Bitcoin Above $100k, Is Alt Season Here?

This episode unpacks the resurgent bullishness in crypto, exploring Bitcoin's decoupling from traditional markets and the burgeoning altcoin season, offering critical insights for investors navigating new financial products and AI-driven narratives.

Bitcoin's Bullish Momentum and Decoupling from Equities

• The discussion kicks off with Bitcoin trading above $107,000, a significant peak achieved without widespread market euphoria, contrasting with languishing equity markets. Avi expresses confidence in Bitcoin reaching $120,000 soon. Jonah concurs, though he notes a concerning rise in Bitcoin funding rates – the cost to hold leveraged long positions, with Deribit at 40% and Hyperliquid at 11% – indicating many are leveraging into the highs. Despite this, Jonah believes the market has grown beyond just "degens" (a colloquial term for high-risk traders in crypto) and that Bitcoin's decoupling from equities is a strong positive signal.
• Actionable Insight: High funding rates suggest caution for short-term leveraged plays, but Bitcoin's strength independent of equities points to underlying crypto-specific drivers that investors should monitor.

The Cambrian Explosion of Crypto Financial Products

• Avi attributes Bitcoin's rise, in part, to a "capital markets play," highlighting a surge in new crypto-related financial products from traditional finance (TradFi) players. He cites examples like MicroStrategy's continued capital raises and Republic's SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company, a shell company that raises capital through an IPO to acquire an existing company) targeting crypto assets. Avi, drawing on his experience, likens this to the structured products boom, where an initial proliferation of product types signaled massive underlying interest and preceded a market rally. "It's like we're seeing a massive proliferation of different types of products in the traditional markets, capital market space. And that to me indicates a tremendous amount of interest," Avi states.
• Strategic Implication: The influx of diverse crypto investment products from TradFi suggests broadening institutional adoption and new capital inflows, a trend Crypto AI investors should watch for similar developments in AI-specific crypto assets.

Interpreting the Product Boom: A Demand-Driven Super Cycle

• Jonah agrees with the observation of product proliferation but refines Avi's causality. Drawing from his Goldman Sachs trading desk experience, Jonah posits these "investor products" are a symptom of a demand-driven super cycle, similar to the 2000s commodity boom fueled by China's growth. He emphasizes that super cycles are driven by structural demand, not supply shocks. "I think there is a super cycle going on and that structural demand is manifesting itself not just in demand for IBIT (BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF) and spot BTC (actual Bitcoin), but also for other forms of more complex exposure," Jonah explains. Avi clarifies his point, agreeing that the product explosion is indicative of latent demand, suggesting we are at the beginning of this dynamic.
• Actionable Insight: If this is a demand-driven super cycle, the current product innovation is just the start. Investors should look for early signs of similar product diversification around promising AI crypto projects.

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Fiscal Irresponsibility

• Avi presents a second reason for his bullishness: Bitcoin's outperformance while equities stall, which he links to the U.S. Congress pushing through large spending budgets with little regard for fiscal sanity. He notes that even Republican hardliners attempting to block such bills were "steamrolled," indicating no political appetite for fiscal discipline. This environment, Avi argues, strengthens Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge.
• Strategic Implication: Continued fiscal expansion could further fuel Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value, potentially benefiting the broader crypto market, including AI-related assets perceived as having intrinsic utility.

Navigating Short-Term Volatility: High Leverage and Potential Dips

• Despite overall bullishness, Avi points to quantitative data causing short-term nervousness. He highlights a $3 billion increase in Open Interest (OI) – the total value of unsettled futures contracts – in Bitcoin over three days, with similar leverage seen across many altcoins. This suggests widespread leveraged long positions, making the market susceptible to a flush. Avi anticipates a potential 10% liquidation wick, suggesting, "if we like drop five percent you're supposed to be buying again."
• Actionable Insight: The high leverage in futures markets signals potential for increased short-term volatility. Investors should be prepared for dips and consider them buying opportunities for fundamentally sound projects, including those in the Crypto AI space.

Strategic Positioning: To Hold or Buy the Dip?

• Jonah, known for his generally bullish stance, advises against selling in anticipation of a dip. "I think this is the moment where if you're fully invested, you just hang on," he suggests, while cautioning against applying new leverage due to high funding rates. He humorously suggests that if one has dry powder, they should be ready to buy any pullback, even if it means "lying to your grandma" for funds. Jonah also briefly touches upon the recent Coinbase hack, reminding listeners of the security risks inherent in crypto.
• Speaker Analysis: Jonah's perspective, often rooted in riding market waves, advocates for staying invested during strong uptrends but exercising caution with new leverage, a balanced approach for volatile markets.

Political Landscape and Bitcoin's Role as a Macro Hedge

• Jonah revisits his earlier thesis that Donald Trump's potential presidency would be bullish for Bitcoin. He argues that any politician, regardless of rhetoric about fiscal discipline, will ultimately resort to stimulus if markets falter, as none have the "mandate or the balls to send the economy into a recession." This continuous cycle of spending and potential money printing, Jonah believes, solidifies Bitcoin's role as a hedge. He notes that Bitcoin has only been institutionally investable for a short period, and its sustained outperformance against stocks will increasingly attract macro investors seeking decorrelated assets.
• Strategic Implication: The perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against government overspending and currency devaluation is growing. Crypto AI researchers should consider how this narrative might influence investment flows into the broader digital asset class.

Emerging Altcoin Opportunities: Syrup's Surge and Niche Coins

• The conversation shifts to altcoins, with Avi and Jonah patting themselves on the back for highlighting Syrup, a token that surged 50% in the past week. Avi notes its "ridiculous price to earnings ratio" as a key factor. Other mentions include Monero (XMR) and Trumpcoin, with Avi quipping, "Crime is paying."
• Actionable Insight: The strong performance of specific altcoins like Syrup, driven by fundamentals like P/E ratios, signals a market increasingly rewarding utility and earnings, a positive sign for AI crypto projects that can demonstrate tangible value.

Contrarian Investing: The "Grave Dancing" Heuristic

• Avi shares a personal trading heuristic: when prominent figures smugly proclaim an asset's demise, it's often a strong buy signal. He cites Tesla's rally after negative commentary from Tim Waltz as an example. "When people grave dance. Like, you gotta you got to get back in," Avi advises. He applies this to his recent decision to reallocate some funds to gold after its selloff and subsequent negative sentiment.
• Strategic Implication: For Crypto AI investors, this contrarian approach could be applied to AI projects that face temporary FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) but retain strong underlying technology or community support.

Portfolio Diversification: Gold and Geopolitical Risk Assessment

• Avi's move into gold prompts a discussion on its role. Jonah agrees gold outperforms Bitcoin during "global macro freakouts," citing the potential for an Israel-Iran conflict to escalate, possibly leading to the Straits of Hormuz being shut—an event he describes as "stocks down 30% kind of event." The speakers then delve into the specifics of a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Avi, analyzing the situation, believes Iran is unlikely to escalate to full-scale war as bombing nuclear research sites (which Iran denies are for weapons) doesn't cripple their economy or critical infrastructure. Jonah, while acknowledging Avi's rational take, maintains that in a severe macro shock, gold would be the prime beneficiary.
• Technical Term: Straits of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil supply passes.
• Actionable Insight: While Bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement, gold may offer better protection during acute geopolitical crises. Crypto AI investors should consider broader portfolio diversification to manage such tail risks.

Worldcoin: Persistent Skepticism Amidst AI Hype

• Avi reiterates his bearish stance on Worldcoin, advising to "short it every time it goes up 20 to 30%." Jonah acknowledges a counterargument that Sam Altman might merge Worldcoin with OpenAI, requiring eyeball scans for AI services, but Avi dismisses this, believing Altman is too focused on "programming the Terminator."
• Strategic Implication: Despite the hype around AI, specific projects like Worldcoin face significant skepticism regarding their utility and tokenomics. Investors should critically evaluate the long-term viability of AI-related tokens beyond narrative appeal.

Grass (AI Coin): Potential vs. Transparency in Revenue

• The discussion turns to Grass, an AI-related coin. Avi mentions the founder cited "mid eight figure revenue" but expresses skepticism due to the lack of public data. "If the revenues were good, they would be public about it," Avi opines. He owns a small, non-substantial amount, awaiting clearer data. He brings it up because he's more bullish on altcoins now, especially those with revenue potential, and Grass has consolidated and broken a downtrend.
• Actionable Insight: For AI crypto projects like Grass, verifiable revenue and transparency are becoming crucial differentiators. Researchers should prioritize projects that offer clear data on adoption and financial performance.

Renewed Altcoin Bullishness and the Rise of Launchcoin

• Both Avi and Jonah express increased bullishness on altcoins, driven by a perceived market appetite for "real businesses" and revenue-generating products. Jonah introduces Launchcoin, a platform akin to a more institutional Pump.fun (a platform for rapidly launching memecoins) for crypto VCs and project launches. He highlights its impressive early performance, claiming it earned $15 million in fees and $3.25 million in revenue in its first week, ranking high on DeFi Llama (a DeFi analytics site) for revenue. "Basically anything below a billion [FDV] that has a good narrative and makes money feels like it's worth a yolo at this point," Jonah suggests.
• Technical Term: FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation): The total market capitalization of a project if all its tokens, including those not yet in circulation, were issued.
• Strategic Implication: The market is showing a clear preference for altcoins with demonstrable revenue and utility. AI crypto projects that can showcase strong business models and user adoption are well-positioned for this "alt season."

The 1000x Token and Terminal: Building a New Crypto Interface

• The hosts briefly mention their own 1000x token and associated terminal, which they position as a place for crypto discussion and analysis, aiming to improve on existing financial interfaces. Avi notes his work on improving liquidity for their token.
• Context: This section refers to the hosts' own project, aiming to create a specialized crypto information and community platform.

The Limitations of Traditional Financial Terminals for Crypto

• Avi critiques traditional financial terminals like Bloomberg, stating they have a steep learning curve and are not well-suited for navigating the crypto space. He points out that expertise in one asset class on Bloomberg doesn't easily transfer to another, and its crypto coverage is poor. "Crypto on Bloomberg is horrendous... they've got what like 10 tokens on there or something," Jonah adds, with Avi agreeing it's "totally horrendous."
• Actionable Insight: The inadequacy of traditional tools highlights a market need for specialized crypto analytics and information platforms, an area where AI could play a significant role in data aggregation and insight generation.

Monero: The Unsung Hero of Privacy Coins?

• Avi passionately reiterates his bullishness on Monero (XMR), a privacy-focused cryptocurrency. He describes it as a "$6.4 billion private Swiss bank in your pocket" and believes it's worth at least $20 billion, arguing Monero embodies the original privacy intentions of Bitcoin. "Monero is what Bitcoin was meant to be," Avi exclaims.
• Technical Term: Monero (XMR): A cryptocurrency that uses advanced cryptography to provide strong privacy features, obscuring transaction details.
• Strategic Implication: As regulatory scrutiny on crypto increases, privacy-preserving technologies like Monero could see renewed interest, although they also face delisting risks from exchanges. This is a niche but potentially high-upside area for specialized investors.

Conclusion

This episode signals a strong resurgence in crypto bullishness, driven by Bitcoin's unique strength and an emerging altcoin season favoring revenue-generating projects. Crypto AI investors should focus on projects with transparent, verifiable utility and be prepared for increased institutional productization in the space.