1000x Podcast
June 3, 2025

How To Trade Using Open Interest & Funding Rates

This episode dives deep into the often-misunderstood metrics of Open Interest (OI) and funding rates, with host Avi from Vevel.xyz explaining his framework for identifying over-leveraged markets and timing trades. It’s a masterclass in looking beyond surface-level data to gauge true market sentiment.

Decoding Market Leverage with Open Interest

  • "For a 40% move, you get 15,000 coins added in OI. For a 9% move, you get 40,000 coins added in leverage. It's all about the ratio."
  • "Once it starts going sideways, you know, 'Alright, I gotta get out' because these guys [the leveraged longs] are going to have to come off at some point."
  • The OI-to-Price Ratio is Key: A sharp increase in Open Interest relative to a smaller price move signals dangerous leverage. For instance, Bitcoin adding 40,000 coins in OI on a mere 9% price pump is a red flag compared to 15,000 coins added during a 40% rally.
  • Stagnation Signals Exhaustion: When price momentum stalls after a significant OI surge, and OI remains flat, it indicates that buyers are tapped out, and the late, highly leveraged longs are vulnerable.
  • Patience Pays: Avi's rule of thumb is to avoid buying until this excess leverage, visible in OI, unwinds. He waits for OI to drop significantly (e.g., another 10,000-13,000 Bitcoin OI to come off from current levels) before considering aggressive entries, especially into altcoins.

Funding Rates: A Secondary Confirmation Tool

  • "The issue with funding rates is that you often look at them over time, but what matters are the spikes."
  • "I don't actually use funding at all anymore except to confirm direction of open interest; otherwise, it just doesn't really make sense to use because of all the people that are arbing it."
  • Spikes Over Averages: Isolated spikes in funding rates are more telling than the general trend, as persistent high funding is quickly arbitraged away by deep-pocketed players.
  • Confirmatory, Not Primary: Funding rate spikes help confirm that a rise in Open Interest is indeed driven by aggressive long positions, rather than being neutral or short-biased. Market makers often take the other side and hedge, but the aggressive takers define the OI's directional bias.
  • Arbitrage Keeps Rates in Check: The prevalence of arbitrageurs with significant balance sheets means funding rates rarely stay elevated for long. These players deploy capital when rates offer a premium over their internal cost of capital (factoring in risk-free rates like T-bills and opportunity costs).

The Trader's Playbook: Timing and Tactics

  • "The guys that add all of this leverage are generally the last buyers of a rally... they're going to make all their money in this tiny little section over here."
  • Identifying Latecomers: Excessive leverage often comes from traders chasing the final leg of a rally, becoming vulnerable to unwinds.
  • Strategic Exits/Lightening Up: When OI indicates high leverage and price stalls, it's a signal to lighten up long positions or avoid new entries, rather than necessarily shorting aggressively every time.
  • The Altcoin Signal: A significant deleveraging in Bitcoin (indicated by falling OI) can be a strong buy signal for altcoins, as capital rotates after the "leverage tourists" are flushed out.

Key Takeaways:

  • Understanding the ratio of Open Interest change to price movement is more critical than looking at funding rates in isolation for gauging market leverage. Funding rate spikes serve primarily to confirm the directional bias of new OI.
  • OI > Funding: Prioritize Open Interest changes relative to price action over simple funding rate levels to spot leverage bubbles.
  • Patience is Profitable: Wait for significant OI unwinds after leverage build-ups before re-entering the market, particularly for altcoins post-Bitcoin deleveraging.
  • Funding Spikes Confirm: Use funding rate spikes solely to confirm that surges in Open Interest are due to aggressive directional bets (usually longs).

Podcast Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38M4dwHvlwA

This episode offers a masterclass in deciphering crypto market leverage, revealing why focusing solely on funding rates can be misleading and how Open Interest provides a more accurate gauge of speculative excess.

The Misleading Nature of Funding Rates

  • Jonah kicks off the discussion by admitting a misjudgment: he previously believed the crypto market wasn't overly leveraged when Bitcoin was at its highs (referencing a price point "above 110"), primarily because funding rates—periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures—appeared relatively tame. He notes that rates on platforms like Bybit (8.4%), OKX (3.5%), and Binance (3.5%) didn't scream "crazy funding" compared to historical spikes, such as the 42% Bybit funding seen around a past election. This led him to question what crucial market signal he overlooked, as leverage clearly unwound afterward.
  • Speaker Perspective (Jonah): Jonah's candid admission of overlooking key indicators sets a relatable tone, highlighting a common pitfall for market participants.
  • Strategic Implication: Investors should be wary of relying on a single indicator like funding rates to assess market leverage, as they may not capture the full picture of speculative positioning.

Avi's Analysis: The Primacy of Open Interest

  • Avi clarifies that the key metric Jonah missed was Open Interest (OI)—the total value of outstanding derivative contracts. He emphasizes analyzing the ratio of OI increase (in coin terms) to the percentage price movement of the underlying asset, using Bitcoin on Vevel.xyz as an example. A significant surge in OI relative to a small price gain signals a dangerous buildup of leverage.
  • Avi points to a specific period:
    • A 40% Bitcoin price move resulted in a 15,000 BTC increase in OI.
    • Later, a mere 9% price move (e.g., from $102,000 to $111,000) saw OI jump by 40,000 BTC.
  • Avi states, "It's all about the ratio... if that ratio is like two or three, then you're in a you're in a danger zone."
  • Technical Term: Open Interest (OI) represents the total number of unsettled derivative contracts (like futures or options). A high OI indicates more capital and interest in the market, but a rapid increase disproportionate to price movement can signal excessive speculation.
  • Actionable Insight: Crypto AI researchers could explore developing models that track the ratio of OI change to price volatility as a more robust indicator of market froth than funding rates alone.

Identifying Overleveraged Market Tops

  • Avi explains that when Bitcoin’s price moves sideways after a significant leverage-driven rally (indicated by a high OI-to-price-move ratio) and OI remains flat, it’s a critical warning sign. This stagnation means no new buyers are entering, and the existing highly leveraged traders are vulnerable, as funding costs eat into their positions. These latecomers are often "the last buyers of a rally."
  • Avi’s personal trading rule: He avoids buying until this excess OI unwinds, waiting for a significant portion of the added leveraged positions (e.g., 10,000-13,000 BTC in OI) to come off the market.
  • Strategic Consideration: For investors, recognizing these patterns—a sharp OI increase on modest price gains followed by price stagnation with flat OI—can be a signal to reduce exposure or avoid new long positions.

The True Role of Funding Rate Spikes

  • Jonah concedes his overemphasis on funding rates. Avi clarifies that while he doesn't primarily use funding rates for trading decisions anymore, their spikes serve a crucial purpose: to confirm the direction of the Open Interest buildup.
  • Funding Rates: These are payments exchanged between long and short positions in perpetual futures, designed to tether the futures price to the spot price. Positive rates mean longs pay shorts, indicating bullish sentiment among takers.
  • Avi explains, "The funding rate spike tells me that I'm not just imagining that this open interest is long."
  • When OI rises sharply accompanied by a funding rate spike, it strongly suggests that aggressive "takers" are establishing long positions, with market makers taking the short side and hedging their risk. This results in a net long bias in the market.
  • Speaker Perspective (Avi): Avi’s nuanced view positions funding rates as a secondary, confirmatory tool rather than a primary indicator, due to market efficiencies.
  • Actionable Insight: Researchers can correlate OI surges with funding rate behavior to better classify the nature of speculative interest—whether it's predominantly bullish or bearish accumulation.

Market Arbitrage and its Impact on Funding Rates

  • Avi notes that funding rates rarely stay elevated for long due to sophisticated arbitrageurs. Jonah elaborates, explaining that large TradFi (Traditional Finance) institutions and well-capitalized crypto firms actively engage in basis trades—profiting from discrepancies between spot and futures prices, which includes capturing funding payments.
  • Basis Trade: A strategy exploiting the price difference between an asset in the spot market and its futures contract, often involving going long spot and short futures (or vice-versa) to capture the funding rate or price convergence.
  • These entities have significant balance sheets (e.g., a firm with a $1.5 billion balance sheet taking a $500 million position) and often have relationships with exchanges that may prevent premature liquidation, allowing them to "arb out funding rates all day."
  • Strategic Implication: The efficiency of these arbitrage operations means that sustained high funding rates are rare. Investors should understand that funding rates quickly revert to near-neutral levels, making prolonged reliance on them as a directional signal less effective.

Influence of Macro Interest Rates on Crypto Funding

  • Jonah highlights that broader macroeconomic conditions, specifically central bank interest rates like the Fed's short-term borrowing rate, set a floor for crypto funding rates. TradFi institutions evaluate crypto arbitrage opportunities against risk-free rates (e.g., T-bills) and other available trades.
  • T-bills (Treasury Bills): Short-term debt obligations backed by the U.S. government, considered a low-risk investment.
  • If T-bills offer, for example, 4.1%, an institution wouldn't pursue a riskier 3.5% Bitcoin basis trade. However, they would engage if the arbitrage offered a significantly higher return, like 20%.
  • This "internal funding threshold" or opportunity cost means there's always capital ready to deploy when funding rates spike significantly, contributing to their short-lived nature.
  • Actionable Insight: Crypto AI investors should consider macro interest rate environments when analyzing funding rate data, as higher risk-free rates can dampen speculative appetite for lower-yield crypto arbitrage, potentially allowing funding rates to deviate more, albeit temporarily.

Conclusion: Integrating Open Interest for Sharper Market Analysis

  • This discussion underscores the critical need to look beyond surface-level indicators like funding rates. By prioritizing Open Interest relative to price action, investors and researchers can gain a more accurate understanding of market leverage and sentiment, crucial for navigating volatile crypto markets.

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