Author: The DCo Podcast
Date: [Insert Date]
This summary breaks down why the obsession with fixed supply schedules is a distraction from the real driver of asset value: network usage. It is essential for investors deciding between the "hard money" of Bitcoin and the "utility money" of Solana.
Kyle Samani of Multicoin Capital challenges the "hard money" dogma that has dominated crypto for a decade. He argues that the market is mispricing the value of predictability versus the value of actual network utility.
"The point of the 21 million is that it's knowable ahead of time."
"They pick the wrong variable and then pick the losing argument."
"The system that becomes the most widely used will be the one whose native asset becomes money."
Podcast Link: Click here to listen
Where Bitcoin shines, supply schedule 21 million, like no questions asked. It is the most predictable asset in human history on that dimension. Where I think the money people have gone wrong is they overemphasize that one dimension at the expense of all of the others. And like yes, look, Bitcoin provides nine nines of probability around the supply schedule as we approach 21 million in the year 2140 or whatever it is. But like dude like nine nines and three nines like I don't think that matters. And so that to me is like a major point where I diverge from everyone else.
Ethereum people I think very stupidly leaned into the same basic framing and said oh yeah our programmable like great sure but ultrasound money ah deflationary. Aha we got you Bitcoin we outdid you. It's your own game. And I think that was just like a very stupid thing to do because I think it like yeah you're focusing on the thing that like even if you are correct that ETH stays perpetually deflationary like you can't prove that it will be deflationary and so there's fundamentally right it's not a predictable supply schedule and so like it's like a too smart by half I'm like no dude like the point of the 21 million is that it's knowable ahead of time which it is fundamentally not for Ethereum. So, I think that they like pick the wrong variable and then pick the losing argument for the wrong variable.
Speaker: And then I look at Solana. Look, I I'll be the first person to tell you I don't think Soul is money or whatever. But like since obviously comparable to ETH and Bitcoin as like a L1 asset, let's at least continue this framing for the purposes of soul. I wrote a blog post in 2018. I think it was called path to tens of trillions or something to that effect. And in it I I laid out what I called the utility thesis of money, which is the one of these systems that becomes the most widely used will be the one that like its native asset becomes money.
And to me, you know, coming back to the original framing of like censorship resistance, usability, I see a world pretty clearly, you know, in three years, I think Soul is substantially more censorship resistant in a world of multiple concurrent block producers than Bitcoin ever can possibly hope to be or even Ethereum, at least based on my current understanding of the road map, could hope to be. The primable part, obviously, Bitcoin is not even relevant.
