The Lads Return for the BTC ATH!

This episode reunites the Lads live, exploring Bitcoin's "lendiness" through an innovative "event space" time theory, the resurgence of market speculation, and the strategic implications of new crypto metas like Launchcoin and the Hyperliquid phenomenon for investors.

Reunion and Thicki's Foray into Blogging

• The episode marks a special occasion with all four hosts—Jordy, Taiiki, Justin, and Thicki—recording together live in New York for the first time, a novel experience for the group.
• Thicki has recently started a blog, publishing his thoughts regularly. He finds writing helps to "crystallize some thoughts I've had for a while," suggesting it's a way to externally store and refine his ideas.
  • Jordy probes if this intellectual exercise is making Thicki "smarter," to which Thicki humorously deflects.

Thicki's "Event Space" Theory: Bitcoin vs. Gold

• Jordy highlights Thicki's blog post on "event space," a concept familiar in High-Frequency Trading (HFT) where models can be based on events rather than fixed time intervals.
  • Event Space Time: A concept where time is measured by the number of significant events or the collective human experience interacting with an asset, rather than chronological duration.
• Thicki applies this to Bitcoin versus gold, arguing that despite Bitcoin's 17-year existence compared to gold's millennia, Bitcoin has experienced approximately 10% of the "human consciousness" or "life years" that gold has.
  • Thicki explains, "If you sort of compress the amount of time it's been alive into event-based time, it's actually closer to 10% of all human consciousness has experienced Bitcoin versus gold."
  • This 10% ratio coincidentally mirrors the current market cap ratio between Bitcoin and gold.
• He calculates that humanity has experienced roughly 130 billion "life years" with Bitcoin (average 7 billion people * 17 years), compared to 1.3 trillion "life years" with gold since around 700 BCE.
• Strategic Implication: This "event-based" or "Lindy" perspective suggests Bitcoin's perceived value and adoption are growing rapidly relative to its chronological age. Investors might use this framework to gauge Bitcoin's maturation as a store of value, noting its "lendiness" is projected to increase by roughly 5.5% per year by this metric.
  • Lindy Effect: A theory suggesting that the longer a non-perishable item like a technology or idea has existed, the longer its future life expectancy.

Market Catch-up and Current Positions

• Justin reflects on the market since their last podcast a month prior, noting the community sentiment that they "stopped at the absolute low," which proved accurate.
• He mentions being less deep in crypto recently but has been diving into new "metas" like Launchcoin (a platform or token facilitating new token launches).
• Justin expresses comfort with Ethereum (ETH) at $2500, viewing it as "fair value." He describes his ETH holdings as a result of profits from "shitcoins" being rolled into ETH over the last five years.
• Jordy notes the "wealth effect" from Bitcoin's rise, with some capital spilling into more speculative assets, including "questionable animal coins."

Navigating New Metas and Content Creation

• Justin discusses his efforts to build a framework for identifying "the new thing," inspired by an interview Thicki did with Jez. This framework seemingly helped him with Launchcoin.
• Taiiki shares his belief in a "mid-curve left curve barbell of DeFi and Fartcoin," still holding Maker and viewing Fartcoin as a promising memecoin.
  • DeFi (Decentralized Finance): Financial applications built on blockchain technology that operate without traditional intermediaries.
  • Memecoin: A cryptocurrency that originates from an internet meme or has some other humorous characteristic, often highly speculative.
• Taiiki admits to feeling "burnt out" after "roundtriping Fartcoin" and is now taking a step back, focusing on content strategy with a career coach. He reflects on the emotional toll of being a public bull, stating, "if your followers look to you to be bullish, then I feel like I have to be bullish."
• Actionable Insight for Researchers/Influencers: Taiiki's experience highlights the psychological pressures of public market commentary and the importance of detaching personal conviction from audience expectation for sustainable content creation.

The Launchpad Meta and Pump Fun

• Jordy observes the current battle in the "trenches" revolving around Pump Fun (a platform for easily launching new tokens, particularly memecoins).
• He notes the allure of launchpad platforms: while individual tokens launched may be "vaporware," the platform itself (like an exchange for these tokens) can accrue significant value.
  • Vaporware: Software or hardware that is announced to the general public but is never actually manufactured or officially canceled.
• Jordy suggests that for these launchpads, "it can be a worthwhile investment to like try to support a lot of these launches potentially like from a game theory standpoint just, you know, try to try to have some winners and and make people believe that, you know, you should be the one deserving of the... $700 million that Pump Fun has has made."
• Justin clarifies Launchcoin is a token launcher with a narrative of launching "real projects," though successful apps are yet to emerge. Some Web2 founders have used it to launch tokens and fund projects via trading fees.
• Taiiki mentions a different project that incentivized users to launch a shitcoin to claim an airdrop. He launched a coin named "ETH" to deter buyers, and his airdrop is now worth significantly less.

Alt Season Skepticism and Hyperliquid

• Jordy reiterates his skepticism about a traditional "alt season," believing current Bitcoin holders are less crypto-native and less likely to rotate gains into smaller altcoins.
• Justin agrees there's a "hot ball of capital" seeking speculation but not necessarily in traditional VC-backed infra tokens. He sees Hyperliquid (a decentralized perpetuals exchange) as the "gold standard of a cash flow accruing asset" due to substantial buybacks, putting pressure on other tokens to compete.
  • Hyperliquid (Hype): A decentralized order book perpetual futures exchange. Its native token is Hype.
• Jordy notes Hyperliquid's token (Hype) is trading around $26, with a significant Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), and its revenue is impressive.
• Taiiki humorously suggests Jeff, Hyperliquid's founder, won't get the "exit pump" from other podcasts like he would from "Steady Lads."
• Justin admits feeling like he "missed Hyperliquid" and finds it hard to buy at current prices, citing the procyclical selling pressure from liquidated holders and the large number of airdrop recipients who might provide exit liquidity.
• Strategic Consideration: The success of platforms like Hyperliquid, with strong revenue and token buybacks, sets a new benchmark for token utility and value accrual, which investors should use to evaluate other projects.

The Hyperliquid Whale: James Wynn

• Jordy brings up a prominent trader on Hyperliquid, "James Wynn," known for publicly displaying massive (nine-figure) positions, reminiscent of figures like Alex Wice from FTX days.
• Wynn's simultaneous shilling of a memecoin ("Moon Pig") while managing huge positions raises questions.
• Thicki theorizes Wynn might be shilling memecoins to "recoup some extra cost of leaking that signal to the market," as publicizing large positions invites front-running.
• The discussion touches on Wynn's large Bitcoin long position (average entry around $105k), currently in profit, and the high funding fees he incurs. Jordy questions the professionalism of such public displays.
• Taiiki notes the irony: "didn't we talk about how whales would never trade on Hyperliquid because like why would anyone want to reveal their position but yeah I guess we have some you know apes out there that's doing it."
• Insight: The phenomenon of public, large-scale trading on platforms like Hyperliquid creates a "public theater," which can be a powerful marketing tool for the platform but introduces complex dynamics and risks for the traders involved.

Attention Economy and Crypto's Place

• Jordy references a (draft) chart Thicki shared, estimating the "capture rate" of various "attention sinks" like OnlyFans, crypto, gambling, and stock speculation.
• Thicki clarifies these are "very rough numbers" from ChatGPT, aiming to quantify how much industries extract per hour of attention.
• A striking point is the potential size of sports betting and casino gaming, possibly rivaling traditional finance in terms of sums extracted from speculation. Thicki estimates these "attention industries" could be 5-10% of US GDP.
• Jordy observes the disparity: "the amount of money being spent on longevity and disease... is like a few billion and then sports betting 95 billion."
• The group discusses whether crypto trading, despite its speculative nature, might offer a "higher EV (Expected Value)" for the average person than traditional sports betting, which has more defined negative-sum characteristics.
• Consideration for Researchers: The increasing financialization of attention and the growth of speculative markets (including crypto) represent a significant societal trend. Understanding the economic and psychological drivers is crucial.

The Market Making Game

• Jordy introduces a "market making game" Thicki wrote about, popular in some trading firms, which they decide to play.
• Game Rules (as explained by Thicki):
  1. A broad, hard-to-calculate question is posed.
  2. Players bid to offer the tightest confidence interval (spread) for the answer.
  3. The player with the tightest bid becomes the market maker, quoting a buy (low) and sell (high) price based on their spread.
  4. Other players must trade against the market maker (buy from their high or sell to their low).
  5. The actual answer is revealed (e.g., via ChatGPT), and scores are settled.
• They play a round with the question: "What is the number of tokens that exist on Binance Smart Chain?"
• After competitive bidding on the spread width, Jordy wins the right to make the market with a 4 million token width, quoting 11 million (bid) to 15 million (ask).
• Justin and Taiiki sell to Jordy (betting it's below 11 million), while Thicki buys from Jordy (betting it's above 15 million).
• ChatGPT estimates 7.2 million tokens. BSC Scan data suggests 4.77 million. They use ChatGPT's 7.2 million as the oracle.
• Outcome: Jordy makes a small profit, Justin and Taiiki profit more significantly, and Thicki loses.
• Actionable Insight: This game is a practical tool for honing estimation, risk assessment, and market-making intuition, relevant for traders and analysts.

Market Maker Scrutiny and Fair Pricing

• Justin transitions to the topic of market makers (MMs) facing scrutiny, particularly regarding how launch prices are set.
• Jordy addresses a specific complaint against Seleni (his firm) and Wintermute regarding the Kaido token auction, where they were criticized for setting a $2 price while some bids were at $7. Jordy implies the on-chain price was closer to $2, making the criticism unfounded.
• He acknowledges the "crime season meta" where anonymous accounts expose alleged wrongdoings, which can be good for transparency but also lead to spreading unverified rumors.
• Jordy views being targeted as a sign of visibility, similar to Wintermute's past experiences.
• Justin notes the shifting blame for poor altcoin performance: from VCs to project teams, and now to market makers.
• Strategic Consideration: The debate around market maker practices and price discovery for new tokens is ongoing. Investors should be aware of these dynamics and the potential for information asymmetry.

Solutions to Market Manipulation and "Multipolar Traps"

• Justin asks if there's a solution to issues people are upset about with MM deals, like disclosure or self-policing.
• Jordy believes the underlying behavior of market participants (e.g., buying tokens simply due to visibility) enables manipulation. He suggests "the underlying people get smarter eventually" and that major exchanges stepping in (like Binance has started to) are key.
• He dismisses simple disclosure of MM deals as ineffective, as deals could be done non-transparently with other entities.
• Justin proposes that "real PE ratios" (Price-to-Earnings ratios) for tokens, indicating genuine value accrual, could be a natural solution, making founder/insider selling less contentious, similar to how Tim Cook selling Apple stock isn't a major concern for investors.
• Thicki introduces the concept of a "multipolar trap" or "the jaws of Moloch" from Scott Alexander's writings: situations where individual agents are incentivized to defect, leading to a suboptimal stable equilibrium. He sees crypto as a "sandbox that displays that behavior."
  • Multipolar Trap: A situation in game theory where multiple actors, acting in their own rational self-interest, create an outcome that is detrimental to all or to the collective good.
• Thicki views Justin's PE ratio solution as a "typical techno optimist techno capital response," where new tech and innovation create a surplus of value that lifts all boats, regardless of incentives.
• Insight for Investors: The path to fairer markets may involve a combination of investor education, exchange-level enforcement, and projects focusing on fundamental value accrual rather than purely memetic or speculative drivers.

Marketing, Memetics, and XRP

• Jordy mentions Alex Good's (a guest from a previous show) analysis of crypto having a "massive meme premium," where value is largely memetic.
• He discusses how marketing, even if for "vaporware" tokens, can be effective if it influences LLMs (Large Language Models) that normies might use for investment decisions, citing XRP's enduring appeal and HBAR.
  • LLM (Large Language Model): An AI model trained on vast amounts of text data to understand, generate, and manipulate human language, like ChatGPT.
• Alex Good's concept of "hallucination yield" is mentioned: if an LLM is fed enough bullish (even if misleading) information about a project like XRP, it might present it as a quality project.
• Actionable Insight: Crypto AI researchers should be aware of how LLMs can be influenced by marketing narratives and the potential for "hallucination yield" to affect perceived project legitimacy, especially among less sophisticated investors relying on AI for information.

New Launches and Ethereum's Outlook

• Jordy notes a lack of "massive launches" left in the current cycle, with Monad being a significant one. Pump Fun is another potential big launch. Current market conditions are seen as "not bad" for launches, with valuations typically in the nine-figure range.
• The conversation shifts to Ethereum, which recently saw a "God candle." Jordy humorously attributes it to Thicki getting liquidated (Thicki denies being bearish).
• Taiiki recalls a 2020 podcast where Su Zhu, Hasu, and Light Crypto were bearish on ETH, predicting ETH/BTC would decline—a sentiment similar to today, just before ETH's parabolic run. However, Taiiki himself is currently skeptical of ETH outperforming, suggesting the market gives more credence to recent events, potentially favoring Solana due to its recent meta dominance.
• Future Metas & Ethereum's Role:
  • AI + Crypto: Jordy sees this as a major upcoming meta. Ethereum's neutrality could be an advantage. Worldcoin's "World Chain" is mentioned as being on Ethereum.
  • Tokenized Equities: Robinhood's acquisition of an L2 company and interest from players like BlackRock and Solana point to this trend. Ethereum's neutrality is again cited as a potential advantage for institutional adoption.
• Justin believes it makes sense for entities like Robinhood or BlackRock to run their own L2s for tokenized assets, potentially spawning a narrative for L2s.
  • L2 (Layer 2): A secondary framework or protocol built on top of an existing blockchain (Layer 1, like Ethereum) to improve scalability and efficiency.
• The bear case for ETH is its $300 billion valuation, much of which might be attributed to "memetics and hope and belief and dreams."
• Strategic Consideration: Investors should monitor developments in AI integration with crypto and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) like equities, as these could be major drivers for specific platforms. Ethereum's "neutrality" is a key narrative to watch in this context.

Pasta of the Month

• Taiiki's Pasta: ETH co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke (previously unknown to the hosts) reportedly sent a quarter-billion dollars worth of ETH to Kraken and retweeted the Arkham alert about it with "Hell yeah, there." This sparks comments about insiders always having ETH to sell.
• Justin's Pasta: A Twitter exchange where @Flood (Hyperliquid bull) bets Hype will flip Solana by end of 2026. @JMOVcrypto offers a $10 million bet against it. Flood then asks for 30-to-1 odds for a "few million" bet, which Justin finds absurdly demanding.
• Jordy's Pasta: A quote from @Gainzy, highlighted by @LeonidasNFT: "If you make money as a degenerate at your peak, you will still be a degenerate. You can't just eliminate the degenerate out of your DNA." This underscores the difficulty of changing behaviors that were once rewarded, even if they become detrimental.
  • Jordy emphasizes the importance of not being "short-term greedy" and playing a longer game for sustainable success and reputation in crypto. Taiiki adds that ethical behavior over time leads to better deal flow and connections.

This episode highlights a crypto market driven by narrative, speculation, and the continuous emergence of new platforms, demanding vigilance from investors. Key takeaways include the need to critically assess novel valuation frameworks like "event-based time," monitor the sustainability of high-yield platforms, and understand the evolving dynamics of market making and token launches.