This episode reveals a market in transition, where capital is aggressively rotating from established assets like Ethereum and Solana into the high-stakes arena of new perpetual DEX launches, signaling a critical window for profit-taking before a potential 2025 downturn.
Farming the Perp DEX Meta
- The conversation begins with Tiki, who details his experience farming the Poly Market airdrop. Poly Market is a decentralized platform for prediction markets, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. Tiki notes the lack of content competition in this niche, giving him an edge.
- He contrasts this with his DeFi farming activities, highlighting his bullish stance on the upcoming airdrops for USDA and Lighter, a new perpetual DEX. This sets the stage for the episode's core theme: the intense focus on new launches in the perpetual DEX space, including Lighter, Aster, and Justin Sun's own project.
The Lighter Airdrop Speculation
- Justin expresses his "extraordinarily bullish" sentiment on Lighter, revealing he has been actively buying Lighter points in over-the-counter (OTC) deals.
- He is purchasing points at an implied $2.5 billion Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), a metric representing a project's total value if all its tokens were in circulation.
- Justin's valuation is based on the "vibes" and hope that the Lighter airdrop will be 25-30% of the total supply, similar to the recent Hyperliquid airdrop.
- He argues that traders should be using Lighter due to its zero-fee structure and the opportunity to earn airdrop rewards. Justin states, "I tell people now if you're going to trade, you should trade on Lighter because you're getting paid to do so."
Hyperliquid's Competitive Response
- The speakers discuss how Hyperliquid, a competing perpetual DEX, appears to be feeling pressure from Lighter's momentum.
- Hyperliquid has signaled a new season of rewards and recently launched customized NFT drops for its users, including a "puff dragon cat" for the Seleni wallet, which Jordy notes was a clever way to encourage holding.
- This highlights a key trend for investors: established platforms are using creative incentives and community engagement tactics to retain users as new, high-potential competitors emerge.
Q4 Market Outlook: The "Guaranteed October Pump"
- Justin introduces his thesis for Q4, calling it "GOP season" or the "Guaranteed October Pump." He anticipates a strong market rally through the end of the year but plans to be "mostly out by January," reflecting a belief in crypto's cyclical nature.
- He expresses a strong desire to avoid another major drawdown, stating, "I refuse to be a community member of Ethereum again. I can't round trip one more time. I'm done."
- This strategy is based on historical patterns where markets rally into year-end before facing a potential downturn in Q1, a pattern he is unwilling to bet against.
Bitcoin vs. Gold and Whale Selling Pressure
- The discussion shifts to macro analysis, noting that gold is up nearly 50% on the year while Bitcoin is down 20% relative to it. Jordy finds this surprising given the significant institutional buy pressure from ETFs.
- He attributes Bitcoin's underperformance to "ancient Chinese whales," potentially miners or OGs, who have been selling billions of dollars worth of BTC.
- Jordy mentions a specific instance where a Chinese whale "sold a couple billion over Monday to Friday... and just like dipped the market to sub 110."
- The panel agrees that without this immense selling pressure, Bitcoin would likely be trading much higher, and its current price relative to gold presents a logical catch-up trade opportunity.
ETH and Solana: Fading Narratives and Capital Rotation
- The conversation turns to Ethereum and Solana, with the speakers expressing a bearish-to-neutral outlook. Justin reveals he has sold 15% of his ETH and aims to sell 100% by year-end.
- Jordy points out that while the ETH/BTC ratio is at the same level as a year ago, the "vibe is completely different," with less fear in the market.
- Tiki analyzes the SOL/ETH chart, noting that Solana is trading lower against ETH than when Kyle Samani of Multicoin Capital famously made his "Solana will flip ETH" speech.
- Strategic Implication: The speakers argue that capital is rotating away from established Layer 1s like ETH and SOL. Investors are selling these "old coins" to speculate on new, high-volatility launches, creating downward pressure on legacy assets.
The Return of Low-Float, High-FDV Launches
- The panel observes a resurgence of the "low-float, high-FDV" token launch model. This strategy involves releasing only a small percentage of the total token supply at launch, creating artificial scarcity while maintaining a high overall valuation.
- While retail interest in new launches is higher than ever, investors are more aware of the risks. They are participating for short-term volatility rather than long-term holding, planning to exit before major token unlocks.
- Jordy warns that as these projects approach their investor and team unlock schedules in the coming months, it could trigger a "blood bath."
The Specter of Insider Unlocks
- The conversation deepens with a focus on the risk of insider token unlocks, using Hyperliquid as a prime example. Justin notes that $400-$500 million of insider unlocks are scheduled to hit the market in the coming months.
- Jordy explains the difficulty this creates for long-term investors. While the small, tight-knit Hyperliquid team is unlikely to "insta-dump," the life-changing sums involved mean significant, sustained sell pressure is inevitable.
- This highlights a critical risk factor for investors in new projects: even fundamentally strong tokens can struggle to maintain price momentum against a constant stream of insider selling.
The DAT Meta: An Overheated Trade
- The panel analyzes the DAT (Discounted Asset Token) meta, where tokens representing claims on other assets trade at a discount to their net asset value. Jordy declares the meta is "almost over."
- He notes that even for successful DATs, the underlying equity is not performing well, a classic sign of a dying trend.
- Dim adds that most funds that allocated to DATs are near break-even, as the few winners have been offset by many "complete fumbles."
- The high fees charged by lawyers and bankers in these structures drain significant value, making it a difficult game for investors to win.
Memecoin Thesis 2.0: Community and Politics
- The discussion references Murad Mahmudov's influential speech from the previous year, which framed all altcoins as memecoins. Justin mentions a recent talk by Alex Good, who argued that Murad was correct but that the nature of memecoins is evolving.
- Good's thesis is that the next wave of successful tokens will combine memetics with a strong social or political component, citing examples like Ripple (XRP) and Worldcoin (WLD).
- This suggests a shift from pure memes to tokens backed by large, organized communities with shared political or social interests.
This episode underscores a critical shift in market dynamics, where speculative capital is flowing from established L1s to new, high-risk perpetual DEXs. For investors and researchers, the key takeaway is the urgency of active portfolio management and strategic profit-taking ahead of a potential 2025 market correction.
