This episode provides a masterclass in on-chain sleuthing and project discovery, revealing how to find alpha in a choppy market by tracking whale wallets, political prediction markets, and emerging ecosystems like World Chain and Ink.
Market Overview & Emerging Narratives
The host begins by acknowledging the weak market conditions, with Bitcoin experiencing a downturn. Despite the bearish sentiment, he highlights a few standout performers that are bucking the trend, including Monero Chan and Wjack on Solana. This sets the stage for a deep dive into the specific wallets and entities driving these isolated pockets of strength.
On-Chain Sleuthing: Investigating Wjack Holders
- Wallet Analysis: He examines a wallet holding 2.5% of the Wjack supply, noting it acquired its position 17 days prior and has remained dormant since, suggesting a conviction play.
- SocialFi Connections: The investigation uncovers a wallet linked to Tribe.run, a SocialFi application on Solana. The host explains how to use the platform's URL structure to find associated wallet addresses, a technique he previously used to track influencers like Beanie.
- Developer Wallet Trace: He identifies the Wjack developer wallet, funded via Crypto.com, and traces its connections. He discovers the developer has deployed numerous other tokens and uses multiple wallets, including one named "Sir Bonds a lot," all linked through the same centralized exchange deposit address.
"This is just an example of how you can go through stuff one by one."
Uncovering the Poly Market Cabal
- Connected Wallets: He demonstrates that the top P&L accounts—including "Theo4," "Freddy," "Rep. Trump," and "Princess Carol"—all share the same Kraken deposit address, indicating they are controlled by the same person or group. This entity collectively won over $30 million betting on political outcomes.
- Tracing the Money: The host uses the tracer to map the flow of funds from the central Kraken deposit to various Poly Market proxy wallets. This reveals a complex web of transactions designed to obscure the entity's full scale.
- Potential Identity Clues: The investigation leads to an external wallet with an OpenSea profile named "Kingdar," suggesting a link to an NFT-focused group. While not definitive, it provides a tangible lead for further research into this highly successful prediction market entity.
- Strategic Implication: This analysis reveals how sophisticated actors use multiple accounts to spread out P&L and avoid detection. For researchers, it underscores the importance of tracing funds back to centralized exchange deposit addresses to uncover coordinated activity.
Project Discovery Workflow
- Tools of the Trade: He uses
getmoney.io and its browser extension to screen for new projects based on mentions from "smart followers." He filters through both curated and raw feeds to find early-stage ideas.
- Projects on the Radar:
- Rislef Fun: A Base project focused on "turning coins into cults."
- Spread: An AI-powered trading terminal for Poly Market.
- Decentralized AI: The host notes a rising trend in decentralized and privacy-focused AI projects, likely in response to recent market movers.
- Evaluation Criteria: His workflow involves checking for a team, reviewing their social profiles, reading documentation, and assessing whether the project has a live token. He prioritizes pre-token projects to maximize potential upside.
Emerging Ecosystems: World Chain and Ink
- World Chain's Distribution Advantage: He highlights World Chain's impressive user growth, with nearly 3 million unique claimers and rising daily active users. He compares its token distribution model to a bribe for user acquisition, similar to how he speculates the future BASE token might function.
- Actionable Insight: The host suggests the primary investment opportunity is not in the WORLD token itself but in the application layer. "You're probably better off like farming those apps rather than buying World outright as an ecosystem play."
- Ink's Growing TVL: After previously discussing it when its TVL (Total Value Locked) was only $4 million, the host notes that the Ink ecosystem is gaining serious traction. The launch of Tyro, a lending protocol, has driven significant capital inflows.
- Farming Opportunity: Users can deposit assets into Tyro to earn "Ink points," which may lead to a future airdrop. He sees this as a low-risk way to gain exposure to a burgeoning ecosystem.
Strategy for a Downtrending Market
- Stay Locked In, Not Over-Exposed: He recommends using downtime to research "pre-consensus" ideas that are not yet profitable but hold long-term potential, such as the World Chain app ecosystem or decentralized AI.
- Read and Write More: He advocates for disconnecting from the charts to read books and write, using tools like Obsidian to organize thoughts. This helps build a stronger intellectual and psychological foundation for the next market cycle.
- Focus on Fundamentals: He points to Uniswap's fee switch as a positive development for the ecosystem, suggesting its chart is worth watching despite the weak market. This highlights the importance of tracking projects with strong fundamentals and upcoming catalysts.
Conclusion
This episode demonstrates that alpha generation in a bear market shifts from riding broad trends to deep, niche-specific research. Investors and researchers should focus on mastering on-chain analysis to track sophisticated actors and identify early opportunities within emerging ecosystems like World Chain and Ink before they become mainstream narratives.
