fed Kevin Worse is a former Fed governor and also Bush economic adviser. He is going to be he's nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair starting in May 2026. So not now but kind of soon.

Did you know David? So he he was in the FOMC but he actually rage quit the FOMC was one of the governors. He rage quit somewhere around I was it's 2010 2011. Mhm. Because he was fine with the initial bailout stuff, but then when the Fed like doubled and tripled down on quantitative easing, he was like that's not what we should be doing. This is bad Fed policy. He prefers like quantitative tightening and he thinks that the Fed has been grossly irresponsible in terms of intervening in monetary policy in the way that it has and expanding its balance sheet in the way that it has.

Do you mean do you mean post08 crisis a couple years after that after the initial auction he was criticizing the Fed for being being too zerpy?

Yeah. Well less zerpy. So less zerpy. So zerpy you mean z z z z z z z z z z z zero yield, right? Zero interest rate policy. It's unclear what he will do with interest rates. I think he will lower them. In fact, Trump is kind of indicating that like that's kind of why I picked him. But there's some Trump comments here, but less derpy, but more a a critique of how the Fed has done quantitative easing. So, buying assets basically, and placing it on its balance sheet.

Oh, being more hands-on and opinionated than what could they could have otherwise been. Yeah. He basically says it's it was a bailout for Wall Street. Asset price inflation was a bailout for Wall Street. Yeah. Asset price inflation is a bad thing and like shouldn't be done. and it caused massive wealth inequality in the US and like he's saying many of our talking points essentially which is why he's an interesting choice from Trump h okay okay okay uh what about crypto what does he think about crypto so uh he had some interviews he said that bitcoin is the new gold for people under the age of 40 he's also he's also a holder of crypto here's his onchain uh metric so we have his wallet we know his wallets We think we know his wallets anyway. He's got about nine bitcoins. He's got about 745k of crypto assets between bitcoin and ether. That's probably worth a lot less now. It's mostly bitcoin. It's mostly bitcoin. It's nine bitcoins and six ether. So, you know.

Yeah. Little favorite of bitcoin. Um people from crypto like uh from electric capital like know him, think he's an excellent pick for um for fed share. Actually, le let's get this direct quote because he went back and forth with an interviewer about Bitcoin. This is what Kevin Wsh had to say. Um, you made reference to Bitcoin and I thought I heard a little bit of condescension that people are buying Bitcoin in these things. But doesn't it Charlie Munger, this is two or three years before he died, Charlie Munger attacked Bitcoin. called it evil in part because it would begin to undermine the Fed's ability to manage the economy or it could provide market discipline or it could tell the world that things need to be fixed. Uh Bitcoin does not make you nervous. Uh Bitcoin does not make me nervous. I can hearken back to a uh a dinner I had here in 2011 um with a someone who is another guest on your show. I won't say his name. Um um Okay. Hey, I just did Mark Andre who showed me the white paper that was the original white paper. I wish I had understood as clearly as he did how transformative Bitcoin and this new technology would be. Uh Bitcoin doesn't trouble me. I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policy makers when they're doing things right and wrong. Um it is not a substitute to the dollar. I think it can often be a very good policeman for policy.

So his comment on Bitcoin is basically that it was a a check on bad Fed policy. I think pretty healthy from that perspective. Accurate and healthy. Yeah. Yeah. And he mentioned Mark Andre actually introducing him to it. So he's not afraid of it. He's familiar with that world. He's a crypto investor at least at some level.

This is why Donald Trump according to him according to Donald Trump actually picked Kevin Worsh. Uh Trump called Walsh, highly qualified, predicted that he would be remembered as one of the great Fed chairman who would not let you down. Um did Trump pick him because he would cut rates? Trump was asked that very question. He replied, "We talked about it. I've been following him. I don't want to ask him that question. I think it's inappropriate." It probably hilarious. What? And then he he went on, "It probably would be allowed, but I want to keep it nice and pure, but he certainly wants to cut rates."

What? He just wants to out of the goodness of his own heart. Of course, it would be it would be to tell the Federal Reserve uh governor to cut rates. So, I'm not going to do that because I want it pure. Wow. What kind of double talk is that?

So, um Kevin Worsh is also, I think, highly respected among investors. So, he worked for Stanley Ducken Miller. Um, Ray Dallio also likes him. So, Ray Dallio said he's respected for his capabilities and judgment. He understands the risk of having a Fed policy that is too easy as well as too tight. How to judge what's what. That's a good take.

Uh, Luke Groman actually thinks that he will be less because people are are talking about him as as being actually hawkish, maybe more hawkish. That's the word that everyone is describing this guy as he's I think he could be by default. But there's a difference between what you say when you're outside of the chair and when you're in it. Okay. So like he might be constrained by all we know this from Gary Gensler. Yeah. And so Luke Luke Groman quotes he says Wars is the hawkish choice for Fed chair. But in 2018 he co-wrote this Wall Street Journal op