The “Quantum Threat” Behind Bitcoin’s Sudden Sell-Off

It is the fourth week of January. It's time for the Bankless Weekly rollup.

David, Trump wants to take over Greenland. Is that good for our bags? Trump land. No, Trump land.

We'll talk about the market's reaction to this. Also, all eyes on Davos this week. There were a couple themes there. It was maybe Trump versus the world, but also crypto versus TradFi. There was an appearance by crypto folks at the World Economic Forum. Brian Armstrong was there. Jeremy Lair was there. CZ was there. Kind of a who's who of crypto.

It is new to have crypto people on the same platform as all the TradFi central bankers. Also, the New York Stock Exchange has announced their tokenization platform using a lot of our words to talk about their new tech product, their new trading platform. We're going to talk about it if it's good or bad for the rest of crypto. Is this another Tempo or is this people actually leveraging our blockchain?

We're going to talk about that. Also, not the greatest week for decentralized social platforms. Both Farcaster and Lens kind of throwing in the towel getting acquired by apps inside of their own ecosystem. Interesting. Did decentralized social fail?

We're going to talk about that. And also very large institutional investor at Jeffre, don't know what Jeffre is. Ryan's going to tell me what it is. Says he's selling Bitcoin because of quantum. And that is not he's not the only one. There is starting to be a trend of the market not liking Bitcoin because of the existential risk of quantum.

We also have an update on the Clarity Act, of course, and an update on the next Fed chair. Is he going to be crypto friendly?

Before we get to all of that, we got to thank our friends and sponsors over at Immunifi. David, what's Amunifi up to?

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David, let's talk about markets and why they're down on the week. At least one explanation for why they're down. And that's because Trump wants to invade Greenland.

At least it seems like how many people live in Greenland?

How many people live in Greenland? Right. It's like, is it something like 50,000?

It's not that many. Something like this.

How many people live at Greenland?

56 to 57,000 people. Probably would be pretty easy to invade, actually. It's not about the people, though. It's about the resources, I guess, for Trump.

So, what went on here?

Okay. So, this started a while ago, and this was one of many crazy things that Trump just murmured, and you can't give credit to all of them. And so this is one that actually was murmured a while ago and now has in this last week or two weeks has become actually a.

Is this a real tweet? Is this a real thing from the Oval Office of the White House?

This was a real tweet from Donald Trump's truth social which is a map of the United States and Canada and Greenland and also Venezuela all with the American flag on it. So like kind of implying that like this is our domain like we are going to take all of these things.

Yeah. kind of implying that they all belong to America, I would say. Yeah, cuz like 6 months ago there were huge protests in Canada about how Canada doesn't want Trump to take over Canada cuz they definitely don't. I mean, I have Canadian relatives. They definitely don't want this.

Of course they don't. But like Trump was like, "Yeah, we're going to take Canada and it's become the 51st date." Anyway, hilarious. Now we're talking about Greenland. And so like last week and this week, Donald Trump has started to like publicly and privately push for the United States to acquire Greenland, framing it as a strategic necessity.

Mainly just because, you know, as the crow flies, a straight line between Moscow and the United States and New York, Washington DC flies straight over Greenland. So, kind of in the same way that like Russia found its way into Cuba to like set itself up very close to the United States, that's kind of how they're positioning Greenland is like, you know, this is a strategic buffer between us and Russia. So, for United States national defense for our strategic operations across the globe, we need to acquire Greenland.

Okay. Greenland is owned by Denmark, which is like a weird weird thing. Was it like a commonwealth of Denmark? Something like this. They have their own flag. They have their own like rules, but something to do with Denmark.

So, Denmark and Greenland's government flatly rejected the idea saying Greenland is not for sale and also announced that they are moving their military into Greenland. And so they are they are actually actively moving troops into Greenland in coordination with other members of the EU. So the EU, the EU is like, well, we are going to take this very seriously. We are going to move our military into Greenland. Crazy, bro.

Trump states that anything less than US control of Greenland is unacceptable. Says that the island is strategically essential essential for the United States defense against Russian China. And then also during the WEF conference, which we're going to talk about this week, at Davos, says that the US saved Greenland during World War II and shouldn't give it back, leading to one of the most unhinged Donald Trump clips that I have ever seen.

Are we playing the clip?

Let's play a long clip. Let's play the clip.

Okay. We saw this in World War II when Denmark fell to Germany after just 6 hours of fighting and was totally unable to defend either itself or Greenland. So the United States was then compelled. We did it. We felt an obligation to do it to send our own forces to hold the Greenland territory. And hold it we did at great cost and expense. They didn't have a chance of getting on it. And they tried. Denmark knows that. We literally set up bases on Greenland for Denmark. We fought for Denmark.

He goes on like that. I'm just going to cut that off.

Okay. He says, "Without us right now, you'd all be speaking German and a little Japanese perhaps." Wow. Talk about I mean that that was a long time ago. Talk about some stolen valor there. I mean like Right. Yeah.

Okay. This is something I learned this week. Did you know, Ryan, that we already have in effect today, which continues today, the 1951 Greenland defense agreement between the United States and Denmark, establishing a Cold War pact allowing the United States broad military access to Greenland for NATO defense. We already have what we what he says we want from it.

Okay. Who knows? It's so hard to know what's going on, but there was some escalation, right? You mentioned some NATO forces on on Greenland being deployed. And then Trump said, "What if you guys do anything here? If you don't let me take Greenland, I'm going to tariff you." Is it 10% tariff?

The 25% tariff. 10% tariff on several EU countries. The talk of escalating it to 25% later in the year. This is when the market sold off. I don't know if you noticed your bags, Ryan, but they're not as great this week as they were last week. We are pertain we are saying that this is absorbing that.

Yeah. Well, the it's apparently because of the the the the tariffs is what why we're saying it happened. Also, happy, you know, roughly one year anniversary of Independence Day when we were doing the tariff scare about a year ago. I don't know when that was, but it's about a year ago.

Oh, that was like a That was like April, wasn't it?

Was that April? Yeah, I think it was April. I think it was April. So, Q1 last year was marked by like growing tariff murmurings. And definitely the chaos has been pretty consistent for the last year or so.

So, but but as I understand it, as of now, it does seem like there is a Trump Greenland deal that has emerged. So, the tariffs are now off the table. This deal now involves small pockets of land for the US. The US involved in in Greenland's mineral rights. So, the US gets some mineral rights. Uh indefinite time frame designed to block Russian influence in Greenland. The US puts a golden dome over everything and some infrastructure investment.

Again, this is maybe Trump saying, "Okay, that's what I want, at least right now, and I art of the deal, and I created this deal, and now America gets Greenland." It's not quite it's not that much different than what we already had.

Yeah. And like my my attitude is like, we already know who Trump is, so like maybe it's naive to even say this, but like wasn't there more constructive ways of getting here? Like, did we really have to do the Tempest in the Teapot strategy? Couldn't we have gone to Denmark and be like, "Hi, Denmark. We would like to expand the scope of our alliance. Let's work together and get me what what we want. Here's what we want. What can we get you?" But no, we had to be like, "We're going to invade you guys."

It's a stylistic preference, David. It's just like chaos as a strategy. Let's look at Poly Market which is giving us some insight here. So, will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 is the prompt. And now it's a 13% chance. So that's down from 20 earlier this week. So if you'd like to trade this market, you certainly can.

The other market is will the US acquire part of Greenland by 2026. So the first market part of part of Greenland for there are two different markets. One is all of Greenland and then the second market is will the United States acquire part of Greenland which got up to 35% this week down to 24% right now. But 24% where we just acquire part of Greenland.

How would we do that?

would like I don't know remember state like Puerto Rico the Louisiana Purchase you know Alaska those became like states and stuff like but like what what would it be would it be like Puerto Rico I don't like a protectorate type thing or would it become a state,000 people is fewer people than any state that we have also who do you buy it from also what about the uh the sovereignty of the Greenlanders like they should those 50,000 people should get to vote for this right I don't I don't know too many Greenlanders, Ryan?

I'm guessing they don't really want to become part of the United States. I don't know. There's some protest clips. It's it's hard to know. Maybe we should do a poll. But anyway, so this seems to be resolved and abated at least as of now. But this was the the fall fallout in in markets. This is kind of I would call this um more continuation in the capital flight. somewhat mild capital flight, but like you saw it on the week, which is the dollar goes down, equities go down, primarily US stock market, yields on bonds go up, US bonds go up, and gold goes up, silver of course goes up even more.

And uh, you know, someone called this on Twitter the capital outflow doom loop. And here's kind of what they mean, David. I was looking at some of the the yields on the 10-year. And what's interesting about this is you remember in September 2024, we started the the Fed started reducing rates, right? So it was, I don't know, five and a half, something like that. And then we've been reducing rates since September of 2024.

While that was happening, the yield on the 10-year has actually increased. So again, the rates that the Fed decreases is kind of the Treasury yield, right? It's the short-term rates, but the 10-year rates, which is like some kind of confidence of will America pay its debts, you know, what will inflation look like? That's been rising. So, we've got higher 10ear rates than we started with.

And Joe Weisenthal, right? So, we're reducing rates on the on the short end, but the 10-year rate, that's market controlled. That's do people want to buy our, you know, 10-year bonds? yes or no. And if no, then you have to give them higher yield. That's actually gone up. So, this affects 10-year prices. This affects mortgage prices, too.

Isn't this a inverted yield curve? Isn't that what that means?

yeah, I don't know what like technically that means, but it just means that capital is is fleeing the 10-year, right? At the same time, we're we're lowering rates. And so, this is not good for uh 30-year yield and and mortgage rates. Yes. It's it's not good for the market. The market is signaling that like in the longer term the dollar is going to be even less dominant than in the short term is how I read that.

That's yeah, you have to pay investors more to hold your 10-year bonds, right? Which is kind of some mild capital flight. And that's all going to the debasement trade. But how did our debasement crypto assets hold up on the week?

What's Bitcoin's price?

Don't you don't want to know about that. Um down 7.5% on the week, $89,400. Ether also not great, down 11% to 2,950. So, we're below $3,000 on the mark. And this has just kind of been the story of just like people like gold. And of all of the chaos and fear and uncertainty in the market about what this new future, global global status quo, global equilibrium is, people are going to gold, not not crypto.

You know, some somehow though, Michael Sailor found about $2 billion to go buy some Bitcoin. So he actually made one of the biggest buys, the fourth largest buys in history for for strategy. Uh 0.11% of all Bitcoin supply. He purchased that last week. So he is still bullish. He's waiting for his moment.

So did you hope there listen to Michael Sailor on our friend Alex Thorne's podcast?

when he was on that was in my queue, but I never got around to it. I don't know if he went down just to to interview Sailor, but maybe he did. He like flew down to Sailor's home and interviewed him in Sailor's home.

Okay. uh which is kind of cool. Uh really interesting episode about how really puts in the work as a podcast. It does. Not like not we stay in the comfort of our own homes. Um but like really this whole idea sailor's whole idea is like what does strategy do is it like unlocks this concept of digital credit and that's what that's what the Michael strategy does. It like it it builds strategy. it it's this digital credit facility. I thought it was a pretty interesting way to like frame it. I also think it's a complete narrative, which is not incorrect, but he's like creating an idea and selling that idea. Bitcoin, I hate to break it to you, but Bitcoin is also just a narrative. This narratives on narratives. This narrative is all the way down.

All right, you all. So, uh, total crypto market cap, we're hanging at three trillion, 3.11 trillion. Let's talk about Davos because I think there was two interesting things that really played out, at least to me, that stuck out. One is Trump versus the world. Let's get the Trump side of things. This is Howard Lutnik addressing Davos and the international community. Here's what he had to say.

We are here to make a very clear point. Globalization has failed the West and the United States of America. It's a failed policy. It is what the we has stood for which is export offshore far shore. Find the cheapest labor in the world and the world is a better place for it. The fact is it has left America behind. It has left the American workers behind. And what we are here to say is that America first is a different model. One that we encourage other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first. We can have policies that impact our workers. Sovereignty is your borders. You're entitled to have borders. You shouldn't offshore your medicine. You shouldn't offshore your semiconductors. You shouldn't offshore your entire industrial base and have it be hollowed out beneath you. You should not be dependent for that which is fundamental to your sovereignty on.

He goes on like this uh for a while, David. But the message that the Trump administration, all the representatives, Trump himself brought to Davos, the World Economic Forum was like globalization, that era is over. America first. And by the way, all you other countries, you should do the same thing. What's really interesting about this, David, is this is such a departure from, I think, US policy over the last 80 years or so. But it's not a departure from what Trump has been saying from the get-go.

No, but now it's just being said in this type of form, and it's being said with the backing of policy like tariffs and like we're coming after Greenland and all of these other things that accompany it. But it's just kind of marking the end of the rules-based international order that the US set up in the first place. I mean, the US was very pro- globalization and has been that's been a strategy. In fact, the Indian foreign secretary commented on on this speech. The US was the main force behind globalization. It was made possible in the collapse of the the Soviet Union. Globalization was a product of the belief in the end of history in US circles. remember that book uh Fugyama book the end of history which is basically liberalism globalism international order like the rest of the world's going like hey didn't you guys set this whole system up and now you're saying you did this you did this to yourselves.

Yeah you did this to yourself and also I thought it was a good deal for the US there was also on the other side of this David another speech that got some play I won't play the the full speech but this is actually Canadian prime minister Mark uh Carney and he basically said the same thing that he he said, "Wake up. The rules-based order is broken." He said, "There's a rupture in the world order. The end of a pleasant fiction, the beginning of a harsh reality, a reality where great parters uh powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as as leverage. If we're not on the table, we're on the menu. So, stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is. Nostalgia is not a strategy." He's basically saying middle countries, everyone who's not in the US, like wake up. Americans are doing something different now. Don't live in that fiction. The world has changed.

Yeah, I we have done a bunch of episodes in the past a while ago about the Triffin dilemma and uh the Triffin dilemma being the world reserve currency being the United States dollar has this like trap where it hollows out the hollows out the middle class, hollows out the manufacturing base. Uh and what do we get from that? Well, we get to print free money, but we don't have any domestic manufacturing that goes ex and is exported to China. The weaknesses of that show up during COVID when we don't have any masks and like all of our supply chains are realize that like completely dependent on foreign powers. Uh and then Trump gets elected based off of that. like all of these swing states, the Pennsylvania, like the all the manufacturing belt, uh, all swing from blue to red, elect Trump, and then Trump does all of this stuff, and then gold pumps, the nar like hindsight 2020 like kind of makes a lot of sense.

There was a meme that I saw this week that I kind of think summarizes this like you you everything you said was very smart, Ryan. Here's the um explain it like I use crayons uh meme. Uh so for those listening, it is a map of the world and there are three squares drawn on different regions of the world. The Americas, have you heard of the the the thing that's been coined recently called the Don Row doctrine?

Yeah. Monroe doctrine was basically saying the western hemisphere is our US. Don't touch it. Like that's that's our it's our manifest destiny to control that. So being updated from the Monroe Doctrine to the Donro doctrine because of Donald Trump. So, we have the Americas, you know, draw a big crayon circle around the Americas. That's Donald Trump land. Then you have the upper quadrant of like Russia and and Ukraine and and Eastern Europe and that's Mr. Putin's. And then you have like Africa and China and Australia and Malaysia. That is Zingping. And these are the three powers and this is the world and this is how the world operates. and you know this is this this are the three geographic domains and get in line under this new world order. Is that kind of aligned with what you're saying?

Yeah, I think that's it is basically like um rather than rules-based international order, it's back to power back to power brokers. And this is like Mark Carney was acknowledging this like the thing about this map that you're drawing is just like Europe is not and some of the middle middleling countries like a Canada or like even in India let's talk about in India they have alternatives as well right and they they are actors in and of themselves and they can they can um make maneuvers based on this type of a chop up of the world and I expect them to in the future but what this all means is just like end of an era and what does that mean for the dollar for Treasury Triffin dilemma that you mentioned. I think investors are going to have to take all of these things into account uh moving forward.

One other thing that I noticed from from Davos which was fascinating was crypto people, okay, like from the industry the first time ever, maybe they were there in pockets before, but first time ever they had a seat at the World Economic Forum. They were a force crypto people were a force at Davos this year with with the big boys. So, uh, Jeremy was there. We had, um, CZ was actually there, which is like so striking to me because like 18 months ago, CZ was in a US prison. Yeah. Right. And now he's at Davos. He got pardoned. Uh, but this was a really interesting exchange between Brian Armstrong and a French central banker. I'm just going to play this.

I trust more independent central banks with a democratic mandate than private issuers of Bitcoin which have a very useful role.

But Bitcoin is a decentralized protocol. There's actually no issuer of it. So that's that's in the sense that central banks have independence. Bitcoin is even more independent. There's no country or company or individual who controls it in the world. And so anyway, I I think it's a healthy competition because because if people can decide which one they trust more and I think it's actually the greatest accountability mechanism on deficit spending.

I love that. I love that exchange. There is now push back at the World Economic Forum on central bankers just getting like the ability to say whatever they'd like. There's now push back from people in crypto who are like, "Well, you guys don't run the world." I I think why the crypto industry, this clip just rocketed around the crypto industry on on Twitter these days, and I think why why everyone appreciated it was that, you know, Brian isn't being a zealot. He's not being like ridiculous. He's not being a crypto bro. He's just saying, you know, you are correct, Mr. banker in that Bitcoin might just be irrelevant so long as all you central bankers are responsible with your monetary policy. And he didn't even have to say the between the lines of like no one thinks bankers central bankers are responsible with their monetary policy. No one thinks that. No one thinks that. That's great. And you know who also sort of had crypto's back as well is this guy, Mr. Frink. Mr. Larry Frink. This was his comment on tokenization. That's our guy. He's very bullish. Let me play him.

I think the movement towards uh tokenization decimalization is is necessary. It's ironic that we see two emerging countries leading the world in decimaliz and and in in the uh to tokenization and digitization of their currency. That's Brazil and India. I think we need to move very rapidly uh to doing that. We would be reducing fees. We would do more democratization by reducing more fees if we had all investments on a tokenized platform that could move from a tokenized money market fund to equities and bonds and back and forth. We have one common blockchain. We will we could reduce corruption. So, I would argue um that yes, we have more dependencies on maybe one blockchain, which we could all talk about, but that being said, the activities are probably processed and more secure than ever.

So, there he is. Stick it up for tokenization. Now, there were a lot of Ethereum people who picked up on that one single blockchain. That's what P perked up in my brain. I was like, it wouldn't be nice if you did have dependencies on one single blockchain to have a blockchain that hasn't gone down in over 10 years. What blockchain is he talking about? Or should we take him like more figuratively on that? Was he just saying the blockchain space or was he talking about No, he when you say dependencies on one single blockchain, you're no longer talking about blockchain the idea or blockchain the technology. You're talking about the blockchain that could actually invoke that sort of question.

I think so too. That's how I want to interpret Larry. Think. Um, can we talk about decimalization, please? I've never heard that word before. I love it. No, he had to translate that. We'll uh we'll do an entire episode on decimalization if we can try to understand it.

One last news from Davos, of course, is Trump mentioned that he was really close to picking the next Fed chair. And the person that is rising in the ranks, 45% of poly market is a guy by the name of Kevin Walsh. Evan W. You don't have to be Kevin Hasset but now being replaced by Kevin Worsh. So either way Kevin's going to win this week. Yeah, Kevin's Ke Kevin Hasset is down to 6% though, David. So like Kevin Worsh has really surpassed him. The big question that every listener has is like what's his status on crypto? What does he think about crypto? Who is this guy? He hasn't said too much. He's he's like kind of a fan of stable coins a little bit. He said that crypto is not really money. But something interesting. All right. He was an investor in the algorithmic stablecoin ba basis. Do you remember that?

I do remember that. You know what I why I remember that because I remember that being the main inspiration for doan's pre-ter experiment. This is a fun fact that that maybe maybe listeners don't know about. Before Duan did teraluna, he did another algorithmic stable coin experiment. Not basis though. Not basis. It I think it did start with a B. Um, it was a it was a derivative. It was a crappier derivative of the It was a crappier derivative and it's kind of where he got the information to be inspired to do Teral Luna. Yeah. So, I wonder what uh Warsh thinks about that having been an investor in uh Algus. I don't I don't think he thinks about that. Also, Bitwise, he also did invest in Bitwise. So, he investor in Bitwise. That's renamed things. Yeah, that's a that's a that's an acceptable portfolio.

So much more to talk about. The New York Stock Exchange announcing their tokenization platform. Is that good for us? Did our dreams come true or is this uh going to co-op DeFi? Also, onchain social thrown in the towel, but Vitalic wants to double down. Vitalic's like, "Let's do it again." All this and more, but before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

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The New York Stock Exchange is launching a tokenization platform from their press release saying the New York Stock Exchange announced its development of a platform for trading and onchain settlement of tokenized securities for it which it will seek regulatory approval. The new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences including 24/7 operations, instant settlement, orders sized in dollar amounts. I think that means as opposed to like share amounts, you could just say I want,00 fractional stocks. Yeah. and also stable coinbased funding. Pretty cool. Design. This design combines the NYC's matching engine, which is like their technology, their IP basically, with blockchainbased post trade systems, including the capability for multiple chains for settlement and custody. Interesting. I think that could only mean public blockchains that have to be smart contracts.

It's got to be all of this is on is it going to be on public blockchains, you think?

We don't know yet. Yeah, I what I'm seeing is it is applying its its proprietary matching engine to uh ingest tokenized things, tokenized assets from public blockchains and I think you like deposit it with the NYSE and then you can trade those things on using their their matching engine. Um the platform will power a new NY venue that supports trading of tokenized shares fungeable with traditionally issued securities as well as tokens natively issued as digital securities. Tokenized shareholders will participate in traditional shareholder dividends and governance rights. The venue is designed to align with established principles for market structure and via with distribution via nondiscriminatory access to all qualified broker dealers. So, it's kind of a a meld of just like, hey, the trad world can now interoperate with the blockchain world via this brand new trading venue. I think it's it's pretty interesting, right? And just some context, the New York Stock Exchange over 40 trillion in assets. That's the biggest stock exchange ever. Oh, yeah. And it's like I mean, compare that NASDAQ is like a second place, a healthy second place, but still not close, right? Compare that to say Ethereum assets uh under management if you will or TVL right Ethereum it's about 90x Ethereum okay so it's like really big um also what one question is sort of what's different versus this than uh something the NASDAQ so the NASDAQ we talked about this on the rollup uh um which is another major exchange they were talking about tokenization what's different here is this is uh Simon Taylor maybe I'll comment everyone else is building infrastructure to tokenize existing assets like remember the news of the DTCC they tokenized existing custody securities state street news they were tokenizing existing money market funds and ETFs and that the the NASDAQ too they were tokenizing um trading alongside of like traditional for existing tokenization but the New York Stock Exchange and what they're announcing they're building a new way to bring equities on chain and also a venue to trade them okay so they're doing a whole separate blockchain thing that is instant settlement 24/7 fractionalized equities. It's a bit it's a it's a bigger step than anything that's been announced by the NASDAQ or the DTCC. It's bigger in scope and it's kind of cool. I mean a big question though is um does this kill DeFi?

I thought that was what we were doing. Yeah. This feels like very similar to like Tempo where it's like, hey, uh, fantastic blockchain technology and tokenization technology you guys have over there. It would