This episode asserts that eliminating crime requires a multi-faceted strategy combining advanced technology, cultural shifts in policing, and targeted policy reforms, arguing that intelligence and certainty of capture, not just punishment, drive societal safety and economic mobility.
The Crisis of Unenforced Crime & Societal Incentives
- Ben Horowitz (BH) and Garrett Langley (GL) contend that failing to enforce crime creates "lost generations" and incentivizes criminal career paths. A national average 47% murder clearance rate means a coin flip chance of escaping justice, making crime a viable, high-reward option without social stigma in some communities.
- BH argues that a lack of enforcement fosters a "crime career path," preventing the creation of legitimate opportunities.
- GL highlights the 53% chance of getting away with murder outside of Las Vegas, demonstrating a systemic failure of deterrence.
- BH notes the economic incentive: criminals can earn "10x what I can make in a minimum wage job."
- The societal cost of mass incarceration is "double bad," as it removes productive citizens and creates a permanent "black mark" on lives.
"If you commit crimes, you're going to get caught. And then that kind of changes the societal incentives and the culture and everything else." – Ben Horowitz
Rebuilding Policing: People, Technology, Policy
- Garrett Langley outlines a comprehensive strategy for crime elimination focusing on "people, products, and policy." The current policing crisis stems from staffing shortages and cultural vilification, exacerbated by lowered standards and a lack of trust.
- People: GL proposes a "Teach for America for law enforcement" program, retiring student debt for two to four years of community service as patrol officers or crime analysts.
- Cultural Shift: BH and GL attribute staffing shortages and early retirements to the "complete vilification" of police, arguing the issue is "entirely cultural."
- Products (Technology): GL emphasizes an AI and orchestration layer atop sensors like gunshot detection, drones, and cameras to manage abundant data, ensuring accountability and transparency.
- Policy: GL stresses the need to prosecute crime and avoid decriminalization, which creates systemic problems.
"The only thing that's changed is the stigma attached to the job." – Garrett Langley
The Deteriorating Clearance Rate & Its Causes
- Garrett Langley details why crime clearance rates have plummeted nationally, citing a confluence of factors beyond just police performance. This decline creates a perception of impunity, further fueling criminal activity.
- Higher Expectations: Societal demands for evidence (e.g., DNA, video) have increased, making convictions harder, which GL notes is a positive development for justice.
- Witness Cooperation: Witness participation has "gone" due to personal risk, severely hindering investigations.
- Crime Mix Shift: Homicides have shifted from domestic to random, gang-related, or drug-deal-gone-wrong scenarios, which are inherently harder to solve.
- Evidence Overload: The volume of digital evidence (e.g., thousands of camera feeds) overwhelms current skill sets and technology, as "no one's watching them."
- Staffing Crisis: Experienced detectives have retired early, leaving departments staffed by young, inexperienced officers who "have no idea how to solve a homicide."
"You have a coin flip for murder. You have a 53% chance of getting away with murder." – Garrett Langley
Vegas as a Blueprint: Public-Private Tech Integration
- Ben Horowitz highlights Las Vegas as a case study in effective crime reduction through technology and community engagement, driven by public-private partnerships. This model demonstrates how targeted investment can rapidly transform public safety.
- Community Acceptance: Despite press criticism (e.g., "surveillance big brother"), the Las Vegas community "really, really appreciate" the increased safety and certainty of capture.
- Image & Recruitment: Cybertrucks, despite initial online criticism, have proven "great for recruiting," attracting younger talent and improving police image.
- Public-Private Partnerships: GL notes that government innovation is slow; private entities (individuals, companies like Lowe's) fund technology, making "marginal investment" that "completely transform[s] the police force."
- Operational Impact: Small private investments, like an ice machine and gym for 911 dispatchers, drastically improved morale and reduced call wait times from five minutes to under 30 seconds.
"You can commit a crime in Vegas, you can't get away with it." – Ben Horowitz
Beyond Privacy: Trust, Transparency, and Objective Policing
- Garrett Langley addresses criticisms of Flock Safety's technology, arguing that concerns often mislabel "privacy erosion" when the core issue is a lack of trust in police departments. Flock's objective data fosters transparency and improves policing outcomes.
- Privacy Misconception: GL asserts that Flock Safety's license plate readers (LPRs) operate in public spaces, and cell phone data is "way more effective" for government surveillance, making privacy concerns "quite false."
- Trust Deficit: The real challenge is deep-seated distrust in police departments within certain communities, which Flock's transparency tools aim to address.
- Objective Policing: Flock's technology shifts policing from "subjective-based" to "objective-based," reducing false arrests and allowing police to build community relationships.
- "Defund the Police" Irony: BH and GL argue that defunding police disproportionately harms poor communities, leading to "privatized police for rich people" and a "degenerate society."
"The trust is real though. And so, if you go to some communities, they do not trust their police department." – Garrett Langley
Reforming Justice: Disincentivizing Criminal Careers
- The speakers differentiate between law enforcement and prison reform, advocating for policies that disincentivize criminal career paths while addressing systemic issues within the justice system. They emphasize rehabilitation for non-violent offenders.
- Prison Reform: BH highlights the US prison system's 70%+ recidivism rate, arguing it trains "betas" (opportunistic criminals) into hardened offenders. Reform should focus on rehabilitation, not just punishment.
- Alternative Paths: Vegas's "Hope for Prisoners" program offers non-violent first-time offenders rehabilitation and job placement, achieving "close to zero percent recidivism."
- Disincentivizing Crime: Creating alternative career paths must coincide with disincentivizing criminal ones through certain capture and prosecution.
- Organized Crime: Decriminalization policies (e.g., shoplifting in San Francisco) are exploited by "massive gangs" and organized crime, not just "hungry people," leading to widespread societal harm.
"You basically then create an incentive for nobody to be productive for, you know, your incentive for murder, incentive for robbery, incentive for rape, all that kind of thing." – Ben Horowitz
The Future: Precision Intelligence & Community Safety
- Garrett Langley envisions a future of "intelligent precision policing" where integrated data and sensors enable safer, more effective law enforcement, freeing officers to engage with communities. This model prioritizes safety and economic mobility.
- Integrated Intelligence: A real-time crime center (RTCC) integrates all data and sensors, allowing for precise responses, such as deploying drones (unmanned aerial vehicles) for overhead protection during apprehensions.
- Reduced Risk: Precision intelligence reduces dangerous "unknown situations," leading to a 75% drop in police shootings of suspects in Vegas after camera and drone deployment.
- Staffing Efficiency: Software can automate undesirable tasks (e.g., night shifts, paperwork), allowing officers more time for community engagement.
- Life-Saving Impact: Flock Safety's technology has helped return over 450 missing children in a single year, demonstrating its direct impact on public safety.
"When I look at this police department, they've got all their data integrated. They have all their sensors integrated, it's just happening." – Garrett Langley
Investor & Researcher Alpha
- Public Safety Tech Investment: Capital flows into AI-powered sensor networks (LPRs, gunshot detection, drones) and orchestration layers for law enforcement. Companies like Flock Safety demonstrate significant market traction and impact.
- Policy-Driven Market Shifts: Policy changes favoring "certain punishment" and public-private partnerships create new demand for advanced policing technology, particularly in cities with strong mayoral/DA leadership.
- Recidivism Reduction & Social Impact Bonds: Research into and investment in rehabilitation programs (e.g., Hope for Prisoners) for non-violent offenders offer high social ROI and potential for new funding models.
Strategic Conclusion
Eliminating crime demands a systemic overhaul: integrating advanced AI-driven intelligence with community-focused policing and robust policy. This approach ensures certainty of capture, disincentivizes criminal careers, and fosters safe environments essential for economic mobility. The next step for society is to embrace these technological and policy shifts, moving beyond outdated debates to build truly secure communities.
