This episode delves into the high-stakes evolution of drone warfare, revealing how AI and autonomy are creating new battlefield dynamics and strategic challenges for US technological dominance.
Founders' Journeys: Mission, Technology, and Persistence
- The discussion begins with the origin stories of Ryan (Shield AI) and Adam (Skydio), founders of leading US drone technology companies. Ryan, driven by a desire for a "noble mission" and influenced by his Navy SEAL brother's experiences, co-founded Shield AI to leverage autonomous driving technology for protecting service members, viewing it initially as a "stupid business" but ultimately recognizing its profound importance. Ryan emphasizes his motivation: "if I could find the intersection of three things a noble mission the chance to work with extraordinary people and a chance to define the possible. I'd have that fire in the belly." His perspective highlights a mission-first approach grounded in national security needs.
- Adam, coming from a background in radio-controlled aircraft and AI research at MIT, co-founded Skydio with the vision that onboard AI and autonomy would unlock the potential of small quadcopters across various industries. Skydio initially focused on consumer products, believing ease-of-use was key, before pivoting significantly towards defense applications as the military recognized the value of small, intelligent drones. Adam notes, "the big bet that we made when we started Skydio was that AI and autonomy built into a small lake quadcopter was going to be very powerful for a wide range of industries..." His journey reflects a technology-first approach, adapting to market demands, particularly from the defense sector.
The Transformation of Warfare: Drones on the Modern Battlefield
- The conversation shifts to the dramatic impact drones have had on modern warfare, particularly highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine. Ryan observes a fundamental change from concentrated forces dependent on large, expensive ("exquisite") assets to more distributed, decentralized, and lethal structures enabled by drones capable of long-range strikes. This proliferation signifies a complete transformation, demanding that the US and its allies adapt lessons from conflicts like Ukraine to maintain effectiveness against adversaries who have studied and countered traditional US force structures.
Asymmetry and the Dual-Use Dilemma
- Adam addresses the stark asymmetry created by drone technology, where systems costing a few thousand dollars can neutralize assets worth millions (e.g., tanks). He notes that the US military is still grappling with the implications of this shift, contrasting the scrappy, rapid innovation seen in Ukraine out of necessity with the inertia often present in established military procurement. Adam states, "A system that costs a few thousand can take out a system that costs a few million dollars. I don't think we fully grappled with that yet, to be honest." This asymmetry forces a re-evaluation of traditional military investments and doctrine, presenting both threats and opportunities.
The US vs. China: Industrial Capacity and Technological Edge
- A major theme emerges: the significant gap in manufacturing scale between the US and China, particularly concerning drones and related electronics. Adam traces this back to decades of outsourcing manufacturing, creating a disadvantage not just in cost but in the entire ecosystem of technical expertise, component production (like PCBs - Printed Circuit Boards, the foundational component housing electronic circuits), and assembly. While acknowledging recent policy shifts aiming to re-shore manufacturing (“cause for optimism,”) he stresses the difficulty, noting, "wherever they're building iPhones, they're going to have a really good ecosystem for building drones."
- Ryan echoes this concern, calling China's industrial capacity "fearsome" and suggesting the US is approaching a critical "Max Q moment"—a point of maximum stress during ascent, used here metaphorically for national security—due to technological shifts (like AI) and a powerful adversary. He argues that while closing the pure manufacturing gap is vital but difficult, the US strategic advantage lies in software, AI, and autonomy to make its deployed systems maximally effective.
Beyond Mass: The Critical Role of AI and Autonomy
- Both speakers emphasize that simply matching adversary mass (drone quantity) is insufficient. Ryan argues that effectiveness comes from intelligent systems capable of finding, fixing, and finishing targets efficiently, differentiating between sheer mass and battlefield effect. He posits that the US strength lies in "the software prowess, the AI, the autonomy," which must be combined with efforts to increase production capacity.
- Adam identifies AI and autonomy as the "second wave" that hasn't fully broken yet, moving beyond remotely piloted or simple pre-programmed drones. He believes future conflicts will see drones "animated by really advanced autonomy," capable of complex tasks and communication, potentially offering an even greater strategic impact than the initial introduction of unmanned systems. Adam asserts, "winning on the AI front I think is is even more important" than solely focusing on hardware manufacturing.
Policy Recommendations: Scaling Production and Accelerating Deployment
- When asked for recommendations to policymakers, Adam points out the drastic mismatch in scale: Ukrainians use millions of small drones annually, while comparable US military programs operate in the low thousands—"literally off by like three orders of magnitude." He advocates for significantly increasing procurement quantities for systems like small quadcopters, arguing military purchasing power could revitalize the domestic industrial base for this critical dual-use technology, benefiting national security, public safety, and infrastructure inspection.
- Ryan suggests a simple, albeit challenging, approach: "if you just went down all the quantities of everything and just added a zero behind all of them..." while acknowledging the need to potentially reduce ("add a decimal") funding for some legacy systems. The core idea is a strategic reallocation of resources towards large numbers of smaller, smarter, AI-driven systems.
Swarming Capabilities: Reality vs. Hype
- The discussion addresses concerns about China's perceived lead in drone swarm technology, often exemplified by large-scale drone light shows. Adam clarifies that these shows rely heavily on GPS (Global Positioning System) for navigation and continuous Comms (Communications links), both of which are easily disrupted (“jammed”) on a modern battlefield. He argues that true military effectiveness requires autonomous operation in GPS-denied, comms-contested environments. Adam asserts that Skydio's competitive advantage against DJI (the leading Chinese drone maker) lies in superior AI and autonomy, enabling drones to sense and react to their environment independently—a capability far more relevant for defense than choreographed light shows.
Enabling the Industrial Base with AI
- Ryan explains Shield AI's strategic shift from solely building the "world's best AI pilot" for its own systems to making that core AI capability available to the broader US defense industrial base. This aims to accelerate the adoption of advanced autonomy across various platforms built by different manufacturers, viewing this enablement as their "best and highest contribution" to national security. This strategy focuses on disseminating advanced AI software to enhance the effectiveness of the entire ecosystem.
Operating in Contested Electronic Warfare Environments
- Both speakers stress the criticality of operating effectively in environments saturated with EW (Electronic Warfare), where GPS signals and communication links are actively jammed or disrupted. Adam candidly shares Skydio's initial struggles in Ukraine, where their first-generation drones, built to prior US Army requirements lacking EW considerations, largely failed. This "painful process" forced Skydio to rapidly adapt its vision-based AI systems to navigate and operate without GPS or reliable comms, a capability now central to their offerings and increasingly demanded by global militaries.
- Ryan shares a compelling anecdote about Shield AI's V-BAT drone in Ukraine losing GPS just 3 feet off the ground due to intense jamming. His team rapidly re-engineered the software stack within 24 hours to operate entirely without GPS, enabling a successful mission shortly after. This highlights the extreme EW conditions and the critical need for adaptable, resilient systems.
The "Software Writing Fight": Speed as a Decisive Factor
- Ryan's V-BAT story underscores a crucial point: the speed of software development and deployment is paramount in modern conflict. He contrasts the 24-hour turnaround in Ukraine with traditional military processes that can take months or years for software updates. Adam concurs, stating, "in many ways I think a modern conflict... becomes basically like a software writing fight and the speed at which you can write it and deploy it really matters." Both see the current pace within formal military programs as a significant vulnerability that needs urgent reform, emphasizing that industry and government must collaborate to achieve near real-time software adaptation.
Autonomy, Ethics, and Human Control
- The conversation tackles the sensitive issue of autonomous weapons and human control. Adam acknowledges the legitimate concerns but emphasizes the inescapable "game theory" – the US cannot afford *not* to develop advanced autonomy if adversaries are doing so. He highlights the US military's sophisticated thinking on ethical frameworks and rules of engagement, arguing that human judgment remains central to US doctrine. Furthermore, he points out that AI can potentially *reduce* collateral damage compared to less precise legacy weapons (like large bombs), enabling more targeted effects. Adam notes, "ultimately human judgment is really important right a human exercising judgment uh in in how force should be used is is super important."
- Ryan adds that currently, human-machine teams are generally more effective than fully autonomous systems. However, he introduces a scenario involving defensive postures, referencing the automated Phalanx CIWS (Close-In Weapon System) on naval ships, suggesting that under duress, forces might increasingly rely on machine speed for survival. This raises complex questions about escalation and how forces trained for human-speed engagements would react to fully automated defenses. The consensus is that while human oversight is currently central, the US must lead in understanding and developing these capabilities responsibly to be prepared for all future possibilities.
Future Scenarios: The Imperative of US Leadership
- Looking ahead 10 years, the speakers paint a stark picture. A future where adversaries like China or Russia dominate AI-driven autonomous systems is deemed unacceptable, drawing parallels to scenarios like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union achieving nuclear superiority. Adam argues that AI is arguably the "most important technology... in the history of humanity," making US leadership essential not just for military security but for global stability. He cautions against overly restrictive domestic regulations that could unilaterally cede advantage to rivals, stating that overly cautious approaches are "music to [adversaries'] ears." Ryan concludes that regardless of uncertainties, "American leadership is the answer."
Advice for Aspiring Defense Tech Founders
- Addressing potential founders interested in defense or public safety tech, Ryan emphasizes that the "mission is worth it," providing a foundational layer for societal stability. Adam adds a crucial dose of realism: "this stuff is just extremely challenging," particularly hardware development for critical industries. He advises founders to expect hardship and, ideally, to "love that" challenge, as resilience and passion for solving difficult problems are essential for long-term success in this demanding field. Adam suggests, "you got to embrace the struggle."
This episode highlights AI autonomy and rapid software iteration as decisive factors in modern drone warfare. Investors and researchers should monitor developments in edge AI, resilient systems, and defense procurement shifts, recognizing these as critical indicators of future strategic advantage and market direction.
