Empire
February 7, 2025

Where Are We In The Cycle? | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, Empire delves deep into the current state of the crypto market, dissecting recent liquidations, the role of stablecoins, and the evolving landscape of DeFi and venture capital.

Crypto Market Dynamics and Liquidations

  • “They changed how they report their liquidations, and it's actually a real understatement saying it's two billion.”
  • “Bitcoin held up reasonably well, it was down like 9% there was a wick when Ethereum hit like 2100...”
  • The market experienced an unprecedented liquidation day, with estimates ranging from $2 billion to $10 billion.
  • Bitcoin showed resilience, only dipping about 9%, while many altcoins plummeted over 25%, some as much as 90%.
  • These liquidations indicate heightened volatility and investor panic tied to geopolitical events like Trump's tariff announcements.
  • MicroStrategy’s massive Bitcoin purchases are propping up BTC's price, suggesting institutional influence active early in the cycle.

Token Supply Unlocks and Market Cap Analysis

  • “When I look at a chart where the market cap’s going up and price is going down, it means someone is bidding this aggressively.”
  • “It's important because some of these projects have tokens unlocking, and market cap is a better indicator.”
  • Understanding circulating supply versus total supply is critical; many tokens are undervalued when only a portion is unlocked.
  • Projects like UniSwap V4 enable customizable DEX logic through hooks, affecting liquidity and token economics dynamically.
  • Enhanced token unlocks can lead to bullish signals if market cap grows despite price drops, indicating strong investor interest.
  • Transparency in token supply and unlock schedules is essential for accurate market assessments and investment decisions.

Stablecoins as the Future of Finance

  • “Stable coins are the sexiest thing of this industry and deepening what's possible... they transform finance.”
  • “They are building in the open, and people are not even aware of it, but aggregators will evangelize this without telling users.”
  • Stablecoins are seen as foundational to the next phase of financial transformation, offering more efficient and transparent financial services.
  • They are poised to disrupt traditional banking by providing better savings rates and automating financial processes, making them accessible without user intervention.
  • Adoption by big tech and fintech companies, anticipated launches of institutional stablecoins, could mainstream crypto usage.
  • Stablecoin advancements can lead to mass consumer adoption, simplifying financial transactions and savings.

Venture Capital Trends in Crypto Fundraising

  • “No project in crypto needs to raise over 10 million… big VCs unfairly inflate valuations.”
  • “Raising a war chest gives projects a competitive advantage, but sets unsustainable valuation expectations.”
  • There is criticism over excessive capital raises in crypto, with claims that many projects don’t need such high funding.
  • High fundraising rounds lead to inflated valuations and pressure on teams to meet unrealistic performance targets.
  • Sustainable funding models are needed to foster genuine innovation without over-reliance on venture capital.
  • The current venture landscape may hinder the growth of more efficient, lower-cap projects due to financial skew.

Innovations in DeFi: UniSwap V4

  • “Hooks are separate smart contracts that attach to Uniswap liquidity pools, enabling custom DEX logic.”
  • “Developers can implement intents, limit orders, and customize fee structures without relying on protocol updates.”
  • UniSwap V4’s introduction of hooks allows unprecedented customization for DEX builders, fostering innovation in DeFi protocols.
  • This flexibility empowers developers to create tailored trading experiences, potentially leading to more robust and diverse DeFi ecosystems.
  • The ability to program custom logic can lead to novel financial products and services, enhancing liquidity management and user engagement.
  • However, such customization may pose security risks and complicate interoperability across different DEX platforms.

Key Takeaways:

  • Understanding Token Economics is Crucial: Investors must differentiate between circulating and total supply to accurately assess market cap and potential investment opportunities.
  • Stablecoins are Game-Changers: As stablecoins evolve, they are set to revolutionize financial systems by automating and democratizing access to efficient financial services.
  • Venture Capital Practices Need Reform: The crypto industry's reliance on high-capital raises may stifle genuine innovation and set unsustainable expectations for new projects.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvUpUuA8tJQ

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