This episode explores Believe, a new Solana-based memecoin launchpad aiming to revolutionize how indie app developers and growth hackers fund their projects, blurring the lines between memecoins and pseudo-venture capital.
Believe: A New Contender in the Solana Memecoin Ecosystem
- Host Jack Cuban introduces Ryan Connor, Head of Research at Block Works Research, to dissect Believe, a rapidly emerging application on the Solana blockchain.
- Believe functions as a memecoin launchpad but introduces a novel approach by aiming to provide a form of pseudo-equity in startups.
- Jack highlights its significant early traction: "of the top 25 new Solana token launches this week, 14 of those 25 came from Believe," indicating a swift challenge to established platforms like Pump.fun.
- The platform reportedly processed $724 million in 24-hour trading volume, underscoring its rapid adoption within the crypto community.
- The creator, Ben Pasternac, is a young founder previously known for the alternative food startup Nugs and Clout, an earlier iteration of what is now Believe.
Differentiating Believe: Targeting Indie Developers and Curation
- Ryan Connor, while acknowledging the general skepticism towards new startups, expresses cautious optimism about Believe's potential. He states, "I do envision a world where this could work out."
- Connor pinpoints two primary differentiators for Believe:
- Go-to-Market Strategy: Believe specifically targets "indie app builders and growth hackers who historically either undermonetize or can't monetize." It offers these creators a token-based mechanism to fund their endeavors.
- Curation Layer: Unlike platforms such as Pump.fun, where token creation is largely open and unfiltered, Believe implements a "more curated experience." This addresses a common critique of launchpads, which often lack quality control over listed projects.
- Strategic Implication for Researchers: The effectiveness of Believe's curation model in identifying genuinely promising indie projects versus hype-driven ones presents a key area for research into decentralized funding mechanisms.
Believe's Mechanics: Launching Tokens and App Curation
- Jack Cuban explains that while anyone can technically initiate a token launch by tagging Believe, the platform's team actively curates and features projects that are linked to "interesting startup or app ideas" on its user-friendly iPhone application.
- The app's interface is described by Jack as "Robin Hoodesque," suggesting a design focused on ease of use and accessibility, similar to its predecessor, Clout.
- Jack notes a significant recent change in Believe's App Store marketing language. The platform has shifted away from phrases like "bet on people and their ideas" towards more neutral descriptions such as "download this token launchpad." This change likely aims to mitigate legal scrutiny associated with offerings that resemble equity.
- Actionable Insight for Investors: This linguistic shift signals Believe's cautious navigation of the regulatory landscape. Investors should monitor such changes as they can impact the platform's operational scope and how users perceive the nature of their investments.
Funding the Unfundable: Believe's Niche in the Startup Ecosystem
- Jack questions the fundamental suitability of memecoins for funding projects that have venture-like aspirations.
- Ryan Connor clarifies that Believe is designed for a specific segment of projects that "cannot get venture funding and venture is not interested in this cohort."
- He references data on indie app developers, highlighting that most earn minimal revenue per app, with only the top percentile achieving substantial financial success. These smaller-scale projects often do not align with the massive scaling potential sought by traditional venture capital.
- Believe provides these developers an alternative route to monetize their projects beyond free cash flow, filling a gap where conventional equity fundraising is not a viable option.
- Ryan identifies "latent demand on both sides": developers seeking to monetize or raise small-scale capital, and retail investors looking for "venture-like upside in these kind of like small cap projects."
- Strategic Consideration: Believe could potentially unlock a new micro-cap asset class for retail investors, offering exposure to early-stage, non-VC-backed ventures. Researchers should analyze the unique risk-reward profiles of these "pseudo-equity" tokens.
The "Vibe Coding" Era: Rapid Capital Formation via Memecoins
- Jack Cuban frames Believe as a tool for "capital formation in the vibe coding era." In this era, app creation is accelerated, and memecoins offer an almost instantaneous method for pricing and funding new ideas.
- Founders can leverage Believe to launch a token and quickly gauge market interest: strong token performance can validate an idea, while poor performance might signal the need to pivot.
- However, Jack injects a note of caution regarding the volatile and often unpredictable nature of memecoin communities. He references the "weird situation" involving Jeffy Yu, the creator of Zero Bro, illustrating the potential downsides of engaging such communities as primary backers. He pointedly asks if "the juice is worth the squeeze."
- Investor Warning: While the rapid validation offered by memecoin launches is attractive, founders and investors must carefully weigh these benefits against the significant risks associated with the speculative nature and demanding behavior of memecoin communities.
Navigating Token Issuance: Challenges and Believe's Potential Role
- Ryan Connor acknowledges the inherent "complexities that come with issuing a token." These include managing business operations, development, marketing, and a community that may consist of unsophisticated or impatient investors.
- The volatility of token prices can send misleading signals about a project's underlying health, a stark contrast to how traditional stock movements are often interpreted.
- He notes that Believe's team is reportedly considering the implementation of standardized token allocations, vesting schedules, and providing "best practices as a token issuer." Ryan views this positively, stating, "their head's in the right place. There needs to be some standardization around issuance," especially since many targeted indie developers are Web2 natives unfamiliar with crypto intricacies.
- Actionable Insight: Standardization efforts by Believe could introduce a degree of professionalism and predictability to this nascent funding model. This could potentially reduce risks for both founders and investors involved in these early-stage projects.
Case Study: The Jelly Jelly Token and Broader Market Maturation
- Jack discusses the Jelly Jelly token, launched by a Venmo co-founder for a video app. This token experienced a dramatic price spike followed by a significant decline and was reportedly linked to an exploit on the Hyperliquid platform.
- Ryan Connor suggests that while "weird things are going to happen" due to the close proximity of crypto capital markets and highly speculative memecoin markets, there are emerging signs of market normalization.
- He observes that "the ability of people to just spin up an L2 and get multi-billion dollar valuations is increasingly is becoming less common." This indicates a maturing market that is gradually becoming more discerning about project valuations and fundamentals.
- Emerging Trend: The crypto market shows signs of maturation, with decreasing tolerance for purely speculative launches commanding excessively high valuations. Believe's long-term success will hinge on whether its curated projects can demonstrate genuine, sustainable value beyond initial speculative hype.
Believe vs. Zora: A Tale of Two Launchpads
- Ryan Connor revisits his earlier critique of Zora, a platform enabling users to "coin" or tokenize content. He had argued that content, being "hyperabundant" and "non-scarce," presents fundamental challenges for value accrual through tokenization.
- His primary criticism of Zora centered on its product design choices: "They removed all the useful features for a launchpad," such as price charts and grid views essential for assessing return on investment. He suggests this was an attempt to appeal to Ethereum natives focused on creator monetization rather than financial speculation.
- Believe, in contrast, deals with what Ryan terms "scarce units of value" (representing potential cash flow streams from applications) and provides essential trading features. He notes, "I can look at the price chart on the believe app and I can assess the relative financial characteristics of the tokens."
- Key Distinction for Investors: Believe openly embraces its function as a financial launchpad equipped with appropriate analytical tools. Zora's attempt to downplay this financial aspect, according to Ryan, hindered its utility for speculative trading, which remains a primary driver of activity on such platforms.
Ethical Dilemmas: Retail Investment Without Equity Rights
- Jack Cuban raises a significant ethical concern regarding Believe's model: it allows founders to raise capital through memecoins without granting investors any formal equity, ownership, or financial rights in the underlying projects.
- He quotes directly from Believe's FAQ for creators: "If you're not promising returns ownership or financial rights and the coin is clearly meant for fun you're likely operating in a safe zone."
- Jack questions whether this approach is "deeply unethical," as retail investors might be led to believe they are acquiring a tangible stake in a company's future, when in fact they are not.
- Critical Risk Factor: The "for fun" disclaimer, while serving as a legal safeguard for Believe, means that investors are acquiring tokens with no explicit contractual claim on the future success or revenue of the projects. This is a paramount risk that investors must understand.
The Regulatory Tightrope: Navigating Compliance in an Unclear Landscape
- Ryan Connor contextualizes the ethical issues within the current "messy middle" of regulatory ambiguity surrounding cryptocurrencies in the United States.
- He argues that token issuers face a difficult dilemma: "You want to give it utility, but you can't. You actually can't," due to fears of classifying tokens as securities.
- He draws parallels with disruptive tech companies like Uber and Airbnb, which effectively "front-ran legal regulatory change." Waiting for complete regulatory clarity, he implies, could mean forfeiting significant market opportunities.
- Ryan suggests that the responsibility for this challenging environment lies with lawmakers and regulators for their failure to provide timely and clear guidance. He mentions the Trump memecoin, which offers perks like a dinner, as an example of projects navigating the fine line between a collectible and a security.
- Strategic Implication for Crypto AI Ventures: Believe operates in a significant regulatory grey area. Future legal and regulatory developments could profoundly impact its business model and the viability of tokens launched on its platform. Investors and researchers in the Crypto AI space must monitor these developments closely.
Scalability and Sustainability: Can Believe Maintain Momentum?
- Jack questions whether Believe's curated approach might inadvertently lead to a finite number of investment opportunities, potentially causing users to lose interest once they have explored the available projects.
- Ryan Connor believes Believe targets a distinct niche compared to Pump.fun, focusing on "hyper micro cap tokens that like have a real future." He suggests that the current high market capitalizations for some Believe tokens are "far too high" and anticipates a "moderation lower," which he views as a healthy market correction.
- He candidly acknowledges the risk: "if it fizzles because there's just not enough people, there's not enough capital, perhaps there's not enough ideas, like I won't be surprised."
- Market Outlook: Believe's long-term sustainability depends on a continuous pipeline of quality indie projects and sustained investor appetite for this specific type of micro-cap, pseudo-venture investment. The platform's ability to consistently source and vet compelling projects will be crucial.
Believe's Identity: A Financial App, Not a Social Platform
- Jack Cuban draws a comparison between Believe and social media applications that use "infinite scroll" algorithms to maintain user engagement, noting that Believe's content is inherently more finite.
- Ryan Connor counters this by asserting that Believe is fundamentally a "financial app," not a social app. As such, it does not require daily active users (DAUs) or an endless stream of content in the same way social platforms do. "Ideally you're a weekly active or a monthly active user of believe," he suggests, aligning with typical usage patterns for investment platforms.
- Perspective for Analysis: Understanding Believe as a specialized financial tool, rather than a mass-market social platform, helps set realistic expectations for its user engagement metrics and overall growth trajectory.
Technical Feature: Believe's Anti-Sniper Mechanism
- Jack highlights Believe's partnership with Meteora to implement an anti-bot mechanism within its token bonding curves. This system involves initially higher transaction fees designed to deter "sniping"—the practice where bots buy up tokens immediately upon launch, often disadvantaging regular users.
- Bonding Curve: A smart contract that algorithmically manages the supply and price of a token. Tokens are minted when purchased and burned when sold, with the price adjusting based on a predefined mathematical curve. Fees can be programmed into this mechanism.
- Ryan Connor opines that at the very low market capitalizations typical of platforms like Pump.fun, most users "don't think users care" significantly about sniping fees, as the investment amounts are often small and highly speculative.
- However, he concedes that "you need more sniper resistance in believe than you do pump fun." This is because Believe tokens are associated with pseudo-equity in potential businesses, making fairer initial distribution and price discovery more critical.
- Jack remains somewhat skeptical, suggesting that launches by high-profile creators on Believe could still be targeted by sophisticated bots, even with higher initial fees.
- Research Focus for Crypto AI: The effectiveness of Believe's anti-sniper mechanism in ensuring fairer launch conditions and its actual impact on token distribution patterns presents a valuable area for observation and quantitative analysis by researchers in the Crypto AI field.
Is Believe Just Kickstarter with Memecoins? Examining Novelty and Execution
- Jack Cuban draws a comparison between Believe and Kickstarter, the well-known Web2 crowdfunding platform (which also has a Web3 presence on Cello), questioning the extent of Believe's novelty. Kickstarter similarly offers rewards (such as products or unique experiences) rather than equity in exchange for funding.
- Ryan Connor argues that pure "novelty matters at all" is not the primary determinant of success in the tech space. He cites Facebook, Instagram Stories, and Pump.fun as prominent examples of platforms that achieved massive success by iterating on existing ideas or user behaviors rather than introducing entirely new concepts.
- He states, "Pump Fun did nothing new...all they did was take those very popular features, bundle them into a product, minimize the friction...and it became its own thing."
- For Believe, Ryan suggests, success will likely hinge on effective execution and "the little things that they do on the edges," rather than on being a completely original invention.
- Strategic Insight for Investors: Believe's potential competitive advantage lies not in groundbreaking originality but in its specific execution model: targeting indie developers, curating projects, and uniquely leveraging the memecoin phenomenon for a new form of micro-venture funding on the Solana blockchain.
The State of Consumer Crypto: Financialization and Future Outlook
- Ryan Connor concludes with his assessment that "consumer crypto is here objectively for anyone who's willing to see it."
- He characterizes the current landscape of consumer crypto as "highly financial" and dominated by "fun gambling adjacent consumer apps that have some unique unlock," rather than by decentralized versions of existing social media platforms. Pump.fun serves as his prime example of this trend.
- He observes that founders are increasingly leaning into these "highly financialized experiences."
- Ryan expresses optimism about the future, stating, "regulatory clarity is like on the horizon and couldn't be a better setup."
- Investor Takeaway: The prevailing trend in consumer-facing crypto applications is marked by financialization and speculative activity. Believe aligns with this trend by offering a novel mechanism to speculate on early-stage projects. Impending regulatory clarity could either legitimize and foster such models or impose significant constraints.
Reflective and Strategic Conclusion
Believe's emergence on Solana signals a novel fusion of memecoin mechanics with pseudo-venture funding for indie developers, creating a high-risk, high-reward environment. Crypto AI investors and researchers should closely monitor its curation quality, regulatory navigation, and the long-term viability of funding startups via non-equity tokens.
