Ventura Labs
June 18, 2025

subnet tokens on bittenor are the next ethereum ico boom

This podcast unpacks the compelling investment thesis behind BitTensor subnet tokens, arguing they mirror the early, explosive potential of Ethereum ICOs. The speaker highlights a significant valuation arbitrage opportunity in the burgeoning AI-meets-crypto space.

The AI Startup Valuation Discrepancy

  • "So if you look at what these subnets are doing, not all of them, but a good chunk of them, they are doing exactly what venture-backed AI startups are doing that are worth billions in many cases."
  • "So you know, you have like 10 million here and, you know, 5 billion over here and the two entities are doing basically the same thing."
  • Many BitTensor subnets perform tasks functionally identical to AI startups backed by venture capital, yet their valuations are worlds apart.
  • The speaker points to a stark contrast: a subnet might be valued at $10 million while a traditional AI company doing similar work could be valued at $5 billion.
  • The BitTensor ecosystem itself has shown steady growth, with its total value climbing from zero to $160 million (dollar terms at recording), underscoring increasing traction.

Navigating Volatility: Lessons from Ethereum

  • "Ethereum was once 12 bucks and it crashed down to two bucks. And nobody can time the market."
  • "But if you bought at two bucks or 12 bucks and then Ethereum became worth $4,500, do you really give a [damn] if you bought it at 12 or two? No."
  • Subnet tokens are expected to exhibit significant price volatility, much like Ethereum in its nascent stages, which saw drops from $12 to $2.
  • The speaker emphasizes that timing the market perfectly is impossible. Short-term price swings are unpredictable.
  • The crucial insight is that for assets with massive long-term potential, like Ethereum's rise to $4,500, the initial entry price difference (e.g., $2 vs. $12) becomes negligible in retrospect.

The "Hard to Get In" Alpha

  • "I feel like we're in that moment with subnet tokens where we'll wish we could get in a time machine and go back to this moment where all these absurdly low market caps are available for the taking."
  • "And the reason why they're so absurdly low is because the BitTensor universe is hard to get into..."
  • The current "absurdly low" market capitalizations of BitTensor subnet tokens represent a window of opportunity that may not last.
  • This undervaluation is largely attributed to the complexity and high barrier to entry associated with the BitTensor ecosystem.
  • This difficulty in access creates a temporary inefficiency, allowing early and determined investors to acquire assets at potentially discounted prices before broader market participation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The central argument is that BitTensor subnet tokens offer a ground-floor opportunity akin to investing in early Ethereum, with current inefficiencies creating significant upside. Investors should look past short-term volatility and focus on the fundamental value proposition and the current market's difficulty in accessing these assets.
  • Asymmetric Opportunity: BitTensor subnets provide exposure to AI innovation comparable to billion-dollar startups but at a fraction of their market caps.
  • Volatility is a Feature, Not a Bug: Expect significant price swings, reminiscent of early crypto. The long-term potential can dwarf initial entry points.
  • The Access Arbitrage: The current complexity of the BitTensor ecosystem creates an "early bird" advantage for those who can navigate it, potentially leading to outsized returns.

Podcast Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUCMi_trijU

This episode uncovers the compelling investment thesis for subnet tokens within the Bittensor ecosystem, arguing they represent an undervalued opportunity akin to early-stage Ethereum.

The Untapped Potential of Bittensor Subnet Tokens

  • Subnet tokens are digital assets associated with specific decentralized AI projects, or "subnets," operating within the Bittensor network. Bittensor itself is a decentralized protocol designed to incentivize the creation and operation of diverse AI services.
  • The total market capitalization for these subnet tokens has surged from zero to $160 million, demonstrating a steady and consistent upward trajectory in dollar terms.
  • The speaker emphasizes a stark valuation disparity: many Bittensor subnets are performing tasks comparable to venture-backed AI startups valued in the billions, while the subnets themselves have market caps in the mere millions (e.g., $10 million for a subnet versus $5 billion for a comparable centralized AI startup).
  • This discrepancy leads the speaker to assert, "we're like insane if we're not buying subnet tokens."

Historical Parallels with Ethereum and Market Timing

  • The argument addresses concerns about potential price crashes, citing Ethereum's own volatility where it once dropped from $12 to $2.
  • The core message is that for long-term investors who saw Ethereum eventually reach $4,500, the initial entry point (whether $2 or $12) became far less critical than the act of investing early.
  • The speaker suggests that attempting to perfectly time the market for subnet tokens is futile. "Nobody can time the market. So you don't know like when it's going to go up or when it's going to go down real fast, right?"
  • This perspective frames the current low market caps of subnet tokens as a fleeting moment, one that future investors might wish they could revisit.

Accessibility as a Barrier and Underlying Reason for Undervaluation

  • This barrier to entry, mentioned at the start of the discussion, inadvertently creates an opportunity for those willing to overcome it.
  • The implication for investors and researchers is that the current undervaluation is not due to a lack of fundamental value or technological promise, but rather due to market inefficiencies and accessibility challenges.

Strategic Conclusion: A Ground-Floor Opportunity in Decentralized AI

  • The speaker compellingly argues that Bittensor subnet tokens offer a rare, early-stage investment opportunity in projects with substantial real-world AI utility. Crypto AI investors and researchers should investigate these tokens, understanding that current accessibility hurdles may be suppressing valuations, presenting a window for potentially significant returns.

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