Proof of Coverage Media
August 13, 2025

Title: DePIN Roundtable Ep.3 with Blockworks Research | Nick Carpinito

Nick Carpinito of Blockworks Research joins the DePIN Roundtable to dissect the data behind the sector's biggest players. This episode dives into Helium’s path to deflation, the influx of private equity talent into crypto, and the real-world business cases for networks like Geonet.

The Great Talent Rotation

  • "Smart people want to work on hard problems. As an industry, we have a hard problem... When I analyze the applications we receive, it is from the best crypto companies, but also the best private equity investment firms."
  • "It's no longer a black mark on your resume to say, 'Hey, I'm interested in exploring going to work for a crypto private equity firm.'"
  • The DePIN space is attracting top-tier talent not just from crypto, but from traditional private equity. This migration is fueled by compressed returns in trad-fi and the allure of generating outsized returns with new, crypto-native business models.
  • This talent influx serves as a powerful market signal. The fact that sharp individuals from institutional backgrounds are moving into the space legitimizes DePIN and suggests they see a clear thesis for value creation.

The Deflationary Flywheel

  • "At the current growth rates for DC burn, Helium needs to grow 4x in terms of revenue to become deflationary after the having... The timeline for this, assuming growth rates stay the same, is really within a year."
  • Helium: The network is on a clear trajectory to become deflationary. A potential merger of Nova Labs' equity with the HNT token could add ~$33 million in annual revenue, massively accelerating this flywheel. The key is shifting holder perception from treating HNT as an inflationary reward to a piece of the network's equity.
  • Geonet: Similarly, Geonet is only a ~2.5x in revenue away from its token burn rate outpacing emissions. It has achieved its status as the world's largest RTK network with a fraction of the capex of Web2 competitors like Trimble and has already secured a contract with the U.S. government.

New Structures for a New Economy

  • "It's become pretty clear that if you want to launch a crypto network today, you need to find a way to maximize the alignment between the labs company and the token."
  • The "foundation era" for crypto projects is ending, as many are viewed as parasitic. The new focus is on creating corporate structures that directly align the for-profit development company with the token and its holders.
  • Models being explored include DAOs acquiring their lab companies (like Morpho), converting labs into Public Benefit Corporations (PBCs), and drawing inspiration from real-world governance structures like Visa and Novo Nordisk.

Key Takeaways:

  • The DePIN sector is rapidly maturing from a speculative playground into a legitimate business disruptor. This evolution is marked by an infusion of institutional talent, a clear path to sustainable tokenomics for major players, and the emergence of sophisticated corporate structures designed for long-term value accrual.
  • Follow the Talent. The brightest minds from private equity are leaving low-return firms for DePIN, signaling a major shift in where future outsized returns will be generated.
  • Deflation is on the Horizon. Key networks like Helium and Geonet are on a data-backed path to becoming deflationary within a year, fundamentally transforming their tokens from inflationary rewards into scarce network assets.
  • DePIN Outcompetes Incumbents. Networks like Hivemapper and Geonet provide services that are equal to or better than Web2 giants at a fraction of the capital cost, creating an undeniable economic advantage for enterprise adoption.

For further insights, watch the full podcast: Link

This episode reveals the critical shift in DePIN from speculative concepts to revenue-generating businesses, highlighting how real-world adoption and innovative corporate structures are creating tangible investment opportunities.

The Macro Environment: Politics, Talent, and DePIN's Social Role

  • The discussion begins with an analysis of the New York political landscape, specifically the rise of socialist-leaning candidates like Mamdani. The speakers express concern that anti-business sentiment could stifle innovation, drawing parallels to the downturns seen in cities like San Francisco and London.
  • Santi argues that DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks)—networks where individuals contribute physical hardware for a shared service—can be a powerful tool for social cohesion. By creating community-driven business models, DePIN allows thousands of city residents to contribute to and benefit from local infrastructure, offering a counter-narrative to divisive political ideologies.
  • He suggests a strong correlation between certain social justice ideologies and anti-business policies, which could negatively impact the crypto ecosystem.

Inversion's Mission: Building the Berkshire Hathaway of Crypto

  • Santi provides an update on his firm, Inversion, which aims to acquire traditional businesses and integrate them with crypto rails. He frames this as a bold mission to prove the real-world utility of blockchain technology beyond speculation.
  • Inversion is attracting top-tier talent not just from crypto but also from traditional private equity. Jason notes this signals two key trends: the legitimization of crypto as a career path and the compression of returns in traditional private equity, pushing sharp minds to seek outsized returns in new models.
  • Santi emphasizes the frustration among talented teams who have built great technology but are limited to a small on-chain user base. His goal is to bridge this gap.
  • Santi powerfully articulates the vision: "Smart people want to work on hard problems. And I think as an industry, we have a hard problem... we built really good technology, and now is the time to deploy it."

The Maturation of DePIN: From Theory to Real-World Contracts

  • The conversation shifts to the tangible progress of major DePIN networks like Hivemapper and Helium. These projects are now producing reliable, at-scale data that is competitive with or superior to traditional Web2 alternatives, leading to real enterprise adoption.
  • Santi highlights that companies can now contract with networks like Hivemapper to reduce infrastructure costs, moving from being price-takers in monopolistic markets to leveraging decentralized alternatives.
  • The increasing legitimacy of the crypto space, underscored by Circle's public listing and positive legislative momentum like the passed FIT21 Act, gives corporate boards the "permission to explore" using DePIN solutions. This is a critical turning point, removing previous reputational and regulatory barriers.

The "Token Factory" and User-Generated Services

  • The discussion explores the convergence of on-chain and off-chain markets, with a focus on tokenization as a core engine for new economic models.
  • Jason references a thesis from Ribbit Capital's founder about a "token factory," where the intersection of AI and financialization through tokens will drive the next wave of innovation.
  • Mahesh introduces a complementary concept he calls User-Generated Services. While DePIN focuses on physical assets, User-Generated Services involve networks of people coordinating through a non-corporate platform to deliver economic value.
  • He also touches on ZKTLS (Zero-Knowledge Transport Layer Security), a technology that uses cryptographic proofs to verify private Web2 data on-chain without revealing the data itself. This massively expands the design space for verifiable, decentralized applications.

Helium's Path to Deflation, with Nick Carpinito

  • Nick Carpinito, a DePIN analyst at Blockworks Research, joins to provide a data-driven analysis of Helium's upcoming halving and its financial trajectory.
  • The core insight is that Helium is on a clear path to becoming deflationary. Nick's analysis shows that a 4x increase in revenue—which, at current growth rates, could happen within a year—would make the network's token burn exceed its emissions post-halving.
  • The discussion also covers the potential for a groundbreaking equity-token merger between Nova Labs (the corporate entity) and the Helium network. This could add over $30 million in annual recurring revenue from its MVNO and location data services to the token's value accrual.
  • Mahesh argues such a merger would be "outwardly bullish," as it provides immense clarity and aligns incentives, transforming the token from a speculative asset into a clear representation of the business's equity.

Evolving Corporate Structures for DePIN

  • The potential Helium merger sparks a broader conversation about the optimal corporate and governance structures for DePIN projects to ensure long-term alignment between the labs company, the token holders, and the network participants.
  • Jason outlines several emerging models:
    • DAO Acquisition: Following the model of Morpho, the network's DAO acquires the labs company, making the token the single asset for value accrual.
    • Public Benefit Corporations (PBCs): Labs companies can convert to PBCs, which have a chartered mission to benefit the token network, not just shareholders.
    • DATs (Decentralized Autonomous Trusts): These new legal structures can hold assets and execute operations on behalf of a network.
  • Santi adds that builders should study successful real-world consortiums like Visa and unique corporate governance structures like Novo Nordisk and LEGO to find inspiration for robust, sustainable models.

Geonet: The Quiet Giant of DePIN

  • The focus turns to Geonet, a project providing high-precision location data through an RTK (Real-Time Kinematic) network. Geonet is highlighted as a prime example of a project that prioritized building a real business with Web2 demand over crypto hype.
  • Santi recounts how Geonet gained significant traction with clients in agriculture and other industries before gaining attention in crypto. Its subsequent deployment on Solana amplified its visibility in capital markets.
  • Nick notes Geonet's tokenomics are clean and simple, with a direct mechanism for revenue to accrue to the token. The project's primary challenge is the long sales cycles in its niche industry, not a lack of product-market fit.
  • A key achievement is Geonet's long-standing contract with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a powerful signal of its legitimacy and reliability. The network is approximately a 2.5x in revenue away from becoming deflationary.

The Dawn Blackbox: A Bet on DePIN Composability

  • The new Dawn Blackbox hardware is analyzed as a major development in the DePIN space. It represents a move toward modular, multi-network hardware that can serve as a platform for an entire ecosystem.
  • Nick's analysis concludes that the Blackbox is sold at "razor-thin margins," meaning users are essentially paying retail prices for the components, with Dawn providing the assembly and software integration.
  • The device is designed to be an "app store for DePINs," allowing users to run nodes for over 10 different networks. Its modular and upgradable design directly addresses the hardware depreciation risk that has plagued other infrastructure networks like Bitcoin mining.

The Future of Energy: Virtual Power Plants and DePIN

  • The episode concludes with a look at the energy sector, specifically the rise of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs)—decentralized networks of energy resources like home batteries and EVs that can support the main power grid.
  • Jason explains that the grid is facing unprecedented strain, and decentralized generation and storage are the most viable solutions for scaling capacity. Tesla is a leader, but the market is vast.
  • He frames the opportunity in commodity market terms: "Every utility meter is an oil well... there's a heck of a lot of places to drill." The competition is over building the supply side, not finding demand.
  • Crypto projects like Daylight are positioned to compete by offering superior value and incentive alignment to users, potentially creating the first breakthrough household name in the energy sector.

Conclusion

This episode underscores DePIN's evolution into a mature sector where real-world revenue and sustainable tokenomics are replacing speculative hype. For investors and researchers, the key is to shift focus toward projects demonstrating clear enterprise adoption, strong value accrual mechanisms, and innovative corporate structures that ensure long-term alignment.

Others You May Like