Bitcoin’s Back, Venezuela Regime Change, Memecoins, 2026 Mega Trends

My take is that this is the new all-time high rod that if you just hold on to your seat that you're probably going to be able to sell 125k at some point in the next six weeks. Today's episode is brought to you by Kraken Pro. You'll hear more about them later in today's episode. As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk terms and conditions apply.

Oh man, Jonah, this has been a great start to the year. I have to say everything is going really well except my prediction that meme coins were not going to stage recovery in 2026. However, when I said that, you disagreed with me to give you credit where credit is due. You said I wouldn't just short it going into the new year. I would wait for a pop and then I disagreed with you wholeheartedly mainly because I was super bullish on Bitcoin and I just know that when you get this massive draw down in altcoins that you can't you can never short if you're bullish the market because you're going to get these like ridiculous rallies, which is kind of what happened.

But I think like the point still stands which is that in 2026 I think that meme coins will probably not do particularly well in aggregate obviously that means that there will be periods of time where they do really well like Pepe going up 70%, which is what I was scared of which is why I said hey Jonah I don't know maybe you want to wait for the pop before you get all bearish on memecoins.

I mean, the only, to my credit, I responded, "Yeah, you're probably right to that." So, and I didn't short any because I was too lazy. So, now, do we get short these things? They just freaking No, I'm not ready yet just because I'm not ready to call the end of this move. I think that we've consolidated in this 85 to 90 area for such a long time now. And this looks very similar to the previous bottoms that Bitcoin held.

I think that we're in for a ride. I think that the equity markets are in for a ride. Gold is in for a ride. We are off to a really, really great start this year. And the only thing that you probably shouldn't be is sidelined. And I think that the move has just started, which is why last week I talked about buying these end of January 100k calls because I was pretty convicted that we were going to get a good start to the new year and seems to be what's happening.

And so kind of loaded up on those calls. Basically, they've doubled so far, but I think that there's more to go. I think that Bitcoin could easily tag 100 105 at which point I'd be reducing a little bit. But I think the structure of the market and everything that's happened over the last seven days. It's very good to see that open interest which basically means the number of leverage traders in the system. They're not banging the drum and getting in and they're not getting over their skis right now.

Funding rates are reasonably muted. And then also just broader risk appetite seems to be back. Gold continues gold continues to rise and for the first time sort of we're going up together with the rest of the market which tells me that the sellers that we were so scared of those angry aggressive mean people that kept selling our beautiful Bitcoin to zero they seem to have run out. And I'm pretty I don't think we get more supply activation until you get above at least 100K. So that's my general take and I know that's not that far away really.

Like my take is that this is the new all-time high rod that if you just hold on to your seat that you're probably going to be able to sell 125k at some point in the next six weeks.

Yeah, I think so too. I mean, that's something that both of us did predict on the ThousandX podcast that Bitcoin would have a rip roar in January because the selling's done. People re-engage, they sit down, they invest, and you know, Bitcoin's up 8% in since the start of the year. It's been four and a half daysish. And that's a big move. And I agree with you. I think it's just the beginning. I think this is the run to fresh all-time highs.

I'm fully invested as far as Bitcoin is concerned. I maintain a small crypto of my total crypto portfolio. It's mostly Bitcoin and then I maintain a small allocation to trade. Last year despite winning on Hyperlid, that trading allocation was down. But, you know, this year I think I'm going to start expanding that trading allocation if we end up in some kind of like alt season for the alts that I like.

I do not like memes. I think they're not going to outperform Bitcoin over the course of the year in general. I still want to sell this pop. I just don't know how or when. So, I'm going to be monitoring it closely. And I think that if we do get a rally in Bitcoin to the all-time highs, it'll probably just cascade through to ETH and then some alt, but not most, the way that it usually does. And on that rally, you'll have fantastic opportunities to short high FTV, lowflat, VC unlock coins versus Bitcoin. those pairs will will look good.

So, I think that that playbook will work. Before we get too deep in, you know, and it's also like not all meme coins have performed like, okay, yes, with my least favorite coin ever is up 40%. Actually, you get a better answer asking the thousandx terminal this question than than chat GPT because it's connected to all the sources and it's cryptonative. Pepe is the big one. It's up 70%. SHIB is up 30%. You just ask, hey, what's the year-to- date return on these things? Fartcoin is up 33%.

So it's basically like you know after you would have lost 90% or 80% being long meme versus BTC from the the probably the Trump coin moment until the end of the year. You know they've outperformed Bitcoin by 20. If you just gone all in on Pepe sure you would have made 70%. But like on average the memes again at the at the pico low. But still, you know, I think I think the way that you the way that you run this is you basically say, "Okay, uh look, you never you never want to get short anything generally when when Bitcoin's consolidating at lows, right? Like if you're if you're bullish if you're bullish on Bitcoin, you're kind of you're kind of saying, "Hey, uh a rising tide lifts lifts all boats. It's very very difficult to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin is going to rip up to 125K and the rest of the market is going to do is going to do poorly."

Really uh the way that you think about these things and what I was trying to articulate on the last podcast is you you have to you have to wait for the move. you have to wait for the pop to play out because over the course of 2026, what I think you're probably not going to see is is is you're not going to see like a crazy crazy crazy memecoin mania with the old meme coins. It's probably all the new meme coins that that that end up doing well. That that was that was really the point of of what I what I was trying to say on the last podcast is that right now I think I think you can focus on on your on your large caps. I think you can focus on your BTC and I think honestly the highest hit rate trade for me is just that we're getting like you know when we were trading 87 like banging the drum on we're going to get a strong move and we're going to get it quickly and that's what's happening right now uh is that Bitcoin we look we're we're just breaking above 94 here.

Basically I think if you are if you're trying to make maximum money in in in 20 in 2026, uh, you know, Bitcoin calls, gold calls, uh, you know, palladium, it's crazy. We were talking about it on the last on last podcast. We got like that, we got that tw It's like a Bitcoin like move. It was an altcoin like move in in three days. Nasty. This thing drops down 25% off the highs. And guess what? It bounces it bounces right back up up up 14%. I mean, I think that's just that's just telling you what's going on, which is that um Ray Dalio put out a great piece this morning, which I think everyone should everyone should read.

And basically the core premise of this is something that we've been you know, we've been talking about for a while, which is that the dollar is just getting destroyed. From basically every angle, the dollar is getting destroyed. That hard hard currencies commodities and are outperforming everything you know forget forget even the the US stock market one point that Dalio makes which I think is very very true is that everyone's talking about how AI is eating the world and how AI is doing really well and yet somehow the S&P is massively underperforming underperforming gold and so the question is like what's really driving what is the real red herring that argument. That's a red herring.

Hold on. What I'm trying to say is that what's the real driving force in today's world? The real driving force is devaluation of currencies. And yes, AI is a huge driving force. But the bigger bubble, which is why gold was up 60% last year and equity markets were up 20 regardless of whatever AI is doing is the real thing that's happening right now is that there's a massive devaluation of currencies around the world. And this is probably going to continue throughout 2026. And that's really good for your for for Bitcoin. That's really good for gold. It's really good for silver. It's really good for platium. It's really great for uranium, which I've been beating the drum on for a bit.

I'm ready. I'm ready to get back into uranium. I I'd sold out a little bit, but now I'm ready to get back in. I think my maybe I sold out too early, but I'm I'm ready to get back in this thing.

Yeah, I don't think I don't think you're too late on anything except gold. If if you had a clean slate, the only thing that I would say is probably not the safest buy here of the of what you just mentioned is gold. I think Bitcoin's about to go ballistic. I think that the stock market's going to continue going ballistic. The reason why I said it's a red herring your argument about the stock market rallying less than gold is that dollarization impacts both gold and the stock market. They're both USD denominated.

And AI is not the only thing driving the stock market. When you talk about the stock market, you're talking about, you know, the S&P 500. AI has like secondary or tertiary like very indirect effects on most of those companies like maybe 450 of them are just like at best it you know the people inside of those companies are a little smarter because of chat GPT and maybe a few middle managers get fired but like most of the AI gains really aggregate to like Nvidia, Google, you know the companies that rallied even more than gold did last year. So, I think the whole AI thing versus gold, like you'd need to you'd need to look at a more pure play than the entire stock market to make that comparison apples to apples.

However, you know, I do agree with your general premise and I I don't think the point you're you're making is like invalid or anything. I just wanted to clarify it.

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As far as memecoins, one final thought on that. While you were talking, I generated an image since Nicholas Maduro lives in Brooklyn now, which is pretty cool. I generated Yeah, maybe maybe I should go visit him. I generated an AI image of hipster Williamsburg Nicholas Maduro. What are you doing with your time? And it doesn't take much time. It takes less than one second to create this slop now. And what I was thinking is like if this were 2024, I could create a hipster Maduro meme out of this image and probably send it to like 10 million or 20 million with a podcast, but that's just not happening anymore. So that's kind of what I mean when I say that that the memecoin space is a little bit [ __ ].

I mean to be fair like even like I don't know because I didn't actually check which pro probably should have because there's a there's a period of time Joan I don't know if you if you remember this at all but there was like a real like genuine period of time where uh you could just like monitor world events and then if anything happened you would immediately go to deck screener and you would look for tickers related to that thing and you would inevitably find some sort of coin that had run to 50 million because everyone in their mother was gambling on this [ __ ].

I mean, dude, like the the So, that's done. Like Peanut the Squirrel, right? You remember that [ __ ] Oh, that that peanut was amazing. Slurf all sorts of things. Yeah. Like look I mean Maduro like you go this is this is the state of the trenches, man. You go look up Maduro and the best thing that I can find is like a couple million market cap. I mean that's pretty boring. What are you guys doing out there? But yeah, that's what I mean.

And basically like if whiff is up 38% with Bitcoin up 8%. That's just that's just ALGO on ALGO violence. That's basically like whiff has established itself with a big enough market cap that some correlation bot is probably like okay it should be you know it should be roughly 4 and a halfx beta to Bitcoin. So let me just like bid it when it's up less than that beta and offer it when it's up more. But, you know, that's only sustainable for like very short illquid periods of time. Over the long run, all of this stuff is, you know, bag holders will try to get their liquidity when it goes up. And so, that's why I that's why I still like shorting this stuff. There's just apparently apparently it's not as easy as I thought it would be. There's a little bit of technique to it.

But, should we talk about one? There's we and we we've talked about this before. remember when I was talking about how to this this was a this was an episode a long time ago, but it was really like how do you how do you think about shorting things in general is you have to be you always have to be very tactical with it. And generally what you want to do is you you want to start shorting these things after they've made some sort of significant imp like an impulse driven move off of some some level because that type of move is what draws in the old sellers, right? And what draws in the people that maybe they don't want to sell off the lows, but if something's up 60 70% off the lows, now people are really willing to get in and they're like saying, "Okay, well now this is my chance to finally exit this this asset." And that I think is probably what's going to happen.

I mean, like go go go go look go look at World Coin. I don't think that no matter no matter how much Sam Altman tries to try tries to pump that thing like if this gets you know let's let's look at like let's look at previous rallies off off lows. World coin up you know 200% off the lows once goes upund 160% off the lows another time. Right now we're about 30% off the lows. So maybe you want to wait until it gets back up to like 125 and then that's the [ __ ] greatest short of a lifetime, right? Then then then then you short that thing against Bitcoin and and you're and you're sitting very pretty. I mean, I don't think that thing's moving particularly hard after after that, right?

So, it's it's all about like shorting at the end of the day, it's it's all it's all about setups now. And getting long is all about everything in trading at the end of the day is about the entry. It's like like where where can you where where can you actually hold this thing? Where can you actually hold this trade? That's why that's why I think you know you should probably move faster rather than slower if you're sidelined on Bitcoin right now just because I think we're the market structure here looks very good and it tells me hey things might be moving pretty quickly this is going to look like a generational entry in in 10 years I I really believe Bitcoin's going to a million dollars yeah may in 10 years yeah of course Jonah well I mean we're talking we're talking about one month this is this is this is gonna be this is gonna be an entry for one month I think it's going to be uh a grand slam in a month and a generational wealth creation event over a 10-year time frame. Let me put it that way. I'm I'm very bullish.

I really am. I I do not understand why this would go down. Interestingly enough, let we should probably carve out a bit of time to talk about Venezuela and Iran because there are big geopolitical shifts happening and it it's going to matter for digital assets as well as other commodities that potentially there's a trading opportunity on. I I will say this is rumor not fact. Apparently Venezuela had stockpiled quite a stack of BTC and I saw some you know I knew I knew that like Trafigura allegedly was moving cargos of Venezuelan around sanctions with at least I'd heard rumors. Who knows if they've actually done it and and taking payment in Tether or Bitcoin.

Like I would not be surprised if I I know Maduro has a lot of gold. That's famous that that's like there's a whole history behind that that goes back a hundred years with the United States involvements in Venezuela, you know, early during the 20th century. But like for Bitcoin, I think they've been stacking it and now the US probably has access to that reserve or is or is, you know, torturing people to get it and to get the seed phrase. And basically there are some questions like will it get sold? Will it get rolled into the US strategic Bitcoin reserve? Will it get put into escrow? I think I I would be shocked if they didn't just make the create the foundation of the SPR with seized Bitcoin.

And so I think we could see that's that's sort of the whole point, right? The whole point of the SPR of the strategic Bitcoin reserve is so that in situations like this, you are able to accumulate that Bitcoin and put it kind of like, you know, shove it away. think Venezuela, it's very, very, very likely, again, yes, this this is rumor, but I think this is pretty well substantiated, that they were heavy in the Bitcoin mining space for a decent amount of time. Obviously, they have access to extremely cheap energy. They can mine Bitcoin at effectively zero cost. And so, obviously, I think that as a sanctioned country, that's what they're going to be doing.

And the the rumors, that's probably what they have been doing, right? is they've been accumulating substantial amounts of Bitcoin not only on the open market but most likely through through Bitcoin mining with their with their low cost of of energy. And so what that tells me and I think this is actually perhaps one of the reasons for for for Bitcoin rallying is that when you take down a narco state like that, you probably remove some source of supply, right? These states are very likely using their Bitcoin mining as ways to fund their operations. they're probably a net seller, not a net buyer of Bitcoin would be my guess.

And so taking down Venezuela and taking down Maduro and sort of subsuming their entire operations into a country that does not sell any Bitcoin and that does not need Bitcoin to fund their operations, it's probably net beneficial for BTC. This would be doubly true if Iran is if Iran goes through regime change. my personal opinion, if Iran goes through regime change, you probably want to start buying a ton of Bitcoin calls. And that's kind of like like the whole point of this podcast is us sitting sitting here talking to each other trying to like logic our way to specific trades that we might want to take given the future.

Right? So now you know, hey, Bitcoin did really well after Venezuela got taken got taken offline. Could have something to do with the fact that they were Bitcoin mining and supplies being taken offline. Iran's actually an even bigger player when it comes to this. They they it's known that they use Bitcoin to finance their operations. It's that's why it's half the reason that Hamas had billions of dollars as Binance is is because of Iran's love for love for Bitcoin. So my take on this is that if you if you do see regime change in Iran, there'll probably be a delayed reaction from Bitcoin and that gives you the listener the the the time to actually probably go accumulate some calls. possibly even shortdated stuff, right? Like a week, two weeks out, maybe you get a five, six% pop in BTC.

So, you know, I want I want Iran to fall for a variety of reasons, but this this one this one this one would be good. This one this this one's up there. You know, this one anybody can be happy. Even if you're a even if you're a lover of the Ayatollah and a a Shia fundamentalist, you can get excited about being long Bitcoin and the Ayatollah is falling because Bitcoin will rally.

But yes, I agree with you. I think well just going back to your situation your your conversation about Venezuela the power generation in Venezuela is mostly hydro and then the rest of it is covered by this like very you know ga basically hydro is a good way to generate power but the most efficient way to generate electricity is through gas burning gas in a turbine natural gas one of the least efficient ways to do it is to burn crude oil or fuel oil like this is an ecologically catastrophic ultra inefficient way to make make electricity and you'll see it in like places with way too much crude like Saudi Arabia where it's getting phased out because they're smart.

But in Venezuela they they just you know kind of that's what they do to cover the gap. And Venezuela was still a place where there were like rolling blackouts and power was mismanaged. But absolutely Bitcoin mining was going on both by individuals who are getting cheap government subsidized hydro power. Probably just like mining it at their homes and using it to pay for their lives because the Venezuelan what's their currency unit? The peso just totally hyperinflated into worthlessness. And then the government was also probably using it to buy weapons and finance drug trade and do all sorts of other heinous reprehensible stuff.

So that selling is going to stop if Venezuela becomes a normal economy. And so that's probably bullish Bitcoin. Also, they were probably selling Bitcoin out of their strategic Bitcoin reserve to to fund whatever it is that they needed to, you know, bribes, payoffs, just to keep the keep the house of cards from falling. And that's that's all going to stop now, too. So there's just less selling pressure on the market. and the United States is probably going to tuck away that Bitcoin and never sell it. So, I think that that's that's a very bullish feature to the market is just not having like a motivated seller funding naroterrorism with with Bitcoin.

Now, should we talk about the oil situation there and what it means for crude oil and then go to Iran next? I think I think a lot of people had a lot of conflicting opinions on what was happening here because obviously there was the there there were there was the idea that okay well maybe the US comes into Venezuela and that leads to a short-term spike in oil because productions production is going to go down. The other the other way of thinking about it is that if the if the US comes into Venezuela and over time actually manages to open it up and US companies come in then production which has collapsed by like 60% of Venezuela because of lack of expertise in in extracting this heavy crude then maybe we go back to what it what it looked like before and then oil prices go down a ton.

But you had a really good take on X which I think maybe you can maybe you can walk through. Yeah. And feel free to ask any any questions because oil is very confusing and complicated and people just don't understand it. I saw a lot of like really really dumb suppositions about what Venezuela means for oil. I said that oil would rally on Monday and people were like you're crazy. This is the most bearish thing ever. Imagine being as stupid as Jonah. I may be a crypto lararper but I really know my stuff when it comes to oil. So I will definitely try to walk people through this. It's not intuitive.

So, Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves. What does that mean? It means that under Venezuela, there is more oil than than there is under any other country on Earth, which is crazy to think about. They have like something like tens of trillions of dollars worth of oil at today's prices sitting underground. People are like, "Oh my god, now it's all coming out. This is oil is going to zero." The answer is no, it's not. And here's why. There are a couple So, oil under the ground is worthless. It's a it's only the only even oil above ground is worthless until it gets refined into something that we can actually use like jet fuel or petroleum.

And even then gasoline and jet fuel are still useless until an internal combustion engine which is another kind of like mobile refinery refineses it into something useful called locomotion right or power in the case of Venezuela's super inefficient power plant. So basically there like a number of stages that have to be passed through in order for this under the ground oil to become valuable. And so basically Venezuela the world consumes about 105 million barrels of oil per day. A barrel holds 42 gallons. It's like a little more than waist high. It's, you know, it's a barrel. So 105 million of those get slurped up by refineries around the world every day.

And Venezuela currently produces about 1 million barrels a day. So less than 1% of the world's consumption that their domestic econom so then you have to ask yourself what matters for the price it's how much do they export right you know because they could consume all of it and internally and then Venezuela wouldn't matter but unfortunately Venezuela is such a a mismanaged disaster that they consume almost none of their oil and they export most of it so then what happens is okay so they export this oil it's like about a let's just say slightly under a million barrels a of exports to keep the math simple their historical maximum production was 3 to four million barrels a day.

So let's just say that they get back there. Their domestic econ what this the situation where they get back there is like the most bearish possible scenario is where Venezuela becomes the 51st state of the United States. Not saying this is going to happen but like for the sake of understanding the the boundary condition. Uh imagine Trump makes Venezuela the 51st state. You have American level. Highly highly doubt. Highly doubt. That would be that would be [ __ ] hilarious. It would be Imagine. So we have to explore them. Yeah. It's like Alaska, Hawaii, and Venezuela. And then the lower 48.

Um, basically that would be the most bearish. You have it would, you know, the geology of Venezuela is very complex. The oil, some of it's a solid at room temperature. You have to mix it with dilluent just to make it like consumable by a refinery. Um, the a lot of Venezuelan and you know, oil used to go to the Gulf Coast refining center, Texas, Louisiana, back in the day when that was just an easy source of oil. So all the refineries they were configured to consume heavy sour which means sulfuric complex oil but now obviously because of the explosion of shale in the Peran basin that's like ultra light sweet oil almost something called condensate which is like it's like a a it's like not even oil it's like it you don't it doesn't generate any tar or fuel oil it's like really really light.

So basically the refining system over the course of the last 15 20 years has reconfigured from being optimized to consume Venezuela like oil to being optimized to consume like the opposite type of oil light sweet. So you couldn't just throw a bunch of Venezuelan into the you know Gulf Coast refining system in America and expect it to work well. It would blow up every refinery and they would have all kinds of explosions and problems and outages. So it's it's like infrastructure. What people don't understand is is that unlike crypto where tokens and money just move around easily and everything's kind of quasi fungeible, the the physical commodities market is very different.

And unlike Saudi Arabia where you stick a a [ __ ] toothpick in the ground and oil comes out like Venezuela in order to restore production from its current million barrel a day threshold to you know the maximum historical from decades ago 3 to four million that would require years like uh it took Exxon like 5 to 10 years to explore the Guyana mega field nearby. It would probably take Venezuela minimum of two a maximum of 5 years to get them pumping 3 to four million againish. And in that scenario, Venezuela's economy in the 51st state scenario, Venezuela's economy is like consuming two million barrels a day because there's 30 plus million people living there. So then you exports basically go from 1 million a day currently to 2 million a day there. That's an increase of a million a day. It would move the needle. It's probably worth a couple bucks lower in flat price, but like it's not that big a deal.

And people just don't understand this. They see the the world's biggest proven oil reserves and think you're an idiot. They think it just magically comes above ground and and hits the market. People should more think of this like a bunch of oil is getting discovered on the moon. That's a more illustrative example because it's like how do you get it to the refineries on Earth, right? It may as well be on the moon. It's miles underground, right? And it's it's not easy oil. So basically that's the end of my rant and the the the final piece of this is like you know so it's a bit bearish long-term meh short term but the regime change thing I think what's more important is like what this means geopolitically so Trump did this to exact leverage over China because China consumes a lot of Venezuela and it's guaranteed supply China gets it at cheap prices because Venezuela couldn't sell it anywhere else because sanctions now those you know if that if Venezuelan oil hits the open market then that's more ways for Trump to be able to sanction oil if to prevent China as a chess move to prevent them from threatening Taiwan because they'll lose more access to oil which is critical for them. They don't produce enough nearly enough there.

China is the world's biggest oil importer. They have a lot of oil they have to get. And so if more of it is controlled by the United States, more of it can be taken away from China. More of their lifeline can be taken away if they do something the United States doesn't like. It also screws up the Russian refining arbitrage because Venezuela so mismanaged their refineries all went to [ __ ] So basically um Venezuela was exporting crude to Russia. Russia was refining it and then sending refined products back to Venezuela and other pieces. This screws up Russia's leverage over that. It makes it harder for Russia, China, and Iran to place weapons in the Western Hemisphere on America's doorstep. And the final piece is like if Trump has now proven that he's willing to literally just like send in the Delta Force commandos, which is so freaking badass, to like kidnap kidnap a guy who was leader of a country. That can happen to Ayatollah Kmeni too. And now that would be bearish oil. That Iran is a very different oil equation than Venezuela. That would be crazy bearish oil and probably pretty bullish Bitcoin.

I've got I've got a lot of thoughts, but let's hit the ad break and come back and then we'll talk about what the future of geopolitics and oil and Bitcoin look like.

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Oh man, like it's honestly I think you did a really great job outlining all of the different angles here. the the last part that you said which is that if if we can send in Delta Force to go remove to go remove what yes we say is not the legitimate leader but in reality is very much so the legit like the de facto leader of of a of a country. Uh what is that where does that leave us when it comes to when it comes to the rest of the world? Like what what what is the rest of the world going to do here? I don't think I really don't think there it's a coincidence here that there are mass protests going on in Iran to remove the Ayatollah. At the same time that Razer Sha is now for the first time like really going hard on Twitter and other media sources. Raasha is the presumed leader of Iran in a transitionary government. He's the He has no RZ. That guy the guy has no RZ unfortunately. I actually I said this to Jonah in a private chat. I think if Raza Sha was like three inches taller and better looking like it would be it would be over. Like Iran would have fallen yesterday. But like you know for for for whatever for whatever reason he's got he's got no RZ. He's got no way with words. Uh so he's he's kind of like boring and