This episode unpacks a $40,000 bet on a man's 40-day desert water fast, revealing the bizarre, high-stakes, and potentially rigged dynamics of prediction markets like Polymarket.
The $40,000 Polymarket Bet
- Prediction market bettor Tiki opens by detailing his $40,000 wager on Polymarket, a decentralized platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events. The market asks: "Will Lord Miles complete a 40-day water fast in the desert?"
- Tiki reveals he is one of the largest holders of "Yes" shares, having invested approximately $40,000 across multiple wallets.
- His average cost basis is 52 cents per share, positioning him for a potential $20,000 profit if Lord Miles succeeds.
- He acknowledges the strange nature of the bet, contrasting it with his usual focus on DeFi protocols.
Tiki frames the absurdity of his shift in focus: "You went from buying sophisticated DeFi crypto coins to betting on some random guy to fast in the desert. And I understand. I feel you, right?"
The Subject: Who is Lord Miles?
- To assess the bet's viability, Tiki provides crucial background on Lord Miles, portraying him as a controversial figure known for undertaking extreme and dangerous activities for attention. This context explains why the market gives him a non-trivial chance of success.
- Miles gained notoriety for traveling to Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul, where he was subsequently imprisoned by the Taliban for eight months.
- His history includes other high-risk stunts, such as illegally visiting a heavily protected, snake-infested island in Brazil.
- Tiki characterizes him as an individual predisposed to extreme challenges, making him a unique subject for such a demanding physical and mental test.
The Challenge and Its Evolving Rules
- The conditions of the 40-day water fast began to change almost immediately, significantly altering the perceived difficulty and influencing market odds.
- A water fast is an extreme diet consisting only of water and electrolytes. Undertaking one for 40 days is exceptionally dangerous and typically requires strict medical supervision.
- Initially, Miles attempted the fast in the open desert, but his live-streaming equipment overheated in the 109°F heat.
- He then moved into a luxury camping pod with continuous air conditioning, justifying the change as necessary to maintain the 24/7 live stream required by the bet. This move caused the odds of success to rise sharply, prompting Tiki to enter the market.
- Further controversy arose when Miles consumed vitamins on stream. After bettors bought "No" shares, Polymarket clarified the rules, stating that "ingestion of vitamins/mineral supplements without significant caloric value does not qualify as breaking the water fast."
Community Scrutiny and Market Drama
- The financial stakes on Polymarket incentivize intense, real-time investigation from the community, turning the bet into an adversarial spectacle.
- Bettors used open-source intelligence to pinpoint Miles's location, cross-referencing his live stream background with Google Maps images of a luxury desert resort.
- The presence of a pet cat in his tent was cited as further proof of a comfortable, climate-controlled setting, as most cat breeds cannot survive in extreme desert heat.
- The Polymarket comment section became a hub for accusations of fraud, with users claiming Miles and the platform were colluding to bend the rules for marketing purposes.
The Order Book Trenches and a Major Antagonist
- Tiki analyzes the market's liquidity dynamics, focusing on the "order book trenches" and a key player actively betting against Lord Miles.
- Order books are lists of buy and sell orders on a market. On illiquid prediction markets, a single large participant can heavily influence the odds.
- A user named "Windwalk3" emerged as the primary antagonist, accumulating over 500,000 "No" shares by spending approximately $260,000.
- This user provided substantial sell-side liquidity for "Yes" shares by placing large limit orders, which Tiki used to build his position.
- Windwalk3 is a serious market participant with a reported profit and loss of over $1 million on Polymarket, primarily from a successful bet on the 2024 U.S. election.
Dystopian Incentives and the Risk of Sabotage
- The large sums of money involved create perverse and potentially dangerous incentives for participants to influence the event's outcome directly.
- Tiki highlights the "dystopian" reality that a large financial stake could motivate someone to physically sabotage the fast, speculating on a scenario where someone could find Miles and force-feed him.
- Windwalk3 escalated the conflict by threatening a civil lawsuit against Lord Miles for fraud and misrepresentation.
- In response to perceived threats, Lord Miles moved to a new, undisclosed desert location for better security. This action itself sparked further debate over whether traveling violated the "continuous" nature of the fast.
Tiki on the market's strange incentives: "At some point... there's like some financial incentive to try to affect the outcome of an event."
Tiki's Thesis: Betting on a Rigged Market
- Tiki reveals his core investment thesis: he believes the market is structurally rigged in favor of a "Yes" outcome and has positioned his capital to exploit this edge.
- He argues that Lord Miles has near-total control over the outcome and is highly incentivized to complete the challenge to boost his personal brand.
- The potential for "soft cheating" combined with Miles's demonstrated grit for extreme stunts makes success highly probable.
- Miles is in direct communication with Polymarket to clarify rules, allowing him to navigate the challenge's terms without disqualification.
- Based on these factors, Tiki calculated the true probability of success at over 70%, creating a positive expected value (+EV) opportunity compared to the 52-cent price he paid.
Broader Opportunities in Prediction Markets
- Tiki broadens the discussion to the strategic value of prediction markets for crypto investors, particularly as an uncorrelated asset class and a venue for airdrop farming.
- Uncorrelated Returns: Prediction markets offer a way to generate profit independent of crypto market cycles. This is especially valuable in a potential bear market.
- Airdrop Farming: Tiki is using multiple wallets to place bets, a common strategy to maximize a potential future token airdrop from Polymarket.
- He identifies other potentially mispriced markets as examples:
- Betting against Ethereum hitting $17,000 in 2025 (priced at 5% odds).
- Betting on Mr. Beast's charity fundraiser successfully raising $40 million by its deadline.
Conclusion
This deep dive reveals prediction markets as a chaotic but potentially lucrative frontier where success hinges on analyzing human incentives and market structure. For investors, these markets offer uncorrelated returns and airdrop opportunities, demanding a unique blend of research, psychological analysis, and high risk tolerance.
