Taiki Maeda
February 1, 2026

Crypto is so Cooked.

The Institutional Exodus: Why Crypto is Cooked, and Where to Find the Next Carvana

Author: Taiki Maeda

Date: October 2023

Quick Insight: This summary dissects the current crypto bear market, highlighting how institutional selling and "garbage DAOs" have driven prices down. It then pivots to a strategic shift, guiding investors on how to identify high-potential long-term plays amidst the capitulation.

  • 💡 How did institutional players like "Tom Lee" and "Bitmine" inadvertently trigger Ethereum's price collapse?
  • 💡 What are the hidden signals in stablecoin dynamics and MSTR/Bitcoin ratios that predict market tops and bottoms?
  • 💡 Beyond shorting, what specific strategies and altcoins should investors consider for a potential K-shaped recovery?

Top 3 Ideas

🏗️ The Shorting Edge

"ETH has no upside, moderate downside. So, to short it, collect funding, farm perexes, win-win."
  • Marginal Buyers: Entities like MSTR and Bitmine were the primary speculative buyers of crypto. Their financial strain directly reduces market demand.
  • Market Proxy: The MSTR to Bitcoin ratio breaking down signaled a market top. This indicates a loss of leveraged Bitcoin exposure appeal.
  • Trickle Down: Altcoin price drops reduce stablecoin yield, slowing stablecoin market cap growth. This removes a key growth narrative for Ethereum.

🏗️ The Tom Lee Effect

"Tom Lee has been propping up Ethereum above fair value because Ethereum is still very expensive."
  • Artificial Demand: Tom Lee's aggressive ETH purchases through Bitmine inflated Ethereum's price. His buying created a perceived safety net for retail.
  • Incentive Alignment: Tom Lee received a $15 million bonus on January 15th, coinciding with Ethereum's local top. He then diversified $200 million into Mr. Beast equity, signaling a shift in focus from ETH.

🏗️ The Great Purge

"True wealth is built in a bare market."
  • Garbage DAOs: Many DAOs like Ezilla and DeFi Dev Corp are described as scams, selling assets for jet engines or launching memecoins. Their existence creates an overhead supply and drags the industry down.
  • K-Shaped Recovery: The market will likely see a K-shaped recovery, where Bitcoin and tokens with strong value accrual and buybacks recover, while overvalued infrastructure and garbage projects continue to decline.

Actionable Takeaways

  • 🌐 The Macro Shift: Institutional capital flow dictates market cycles; the current downturn purges weak projects, paving the way for a value-driven recovery.
  • ⚡ The Tactical Edge: Identify projects with genuine value accrual, strong fundamentals, and potential for buybacks, preparing to dollar-cost average into these "Carvana" plays.
  • 🎯 The Bottom Line: The current "gross" feeling is a signal to strategically deploy capital into long-term, high-conviction assets, rather than short-term trading.

Podcast Link: Click here to listen

I made over $1 million shorting ETH and altcoins over the last four months. In this video, I will be reflecting on the recent market crash and how I will be approaching the markets moving forward. This is the agenda for the video. So, let's get right into it.

So, this is my current position on ETH. I'm short $3 million. I'm up over $600,000 and honestly, the markets are moving really fast. So, by the time you watch this video, I'm not even sure if I'll have this on. For context, I'm recording this 11:00 a.m. on Sunday. Maybe follow me on Twitter. I'll probably post an update if I do close these shorts, but for the time being, I still think there's some downside, so I'm going to keep these on.

And my cumulative P&L on this per DEX is over $1.1 million. Most of this is from shorting Ethereum. This should not be a surprise to you guys. For the past 3 to four months, I've just been talking about shorting Ethereum. I thought that crypto has topped and the best way to make money, I think, is to just short ETH. ETH has no upside, moderate downside. So, to short it, collect funding, farm perexes, win-win.

I know some of you thinking, I thought you stopped shorting ETH because I did post this on Twitter on January 6th where I covered all my ETH shorts at a $100,000 loss. This was around the idea that **MSTR** could be delisted from **MSEI** indices. And when they weren't delisted, I just wanted to manage risk, cover my shorts, reevaluate. I was coping for a little bit just because as soon as I covered, I literally bought the top, and then we just went down straight afterwards.

One of my premium Discord members was like, I get why you did that, but nothing's changed, right? There's no one buying crypto. Tom Lee's running out of money, Michael Saylor's running out of money. Nothing's changed. So why not reenter? And I was like, you're right. I should re-enter. So over the past two to three weeks, I have been rebuilding my shorts and it's the biggest position I've had probably in my life, at least on the short side.

If you're interested in the premium discord, make sure to check it out. I post daily updates and three weekly premium videos.

So, let's talk about why crypto is going down. It's going to be kind of a recap of what I've been seeing over the past 3 months because I think everything I've talked about is happening in real time. So I do want to recap what's happening and what I think will happen going forward.

My entire thesis around shorting ETH and whatnot is understanding that **DATs** like **MSTR**, **Bitmine** and other of those garbage **DATs** they are the marginal buyers of crypto. So when they run out of money crypto should go down and cry when Bitcoin goes down altcoins get wrecked. So that should be the approach people should be having.

I was looking at this was back in November. I was looking at the **MSTR MNAV** right multiple to net asset value and I saw this pattern that people are exiting **MSTR** and if Saylor can't buy Bitcoin who's going to buy Bitcoin. I think **MSTR** is a good proxy to Bitcoin demand at least from the speculative retail side. If you just look at the right side of this chart it resembles what happened last bare market.

Let's be real. If you look at the dates here, on December 2021, the summer of 2022, this was a period where you just did not want to be a participant in crypto, just hold cash, maybe dollar cost average. Bitcoin was over 100K at the time. So just get the hell out.

There was also this pattern where the **MSTR** to Bitcoin ratio was breaking down back in September of last year. What are the reasons to own **MSTR**? To get levered Bitcoin exposure. So when that's no longer happening, Saylor is just borrowing money. He's summing **MSTR** to raise cash. He's supposed to I thought cash was trash, and now he's building a cash reserve. It makes no sense.

When that happened September 2022 or 2025, that was literally around the market top. I'll talk about what's happening with **Bitmine** and Tom Lee and **Eid** afterwards. Part one of the short thesis was **MSTR** is cooked and now part two of the short thesis is **Bitmine** is cooked. Once you acknowledge that these **DATs** are the marginal buyers I think navigating crypto becomes a lot easier.

Of course everything is down so bad that maybe not this is not that useful anymore. There's no one buying crypto outside of these **DATs**. So what we should have done is buy when they're buying and as soon as they start losing momentum just get the hell out. It becomes fairly simple.

I've been recommending people to not buy altcoins because altcoins cannot bottom until Bitcoin or ETH does not bottom. It's really hard to predict these things, but I generally think that most altcoins are not worth anything. So when Bitcoin's going down, they're all going to come down. So just get out, raise cash and then buy when there's blood in the streets which might be happening now.

I posted back in October that this is the path for altcoins in the next 6 to 12 months. I'm not really sure where we are. Maybe we're in the ultimate wreck phase or the ultimate rector phase or the annihilation phase. I'm not sure if we're in this cretaceous paleo gene extinction event. Maybe that's coming soon this week, next month. I have no idea.

I do think that we are probably closer to the bottom than the top. That's kind of how I'm approaching markets, but I'll talk about more about that later. Generally, this is a good rule of thumb you should take with you for the next cycle. Where does the old come from? People talk about Ethereum is bullish because of stable coins. The stable coin market cap is going up.

I think altcoins are a good leading indicator for Ethereum fundamentals because where does a stable coin yield come from? It comes from altcoins. I farm an altcoin, I dump it. That's my yield. So when the price of altcoins go down, the yield comes down. You should expect the stable coin market cap expansion to slow down. If that happens, watch out below.

When you're paying exorbitant asset valuations for things like Ethereum, you have to bet on growth. So when you know that there's no longer going to be growth, at least in the short to medium term, get out. This is the type of negative reflexivity that takes time to play out and I'm not sure when it's going to stop, but these things are I think accelerating.

Even me, most of my net worth has been in crypto over the last five to six years, but recently I have been withdrawing some cash just because I just don't having money on chain doesn't feel right. It kind of feels gross. The time will come to redeploy, but maybe that's not now.

This is I call this trickle down dumpomics. People celebrate oh ETH is not even down that much. ETH is down 20% and altcoins down 50%. That's relative strength. It just takes time for these things to play out. When altcoins dump Ethereum will just eventually fall. Even the great giants will fall and you can kind of see this in the stable coin market cap where it's been over the last 30 days it's been down.

I would expect this to be a bullish chart over the next 10 years and it'll be up only. Before I talk about altcoins, this is the USDC total circulation. It has been coming down recently. We've had the most USDC withdrawals or destruction in market cap meaning people are off ramping USDC to fiat since March 2023.

I was kind of thinking about this and I noticed, so this is on Kraken on centralized exchanges that USDC is trading at a premium to Tether. Usually this doesn't happen. I think 90 to 99% of the time USDT trades at a premium to USDC, meaning that if you want to convert your USDC to USDT, you'll lose some money.

Recently, if you're converting USDT to USDC, you actually lose money. I think this is because it's a lot easier to off-ramp USDC to fiat than Tether. So people are just swapping Tether to USDC because they want to get the hell out of crypto. Can you blame them? Not really.

If you think about simple supply demand dynamics, what happens when the supply of tokens are going down or going up, let's say, from investor unlocks, token emissions, mining, whatever, supply of tokens in crypto is always going up. So the supply curve is shifting to the right. What happens when the demand curve also shifts to the left, meaning less demand. More supply, less demand. Price has to come down even if the number of stable coins in circulation remains flat. Simple math, simple economics. I'm sure you learned this in college, in high school.

That being said, maybe we're closer to the bottom than the top. So why do I keep shorting Ethereum? This goes into part two of my thesis. Part one was **MSTR** is cooked just things are going to come down and part two is Tom Lee and **Bitmine** is cooked. Tom Lee is propping up Ethereum once he is out of money ETH will converge to fair value which I think is lower.

Obviously Tom Lee he's this big K just pumping Ethereum. He bought 3.5% of supply pumped a lot. Of course **DATs** how they work is they buy a lot on the way up and then once price comes down they can't really buy that much because people lose money and you can kind of see his weekly ETH purchases. In November he was buying $2 to $400 million of ETH every single week. December he kept buying and then recently he 100 million a week is still a lot, but relative to what we had a few months ago, it's really not that much.

I think there's a lot of people that were betting on Tom Lee keep buying like Ethereum. But now that he's slowing down, the markets will start to price this in. This is **Bitmine's** cash position. So in Q4 of last year, he was raising cash. He was dumping basically his game plan is he shills **Bitmine** on TV, tells people to buy **Bitmine** because he'll make you rich. He'll dump **Bitmine** on you to raise cash and then he can do whatever he wants with it.

When you buy **Bitmine**, you're giving Tom Lee money. Hopefully he'll do the right thing. You're giving him trust, I suppose. I mentioned this in my last video, roughly a month and a half ago, where if he is buying this much ETH per week, then the market is going to flock to ETH for the perceived Tom Lee safety. Once it's clear he's out of money, ETH is going to dump.

I think this is where we are in you can look at people can talk about metals or the fed chair or CZ people can blame whatever they want but the reality is Tom Lee has been propping up Ethereum above fair value because Ethereum is still very expensive and now that he's running out of money we're just trying to figure out what the real value of ETH is. I don't know what it is but it's probably lower.

I talked about this Chinese whale, Garrett Bullish. He was long billions of ETH on chain. I don't really know what his thesis is. He posts a bunch of random tweets. It doesn't really make any sense, but I'm pretty sure that one of his thesis is that Tom Lee is buying. I was like, okay, these people are going to sell, right? Once Tom Lee is out of money, these people are going to sell either willingly or by forced liquidation. Yesterday he got liquidated. He still owns like a billion of ETH on chain by the way.

There's this other entity also in China they have this insane levered they put $500 million of ETH as collateral. They borrowed a billion of USDC and tether and they bought a billion of ETH. They're deeply underwater and today this morning they started depositing some ETH to Binance. I don't know what's going to happen to them. Is this guy going to get liquidated? I'm not sure. We'll find out.

I've been following this guy's tweets. He says he has a bunch of cash, so he's safe, but who knows? Maybe he's lying. I don't know. We'll find out. The thing is in crypto, you never run out of sellers. Lower prices always create more sellers because a lot of people have very little conviction in the things they own. They just buy stuff because they think it's going to go up and then once it goes down, it's like, okay, what's the fundamental value? What's the fundamental value of these tokens? I have no idea. All right, get the hell out of here.

I think we're in this capitulation phase or we're approaching this panic capitulation phase. I'm not sure how low we'll go, but I think there's enough momentum to take us lower.

Anyways, I do want to talk about Tom Lee because I've been basically my one of my predictions this year was that Tom Lee is going to become a villain. I kind of predicted what's going to happen to Tom Lee and how much he's going to be paid and his behavior. I do want to talk about this because I got this spot on and it's kind of funny if you really think about it. If you're if you're holding Ethereum or **Bitmine**, it's not funny, but I think objectively, if you just own Bitcoin or something, this is hilarious.

So, I do want to talk about this. In my last video, I did mention that Tom Lee is incentivized to ape a lot of money into Ethereum. Not his money, his other people's money into Ethereum because there's a cash bonus that he could be eligible for like for $15 million. He is also less incentivized to buy ETH once he's close to his 5% target because **Bitmine**, all he's been saying is, hey, we're going to own 5% of Ethereum, we're already at 3.5%.

So, the closer he gets to his goal, maybe the more bearish it is because you have to start pricing in the fact that he's going to stop buying at some point and who knows, he's going to invest in other random things. January 15th, I was talking about this in my last video. If you like the orange part, sir holders can vote whether he gets his special performance-based compensation. I know the text is small here, but basically he was eligible for a $15 million upfront payment for running **Bitmine** essentially. He takes other people's money and then he does he buys ETH and then he got paid $15 million.

On the January stockholders vote, all four all four proposals passed. Number four, U chairman performancebased comp. Yes. So, he got his $15 million. What did I say? He's going to be incentivized to pump ETH into the state. Ethereum topped when he got his $15 million. This is crazy.

Also on January 15th, he invested $200 million into Mr. Beast. This is literally what happened. **Bitmine** was announced on June 30th when ETH was $2,500. Then he just took people's money, just piled into ETH. He sent ETH 2X. By the way, I have nothing bad against Tom Lee. I think he is deserving of this bonus. I mean, he sent ETH 2X. That's crazy. He's definitely deserving of that bonus.

Anyways, he sent ETH 2X and then over time, he buys less. He got his $50 million bonus on January 15th and then he just decides to give Mr. Beast $200 million for chocolate bars and YouTube content. Now the Tom Lee **Bitine** pump has entirely retraced. Think about that. Tom Lee in the span of six to seven months bought 3.5% of ETH supply and price is lower which just means that he just created this generational exit liquidity event for ETH holders.

I've talked to a lot of ETH holders in the past few weeks to few months and they say that my videos have helped them get out of the psychological bag holder bias of holding ETH. I talked to someone's like yeah I've been holding ETH for 10 10 years and I I sold at 3K because I just can't take this anymore. This is part of the timebased capitulation where people are suddenly or slowly realizing what ETH is and it's ETH is great technology and I love Ethereum from a user perspective from a human moral perspective, but the asset itself is not that great that's all it is.

People just kind of get too euphoric when things go up and if you just kind of understand why ETH went up ETH went up because Tom Lee and now ETH is going down because Tom Lee is no longer buying. It's really that simple in my opinion. **DATs** pumped ETH way above fair value. Now that the bubble has popped, we are trying to figure out where fair value for ETH is. My opinion is it's lower. ETH is right now like a $280 billion asset. I don't really know how anyone can really justify that.

I'm never going to call a bottom on ETH. Because I first of all, I don't know and I don't really care. Shorting ETH is a great way to form perexes, which I've been doing. You literally can't make this up. He aped ETH into his bonus and now he's diversifying into chocolate bars. It's kind of funny if you think about it.

The other part of my thesis, the 5% part. I listened to this annual meeting like three times. It was pure brain rot. I lost some brain cells. This guy, this Asian guy was like, "Hey, you know what happens after you get to 5%. You know, can you go to 10%, because I want you to keep pumping my Ethereum bags." This is a transcript of what he said, but basically he said that once we get to 5%, we'll probably stop buying. He didn't say that, but he basically alluded to that because he doesn't want too much influence on the network.

He doesn't want to become too big and he wants to keep Ethereum a decentralized network. Basically the closer he gets to 5%. The more the market has to start pricing the fact that maybe the Mr. Beast play ends up working and then he makes billions of dollars which I'm not even against the Mr. Beast investment. I'm bullish on Mr. Beast and I'd rather buy $200 million worth of Mr. Beast equity than Ethereum.

That could be a good decision, but I know that doesn't make any sense. Why do you hold **Bitmine**? Because you want leveraged ETH exposure, but now he's buying Mr. Beast equity, there's some narrative violation there. I think that is problematic. I talked about this concept of Tom Lee becoming a villain where imagine, I said this a month and a half ago because ETH goes lower, retail investors get wrecked because **Bitmine** is going to go lower and he's rich.

Tom Lee to become a billion because he's been saying, this is literally the January 15th meeting. He calls himself the number one strategist for retail investors, which has been kind of true. I guess it's factually true, but it sounds like an egotistical thing to say here. He's been spewing nonsense. Does anyone really believe in this? Even if you're a bullish ETH, even if you like Ethereum, what is this based off of? It doesn't make any sense.

I think what people need to realize is that I don't think Tom Lee is a bad person, but he's a capitalist. He's not an ETH Maxi. He's not like a Saylor. At least with Saylor, he's crazy. He probably snorts cocaine and buys Bitcoin every day. I can respect that. He actually believes in what he's saying. But Tom Lee, he's not an ETH Maxi. He's a capitalist. He runs a research firm where he makes a lot of money. He has his own ETF. U makes a bunch of money from that. He's also getting paid to do these talks essentially. He basically gets paid to tell people what they want to hear essentially.

If ETH goes to zero, obviously his reputation is going to tarnish and ETH is not going to go to zero. Come on, what is this? He's down six billion just piling money into Ethereum. It's really crazy if you think about it. You start to notice the people turning on him because in December he said Bitcoin to 180K by the end of January, ETH to 8K by the end of the month. People are like, hey, you lied to us, what's the deal here?

If you listen to these Tom Lee interviews on YouTube, these get like insane amount of views because retail investors love him. He's been mostly right for the most part. If you look at the comment section, it's like, hey, what happened here? I think he's I don't even know what's going on in his mind, honestly. Either way, Tom Lee, the people are turning on him. What happens to **Bitmine** if people sell? Because the most retail or most holders of **Bitmine** are retail investors. So if they capitulate what happens.

Remember this chart where I said that when the **MSDR** to Bitcoin ratio broke down get out of get out of Bitcoin get out of crypto a similar thing might be happening to **Bitmine** to ETH ratio. There is narrative violation, where he's not even like this ETH maxi. He's basically you're just giving Tom Lee money hoping he makes a lot of money for you. If the reason for you owning **Bitmine** is to get levered ETH exposure, like it's not it. If the reason you own **Bitmine** is, you think Tom Lee can make more money if you give him money, that's fine.

If this breaks down, who knows? Maybe it gets worse. I have no idea. I'm not making a prediction, but I'm just making an observation. When this thing broke down, just get out of Bitcoin. When this breaks down, who knows? Maybe it has more downside. I have no idea. I will talk about my portfolio strategy moving forward. I'm getting less bearish over time. Obviously because price keeps going down, but I'll talk about that later.

Before I talk about portfolio, I do want to dunk on these **DATs** because if you've been following me, I hate these **DATs**. They're all scams. They're garbage. I want them erased off the face of the earth. I think they've done more damage to the industry than people like to think. I think what happened is a bunch of VCs, they couldn't make money buying altcoins, investing in founders. So they just found all these shell shell companies, gave them money, tried to pump these things, but now they're just done. They're just done.

Also, who wants to buy crypto when these garbage **DATs** are still operating? They kind of frontloaded all the demand for crypto in Q3, Q4, and now they're no longer buying. It just represents overhead supply like it's a supply overhang. It's kind of a drag to the industry. Ezilla, look at this, complete scam. Imagine you're a retail investor, and people are saying, "Oh, ETSs are great." It looks like this. Guess what? They sold ETH to buy jet engines. This is actually true. 12 million I mean who knows maybe jet engines are a better investment than ETH maybe, but what's going on here.

Basically the team doesn't want to unwind this DAT or Ezilla because they can just keep paying themselves salaries and stock options so now they're trying to figure out what the hell to do with this money because they don't even like the operators of Eidilla I doubt they believe in Eid anyways they're just there to make money and now they're buying jet engines Complete scam. Sharp link. I don't think Sharp Link is a scam, but it is funny to see that every week they kind of post these things about, hey, we're accumulating more ETH for investors every day because we staked ETH.

Anyone with an IQ of over 50 can stake ETH. That's nothing special. If you look at their dashboard at the bottom right here, they see their ETH gain is negative billion. They bought a bunch of ETH at $3,600 and now they're down a billion and now they're cucked. They're screwed and all they can talk about is staking rewards because they're out of money. They can't do anything. It's kind of sad.

DeFi Dev Corp, this is a Salana D. Complete scam. A few days ago, they kind of posted this robot doing TA on Salana as it's about to break down. This is bearish. I don't know what's happening here. Hey, GM Soul Enjoy yours as what is this. This is complete scam. Now they're launching memecoins. Literally they did this a week ago. They launched a memecoin on Bonk Fun called don't buy this. What is this. It's purged like it's gross.

I'm not even proud to be a part of this industry as long as these **DATs** exist. I don't know what's going to happen to these things cuz there's dozens of these, they own all these coins. They're down like 50%. What are they going to do? I feel like we can't move forward as an industry until these things get sacrificed or purged. I'm not sure what that's going to end up being. Is there going to be some activist campaign to redeem the assets, but how does that even work?

I don't even know, but I feel like crypto can only bottom once these get sacrificed. I don't even know what sacrifice means, but I just want them erased off the face of the earth. Honestly, if that means they just sell all their crypto assets, and then they the leadership team retires, and they go to Dubai or something, I think that's fine, honestly. Just get them out of here. Send prices lower so we can bottom. It just grosses me out.

Anyways, I think I'm okay. I'm done being negative. I'm starting to become more optimistic. I know right now it feels terrible. It feels like crypto is like a failed experiment. Who knows, maybe it is. I have no idea. I can't predict the future, but I do want to talk about my portfolio strategy because the past four months or so, I've been just primarily short Ethereum and some. But I am trying to in the future I will probably shift the strategy to a net-long approach. I'll talk about that.

Few days ago I post feeling optimistic about crypto for the first time in a long time. Maybe there's a vibe shift here and the market started nuking immediately. People thought that I was buying stuff. I do think that it's hard to own altcoins when ETH is like 300 billion. I'm not even sure where it's at right now. I'm sure it's moving up and down, but I think when it comes to certain alts or certain businesses, I think we're finally at a period where we can start justifying owning these things.

It's hard because if ETH goes down, then all these alts go down. At some point, I think it's kind of like throwing the baby out with the bad water. No one wants to own alts. Everyone's selling alts, but some alts are probably going to be good buys in the next few to weeks, few weeks to months. Van Spencer was like, he's ready to buy ETH again. No, if you've been watching my videos, you know that I'm probably not going to buy ETH ever again.

If ETH wicks to like three digits or something, maybe I'll buy ETH as a trade. My entire argument that I've been laying out for my viewers is that Ethereum is great tech, but it's not a great investment. I think that's part of maturity. I think over time people start to realize this. The market's getting smarter over time. I'm not going to value the game, because I like two things. I like making money. I like not losing money. Buying Ethereum does not satisfy either of these coins.

My optimism stems from the fact that if you look at Hyperlquid in HIPP3, tokenized equity and whatnot, their metrics have been going straight up and to the right. Mostly around metals and equities and whatnot. It does get pretty sad recently just because there's nothing to look forward to in crypto. It's like oh yeah, the team is scamming. Cool. We knew this already. Oh, the VCs are dumping. Oh, Tom Lee is out of money, nothing is positive, the past three months.

When I start to see these teams keep building things and get traction and the token benefit, it made me more optimistic. Personally, I don't own Hype right now. I own the Hyperlid NFT because I just didn't sell it, but I think we've kind of been conditioned over the last 3 to four months that altcoins go down only. When I saw hype go up on good fundamentals, I was like, you know what? Maybe hype has bottomed. Hey, maybe some altcoins have bottomed. Maybe I can start looking into these altcoins.

That's kind of the mindset shift that I've been entering where yes, I've been shorting ETH and that's been great for me, but at some point I I can't just live life like that. At the end of the day, bears sound smart, but bulls make money. Sometimes bear make more money but usually bulls make a lot more money and I've talked about what I expect moving forward is a K-shaped recovery for markets where coins will where coins that recover might be Bitcoin and coins with buybacks and then coins that go down will be overvalued infra which I think are like L1's L2s whatever coins with unlocks and just general garbage and I think that's kind of what we're seeing now.

I think the industry is maturing. The coins that will recover coming out of this are going to be coins that actually introduce value cruel to the token. I know right people the VCs have been saying this for the past four months and then everything has been done only. At some point, prices valuations will come low enough where I can justify. I have all this cash. I made money shorting. I have to redeploy this cash somewhere. I'm not sure if that's going to be stocks or gold or crypto. My expertise, I think, is in crypto. I'm starting to look on the long side.

Again, I'm not going to go through this. I posted this in my Discord a few days ago. Basically the idea is, okay, I've been shorting ETH to try to capture this 20 to 30% move. We had a crazy pump in hype. At some point, the riskreward of buying coins and optimizing for long-term capital gains might become better than trying to PBP Tom Lee in the order books. Which I've been doing. The last four months, all I've been doing is studying Tom Lee and figuring out what happens to Ethereum.

Instead of just fully being fully stabled up and shorting it aggressively, which is what I'm doing now, maybe I shift to something like a 75% cash, 25% spot coins, and then 10% short ETH or something like that. I think that's going to present better life EV, expected value. I feel like I've kind of fried my brain recently just because I've just been studying Tom Lee so hard and I don't honestly I don't really care for Tom Lee. I just have to study him because he's kind of driving the markets at least for ETH. That's not something I really want to do moving forward.

At the bottom left here you'll see some coins I've been looking into. I don't own these honestly. General portfolio strategy is I think markets are currently in some time time based capitulation. Ethereum is always going to be overvalued. Not always, but usually overvalued. Funding is positive 90% of the time. So shorting it is a great way to hedge your spot holdings and also farm perexes. I'm not sure, basically idea is I'm asking myself what is the crypto version of Carvana?

Carvana is one of those things that went to $400 in 2021 because whatever. It went to $5 in a year. It was brutal. Now it's basically back to at all-time highs. I'm sure something like this exists in crypto where something is down 90%, everyone thinks it's over and then in the next two to three years it just hits new highs again. Our job should be find this. A lot easier said than done. What is the $8 salon moment for crypto right now? I have no idea.

Instead of focusing all my energy into shorting Ethereum into the ground, now I'm going to shift my energy into finding the next Carvana. I talked about some of these coins here. I'll talk about them. Obviously, hype is one. SER is interesting, and by the way, I'm not showing this. I don't own any of this. Who knows? Maybe the best coins to invest in are the ones that will launch next year. I have no idea. Still, this thing's been holding up fairly well. The fundamental metrics have been doing okay.

If Bitcoin goes down, this thing goes down. They're growing as a business, so maybe that's kind of interesting. There's some divergence between fundamentals and price maybe. Obviously this is a lending thing. So, if Bitcoin goes down, then the demand to borrow goes down. It is reflexive. That's one pendle I've been looking into. Chart looks terrible. There's no buyers. It's really sad. I use Pendle often to farm stable coins. They're trading tokconomics. Their new product line called Boros, a way to trade funding rates, hitting new all-time highs in OI, open interest. I was like, okay, that's kind of interesting. Maybe if this hits like a dollar or something, I just buy this and then stake it and then I wait like two years and maybe it's higher. I don't know.

I've bought a in the past to

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