Predictions for 2026

I am so excited for this next year and next 5 to 10 in crypto. I think it's the best time to be building or even investing in crypto. And yeah, I just could not be more excited. And I genuinely mean that from the bottom of my heart. Quick shout out to today's sponsor, Katana. We'll hear more about Katana's 1 billion CAT campaign later today, but for now, let's get into the episode. Hey everyone, quick disclaimer before we get into today's episode. Nothing said on bell curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Our guests and I may hold positions in the companies, funds or projects discussed.

All right, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Bell Curve. First of all, happy new year to everyone and happy new year to my lovely co-hosts Miles and Z. How you guys doing?

Doing great. Happy New Year to you, too.

Happy new year everyone. All right. Well rested, ready to go.

Yeah. By that you mean hung over.

Yeah. I hope everyone had a good end to 2025. It was a really interesting year. And we're going to use this episode as a predictions episode for 2026. And maybe just for folks who missed part one of this, this is kind of a two-parter. So we did a recap of 2025. We had some just an overall, you know, kind of explanation for the sentiment of last year. We had some categories, biggest winners, losers, you know, biggest comeback story, that type of thing. So, if you haven't listened to that, I would definitely recommend folks go back and listen to that episode. We're going to be talking all about the future this year. So we're going to be talking about 2026. But before we get there, we started off the wrap-up for 2026 talking about what were the big themes of 2025 and how did we feel about this year overall. And I thought before we get into specific predictions and kind of the different categories that we have of predictions for 2026, we could start with an overview of where we think 2026 is going. And I can maybe start here.

And I think this is a unique year going in for this is a really unique start to the year because generally there actually a lot fewer predictions than I've almost ever seen in crypto. But there also seems to be much less energy frankly that I've seen on crypto Twitter in a long time. But I do think what's unique is there's a general perception that there's a line in the sand. Crypto in the next 10 years is going to be very different from the past 10 years. And a lot of the predictions that I've noticed on a very very similar theme and for the first time generally I think predictions go in a bunch of different directions but I but I agree with most of the predictions that I've been seeing and I think the general theme around most of 2026 predictions and where people think the industry is going to be going is that we are finally in the post imagination a maturation scale up of crypto as an industry.

And what I mean by that is I think there were people got so so excited by the technology of crypto that they did you know kind of that they've gone through that massive bubble of expectations where everything is possible and there's going to be decentralized social media and it's going to touch every aspect of our lives and I think now we've had 10 years of data points and what the industry has consolidated around primarily I'd be curious you guys might disagree with me on this but I think the early use case and traction for blockchains is money and financial and I think we're going to see a scale of both of those things over the next 5 to 10 years. I also think that one of the themes that I very much agree with is I think that we've moved from the driving force and animus of crypto as an industry being speculative. So a new hot thing comes in, hot money chases it, a massive speculation or speculative premium inflates. I I think we're moving from that as the driving force into real businesses, scaled technology and valuation methodologies that more closely mimic equities.

And so I think we have to go through a little bit of a transition period and the industry generally understands that. So there's almost the way that I would think about it from the audience perspective is that there's going to be a gap where you had a bunch of stuff where there wasn't real value, but there was a ton of excitement, a ton of speculative capital driving up and creating very very high multiples and I think a lot of those are going to need to rerate towards something that's more fundamentally driven and so there might be a gap and I I see a lot of confusion con this year where very good projects are objectively doing well on all of the metrics that matter but their token price is continuing to fall and I think it's that gap where the speculative premium is going out and we're resetting towards something that's more fundamental and sustainable And you know, I think there's a lot more to say, but that's my general perception for 2026 going into the next year. Curious what you guys agree on or disagree on there.

Yeah, I mean I couldn't agree more in terms of like I guess how the market is going to value these projects. It's a much higher bar these days of proving out, you know, that you're actually addressing something with demand, right? And we've seen too many times in the past of like especially on the emperor side where yeah there was you know I guess valuation was centered around what this like could enable or design spaces that don't exist yet but could in the future and now to go to market like you need to come to market with proven out demand right and for L1's that means like being more selective about the use cases you go after right so that you can like you know instead of going a inch deep mile wide you need to come, you know, to the scene like basically at launch with proven out demand for at least one or two like specific use cases. So, yeah, I agree with that, but Z, curious to hear your thoughts.

Yeah, I think, uh, in general, I agree with the framing, Mike. 2025 I think what people were expecting it to be a sort of bullish year especially with Trump in and I think it didn't necessarily meet everyone's expectations. I do think, you know, funnily enough, I've been thinking a bit about this prediction market or prediction episode and, you know, where it's going in 2026. And if I rewind to where I was 12 months ago, I noticed in 2024, like I was feeling a bit more bearish, I think, than the rest of the sort of crypto ecosystem cuz I could feel the sort of like private market capital in particular that was drying up. And I felt it again in 2025. Of course, a lot less VC funds launched, a lot less projects raised money, etc. I have to admit just with like the sentiment and, you know, all the posts and, you know, returning to fundamentals and the value investing in crypto and all of that, I'm kind of getting a little bit bullish again cuz it just seems like we are now um, we're definitely towards the bottom of sentiment. The question for me is like how long is it going to last? If you subscribe to the sort of fouryear cycle, it could last maybe as long as maybe Septemberish this year before things start getting better. If you subscribe to the sort of like no more fouryear cycle thesis, which is also a potential option, I think that it might end up looking kind of similar to 2025. But I do think just with everything going on in macro regulations, maybe lower interest rates, etc., better crypto businesses, I think the free money days in crypto are over. Although I don't necessarily know that the token days in crypto are over and I do think that we're going to see bullish times again. I mean even today you look at the charts and it's up like kind of 5 10% across the board and you're kind of already thinking like or like it doesn't take very much to get things going again. So I think maybe this space is a little bit too bearish on potentially what 2026 holds where I do think that especially later on in the year things could get very very interesting.

I agree with that. Um, and I think the that speculative premium, if you just look at alt prices and market that that's already been deflating. And I think in general as a rule for predictions, people do a really bad job because they tend to just extrapolate the trends of the previous year. If you look at almost every list of predictions through that lens, it mostly matches up. So if something's been going like this, people continue to predict it going like that. And I I agree, Zave. I think that this is going to be I I'm more bullish than I've been in a while going into 2026. And I'll call one other theme out, too. I think you're going to start to hear the phrase generational companies quite a bit.

But I do think one other thing that I would call out is consolidation. I think that's going to happen in a number of categories and it'll be at least a theme of my predictions as well is I think the winners keep winning. And I think the way that I would call out something a little bit interesting that's happened in crypto VC and financing in general is that there's a little bit of an inversion of how risk gets priced. And what I mean by that in traditional VC is the the idea generally is you're taking on more risk by investing in an early stage product early stage project, right? So if you're investing in seed, only a certain percentage of those make it to series A, series B, series C. And so you have investors that take more risk by investing in seed stage. I think in crypto that's almost been reversed where because you get liquidity so fast and because you don't actually need to create a product that has product market fit or take a company public or get it acquired. um the perception and there's a lot of a lot of the VC apparatus has been set up to invest early flip a token and actually the perception is that there's more risk at later stage because we have so few examples of companies or projects driving you know continued outperformance in their token or creating real sustainable value and it's created this very weird imbalance of capital where you have a ton of early stage investors so many if you're raising an uh funds for an early stage product, you've got a lot of VCs kind of bending over backwards to give you money. But as you get later stage and more mature, that capital dries up. And I think that's going to reverse because what's happening in the industry is that there are these clear categories that are going to be valuable. The barrier to entry um and the difficulty of creating a winner in those categories is higher than it's ever been. And I think what you tend to see even in web 2 and things like that is that the winners keep winning, right? No one really displaced Netflix after it took off. Amazon, like you have these kind of category winners that are very, very difficult to displace. And I don't think that rule is broken in crypto. So, I think that that kind of fundamental law of tech is going to um you know, we're going to see it show up in crypto and I think uh you're going to see a little bit of a change in the capital structure.

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All right, let's get into some specific predictions for this year. So, we group these in terms of categories to organize it for for all of you listening. So got one category is ecosystem. So we're going to be talking about general predictions for Ethereum, Bitcoin, Salana, etc. Uh two is DeFi. The third is RWAS and stable coins. Fourth is prediction markets. And then the fifth is VC in general investment markets etc. And then I think we'll have maybe we can add a smaller sixmonth on there around AI. This is not an AI podcast, but I know we have some perspectives there at least where it intersects with crypto.

Okay. Let's start with ecosystems. And again, maybe I can kick us off here. And I would summarize. I want to maybe concentrate on the three big ecosystems and maybe talk about Hyperlid a little bit as a potential fourth. Although I probably wouldn't still include them in that category yet. I think so. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana. I think it's going to be a tough year for Bitcoin. From a sentiment perspective for a number of reasons. I think it's going to be a great year for Ethereum. I think there's a renaissance happening there. I think it's going to be a quiet year for Salana. But ultimately a good one. And I think it's going to be a really challenging year for Hyperlid. And I'll go through my rationale for each of those things. I think for Bitcoin, one there, Bitcoin's had a really, really good last couple of years. And so, I think there's just a natural consolidation that ends up happening after the run that Bitcoin's had from the bottom in 2022. But I also think a huge part of the driver of Bitcoin's outperformance has been Michael Sailor. And I think there's a lot of reason to believe that he's not going to have as much dry powder as he's had in the past. I think you also have Bitcoin's going to struggle to compete against gold as a very similar asset and profile. I think generally the kind of macro environment that we're heading into is one of less kind of runaway money printer gober burr growth and maybe one of you know more stagflationary like inflation is going to continue to be there but I think economic growth is going to be a little bit more challenging. I think gold does better than Bitcoin in those environments and I think the quantum stuff is going to be real from a fear perspective. You know I I think that generally that's going to get very very noisy going into this year. I think a lot of investors are going to question that and I think price turning over is going to, you know, make those fears louder. I think the devs are going to get their together by the end of the year, but I think it's going to take a while and they're going to drag their feet because the Bitcoin card devs always drag their feet. So, I think it'll be fine, but I do just think in general it's been such a good last three years for Bitcoin that we're due for a reversal in sentiment.

On the Ethereum perspective, I think it's the inverse of that. So, Ethereum is going through its kind of second big round of growing pains here. I'd call the first one, you know, 2019 into 2020 when it was unclear if, you know, genurpose smart contract platforms were going to be a thing and if anyone could compete against Bitcoin and I think they convincingly showed that that was going to be the case. There's I mean it has just been like a really tough last couple of years for Ethereum. But the way that I would frame this is I think no offense to anyone I think some of their mental models were not necessarily correct. I think they tried to fire a lot of their customers, tell them to move it up to the L2. But despite all of that, I think there's genuine product market fit around the massively exciting categories of RWA issuance and onchain finance. And I think that is going to be huge. And I think that's such a powerful um imagination capture. It kind of has all of the elements that you'd want almost as an early equity investor. There's this kind of huge but vague enough market like global finance happening here. I think that will you know you don't have to make a lot of leaps internally to understand the fees that that could acrue and I think there's just real product market fit there and it's happening almost independently of anything else and so I think it's just going to be a phenomenal year for Ethereum from a sentiment perspective maybe less convinced on price but I think this will be a real building year for Ethereum.

Salana I think it'll be generally quiet I think the challenge that they have is they're kind of the DEX chain in my opinion and I think they've made real strides with Fire Dancer and Alpenlow. And a lot of what you're seeing on the the microstructure side of DEX's like these prop AMMs, I think you're starting to see the foundations laid, but they've kind of lost onchain price discovery. Or that's being threatened by Hyperlid at the moment. They had it for memes, but the Bloom has fully come off the rose for memes. So, I think that Salana's tech is going to start to pay dividends. I believe in the neutrality of Salana as opposed to a more concentrated platform like Hyperlid. And so I think they're going to ultimately win back, but that's their challenge for this year is being the onchain venue or the the venue for onchain price discovery, which I I don't think they actually currently have. But I think it's I think they're going to win that and I think it's going to be a quiet building but very successful year for Salana.

At Hyperlquid I think this is going to be a really challenging year for them because there are two big questions, right? There's one, how much dominance can they have in this purp category, which is just a viciously competitive category. Even the history of this within crypto, how many per exchange have you guys seen people be excited about over the years from like GMX to gains to whatever. It just it doesn't seem like there's almost any sustainable moat and they're all competing for the same small number of kind of crypto whales and loose money and I don't know how many James wins there really are. But also there's just so much competition from Coinbase trying to be the everything exchange to Robin Hood. I think there's just vicious competition and I I just don't really see where the mode is. So, I think that's going to be really challenging. And Hyperlid is also it's unclear if this is really a platform or a DEX. And I think there's going to just there's just a lot of uncertainty and things that have to be figured out. And every major ecosystem has gone through at least one of these extremely challenging periods. And I just see that happen. I think this will be the first really big test in sentiment, community, long-term strategic priorities. I I just think it's going to be a really challenging kind of mean reversion year for Hyperlquid. That would be my that's my summary on all of these different ecosystems, but I'm curious, you know, what you guys agree with, disagree with.

I can just run through some of my quick reactions. I think uh on Salana I think they will continue to actually I'm a little bit more bullish on Salana I think than you are for next year. Like I think they will continue to increase their lead in uh retail app adoption. So like if you're building anything with like a you know a a financial component whether it's prediction markets or trading or like some new type of like social play like I think your your default choice is Salana today and I think that will just only continue and I think that will actually drive a lot of fees that the market wants to see from like you know a platform. I think Bass will probably start to look more and more like first party focused and integrated with the exchange as they see themselves like kind of losing uh this like you know to to Salana in terms of like getting third party apps. So, they'll just lean into the winners that they have today and try to actually exert leverage with their like you know exchange um to get more and more of those users actually doing things on base even if they don't know that they're doing things on base. And then on Ethereum I think you're uh yeah it's not like controversial like I think they are going to continue like winning RWA adoption. I think that they will uh this won't translate though into the fees that the market um wants to see these days basically with like you know uh that they'll see Salana actually acrewing a lot more value from the apps that launch on it than than Ethereum is just because these assets will kind of like just sit on chain. Unless there's lots of you know uh new classes of like RWA buyers driving activity and demand there. But that's much bigger if for me. So, yeah, those are the main ones. I agree like Hyperlid is kind of at a, you know, a fork in the road where they, um, I think they're going to compete with Salana for like getting assets that people want to trade, right? And we'll see if they can actually compete on spot as well. Because they need to if they're going to, I think, like, uh, be able to continue like growing um, their valuation. So, yeah. Z, what do you think?

Yeah, I think uh I agree with you, Miles, around the Salana point. I I do think that they have a real niche right now in the market with attracting consumer app developers. And it's really the era we're in right now in crypto for consumer apps and I think Salana is perfectly set up for this. The real competition there is probably bass, but I like I think we touched on it a bit before, but bass seems like maybe Mike, you had this in your prediction tweet where, you know, bass was maybe somewhere in between finding a niche and not finding a niche and they're still trying to find out sort of maybe what their northstar actually is. Whereas with Salana, it's pretty simple and always has been. So, I think I'm pretty bullish on Salana again. Actually this year I'm like mildly or like sort of yeah conservatively bullish on Salana. Um with Ethereum totally aligned with you guys. I think it's pretty clear that Ethereum is going to have a big year. I do actually think for the first time this could translate to price. Um, and I might take the sort of contrarian angle here where I do think that Ethereum could start having a higher monetary premium in 2026 as chains like Stripe goes live. Um, so I think it'll be a very interesting year for Ethereum in terms of adoption as well as like um everything else that comes with that. Didn't touch on Stripe, but I'm also bullish on Stripe going live uh in 2026. I know a lot of predictions have been kind of bearish. Tempo, I should say, not Stripe. But, um, yeah, I think Tempo in itself, like if Stripe gets some of their activity on Tempo, I do think that it could potentially be quite a big year. I think the last valuation was 500 million. I think that could look cheap um, in 12 months time. So, that's my my take on on Tempo itself.

With regards to Hyperlid, um, I'm neutral on Hyperlid. I think that I don't know if they're going to have a majorly tough year. I was listening to predictions from 12 months ago actually in preparation for this episode and almost everyone had the same prediction 12 months ago around alt EVMs like doing massively and everyone was thinking about monad mega e bar chain hyperlquid to be honest like I didn't expect hyperl to be the winner out of those four chains and they are the winner now by far and I actually feel like that is probably going to continue being the case at least for some time. So, Hyperliquid, I I'm neutral and think that they could have an interesting year, but I don't have anything in particular around how bullish or bearish I am on it. And yeah, I'd say those are my thoughts on those four ecosystems. I think in general, I'm pretty neutral across the board. And then I would maybe add that base. Again, Mike might might not necessarily agree with this take and curious to hear you here, Mike, but um, I do think that base is pretty interesting for AI crypto developers. Just with all the sort of, um, A2A stuff they're doing, X4 O2 standards they're working on, etc. the distribution they have as well. Like for me, I've come across many many crypto AI developers working in the base ecosystem and that is very early and maybe 2026 isn't the right year for crypto AI but I do think that it it will be at some point and that and actually from what I understand right now Salana and Bass are pretty much 50/50 on this. So this could also be a bull case for Salana in 2026 um if it comes earlier than expected.

Yeah. And I'm just gonna make one note there. Uh, Tempo raised 500 million valuations. Their valuations five five billion. So they've got a lot of they've got to show like a lot to the market in 2026 if they're going to launch at that, right? So yeah, they said the expectations one point on on a tempo valuation and I was looking at this before the episode as well. So, Telegram at some point, maybe a year or two ago, had like a you know, a valuation in the several billions and when their token launched, it actually reached pretty much the same valuation as their private market valuation. So, this might be obscene to say, but you know, like crypto can be obscene at times and Stripe's valuation now is, you know, pretty much 100 billion. So, you never know in crypto how these things are valued, um, if it will be anywhere close to that or not. So, yeah, it' be interesting to see what happens there.

One one point that I I had a separate prediction around this. I think that we are on the Ethereum versus Salana point here and fees. I think there's a lot of nuance to this subject. I had one prediction for this year. I think we're going to move beyond I'm so happy that we're talking about revenue right now. It's also nowhere close to sufficient and I think the vocabulary that the space is going to adopt over the current year or the coming year is revenue quality and durability. you know just as as concepts and I think people will start to dissect income streams from this perspective and one thing that I think investors are well and truly sick of is highly procyclical revenue streams we keep falling for this as an industry I could name any number of projects that the revenue goes up like this and you know I see a bunch of people annualize at the very top of their income stream right when it's about to turn because you're talking about a business which is inherently highly cyclical and I think investors have finally caughten on to this and they're going to stop giving those revenue streams the same credit as revenue streams which are provably more durable. And the reason I think this matters even when I look at Ethereum versus Salana, I completely agree that Salana is going to extract more value. There's just more uh value and fee potential for a chain that turns over as much volume as Salana does with their strategy. But I also think that investors will give a higher REV multiple towards what is more sustainable and predictable revenue. Like when I just think about the use case of issuing RWAS, onchain finance, money market fund type things, that just is very sustainable to me versus I I see that the more retail trading high slippage fee extraction game that's just a really cyclical income stream I think into the foreseeable future. And so even though the amount of fees could be quite different, I think that investors will the way that I make sense of this in my head is essentially give a higher REV multiple to Ethereum than Salana.

That makes sense to me. Um, so I I also didn't mean to sound bearish on Salana at all. I think I actually I just Hyperlid was able to pivot or counterposition successfully against Salana by being more opinionated and essentially just building a DEX right into the structure of this chain. But I also think that makes them not a platform. And I think that Salana's neutrality is going to ultimately win them that market. And yeah, I'm very bullish from very bullish on Salana.

I think a point on that as well, the the difference with Salana in 2026 versus other years is that they were the underdog for many many years and there was a narrative around them maybe taking over Ethereum, etc. And now it kind of feels like they're a bit further away from that than they were maybe this time 12 months ago. And so like whilst I think we all are aligned that the future is bright for Salana, I think there's still, you know, room for them to grow and they still have a little bit more to go to like really get to where Ethereum is at right now. And if anything, Ethereum has kind of got their act together, which is why I think that we're all still bullish on Salana as an ecosystem. But I just think that Ethereum finally is like actually now there and is viable competitor and it's less um known if they're going to be able to overtake Ethereum in the near future, which makes it more exciting to follow than ever really.

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Can we go on to our next category of predictions here, which is DeFi? Um, and maybe I can maybe I can lead off and some of this is going to dovetail with at least my thoughts on Ethereum. And I think we're all actually pretty aligned about Ethereum, but I think Salana or I think Ethereum rather has pretty convincingly won this RWA issuance onchain finance use case. And I think one of the part of the reason too I think there's a road towards fees here for Ethereum where you have activities like one thing that I think is going to take off in 2026 is RWA looping. and vault management. I'm not really sticking my neck out here, but I think if you look at an enormous a huge percentage of what's driven TVL and usage in things like a um is this idea of looping and there's an analog here which is in traditional finance, people like to put leverage on extremely safe trades like a treasury convergence trade, right? So there's extremely um you know lowrisk profit. uh it's not totally arbitrage but it's the closest thing and so you can take this trade which is very safe but doesn't earn you very much and lever it up to get um to get much better returns and I think that that activity is going to be replicated on onchain rails and if you just look at the assets that people want to use in borrow lend protocols it's much more it's most mostly stable coins that people want to borrow or yielding assets and so I think that that looping behavior people are going to want to replicate But it's going to be on real world assets as opposed to digitally, you know, bearer um digital bearer instruments like ETH. But there are lots of challenges to that. Like there's a liquidity cadence to RWAS that doesn't necessarily exist with, you know, you can't just like if you were to tokenize a delta neutral fund or something like that, you can't just take that into the market and sell it whenever you want um because maybe you can only redeem once a month. And so I think there's there are going to be some very clever uh protocol constructions that do quite well. And as a secondary prediction to that uh I'll just get through my my three here and then Miles I'd love to get your response. I think credit funds are going to be a much bigger thing. This does tells the future prediction but I think there's going to be some real pain in VC. I think there's been some less than flattering performance over the last couple years that I think is going to come to light and get reported on. But I also think the kind of longonly altcoin uh strategies that haven't panned out, I think VCs are going to move into credit, but I think real big credit funds like Apollo and some very sophisticated credit traders are going to move in once they see this onchain use case take off. So I think that's going to have a really big year. And then finally, I think the two big, if I had to, you know, go out on more of a limb, I think Pendle and Morpho are going to be the two big five DeFi winners of this year. Morpho because they've got the right construction. They've got a great team. They've got a very simple they don't have this labs token dilemma. And I think they're just going to continue to win there. And honestly, almost all of the you know curators and vault people, they're all building on Morpho and they just have true product market fit there. On the Pendle side of things, I think they kind of built there have been a number of attempts to build like an interest rate swap, you know, ability to create fixed rate borrow lend and I think Boros is going to be really really successful around that. So, I think it's going to be a big year for Pendle and Morpho. But curious what you guys think of any of those or any other predictions you guys have on the DeFi side of things.

Yeah, maybe I'll go quick. Like I I don't I don't know if how strongly I feel about this, but I might take the other side of like the uh the RWA growth. And what I mean by this is like I think right now we we see who's like the demand side for these assets. It's cryptonative, you know, whales, cryptonative institutional buyers, cryptonative protocols, right? And so I think we will stall out unless we like can expand that demand side, right? Because you know it's fairly fairly saturated at the moment in terms of who who like new buyers are not coming in a ton. So you need like um basically protocol driven demand. So you think about like a product that can sell B2B TOC, right? Maybe it's a vault managed product that buys these assets and then integrates into the front end of like a fintech app, right? And so I'm just not sure like what the demand is for, you know, integrating like DeFi mullet products that do sophisticated stuff on chain quite yet. And I but I do see that as like the most realistic path to like expanding that demand side for these assets. I'm just not sure if we're there yet. So that was yeah, just maybe one quick reaction to that. Just taking the other side of of of this a little bit. And then I think like we'll see a lot of um I think adoption of use cases that like bring their own demand side right so like you can think about treasury and like cash equivalents facilitating 24/7 financing against this this onchain collateral and that could happen more in these like pseudo corporate chains or or rollups right in like sort of walled garden environments when you know this is like something that people want an institution brings their customers with them to to offer it and it's not actually like as DeFi native as we might think. So yeah, maybe taking the other side of that a little bit, but I don't feel I I think like there's absolutely a chance that you're right. Uh and this plays out really well for those products.

Yeah, I think Mike your DeFi predictions are normally spoton. I think I directionally agree with most of what you mentioned just there. I do think that Ave will continue to grow. I'm also bullish on Morpho, but I think Ave will get us act together in 2026 and, you know, still be something interesting