The shift from linear, bottleneck-driven technological progress to a multi-layered, interconnected advancement model in AI has rendered traditional forecasting obsolete, forcing a re-evaluation of what "singularity" truly represents.
Prioritize adaptability: Invest in modular, composable AI infrastructure and tools that thrive in multi-layered, unpredictable environments, rather than betting on single-bottleneck solutions.
The inability to narrate AI's future means traditional roadmaps are obsolete; success hinges on navigating simultaneous, interconnected advancements and embracing the emergent.
The era of infrastructure-heavy tech deployment is over; AI's internet-native nature means immediate, widespread application. This shifts the competitive advantage from capital-intensive builds to rapid iteration and data leverage.
Invest in companies that are not just using AI, but are fundamentally rethinking their business models around AI's ability to collapse traditional cost structures and accelerate product development.
AI is a force multiplier for both individual opportunity and national power. Understanding its immediate deployability and the new rules of company building is crucial for investors and builders aiming to lead in the next wave of innovation over the next 12-24 months.
Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, coupled with a deregulatory environment, creates a powerful tailwind for financial assets and tech, driving a capital investment super cycle.
Investors should prioritize companies with proprietary data and GPU access, as these are the new moats in an AI-driven world where traditional software leads are eroding.
The convergence of a stimulative macro environment and AI's disruptive force means capital will flow to those who can scale, innovate, and navigate complex policy landscapes, making strategic positioning now critical for future relevance.
The macro trend of autonomous AI agents is shifting compute demand beyond GPUs, creating an unexpected CPU crunch and forcing a re-evaluation of on-premise inference and cost-optimized model routing for security and efficiency.
Investigate hybrid compute strategies, combining secure local environments (Mac Minis, home servers) with cloud-based LLMs, and explore multi-model API gateways like OpenRouter to optimize agent costs and performance.
AI agents are here, demanding a rethink of your compute stack and security protocols. Prepare for a future where CPU capacity, not just GPU, becomes a critical bottleneck, and strategic cost management for diverse AI models is non-negotiable for competitive advantage.
The move from general-purpose LLMs to specialized AI agents demands a new data architecture that captures the *why* of decisions, not just the *what*. This creates a new, defensible layer of institutional memory, moving value from raw model IP to proprietary decision intelligence.
Invest in or build agentic systems that are in the *orchestration path* of specific business processes. This allows for the organic capture of decision traces, forming a proprietary context graph that incumbents cannot easily replicate.
Over the next 12 months, the ability to build and extract value from context graphs will define the winners in the enterprise AI space, creating a new "context graph stack" that will be 10x more valuable than the modern data stack.
AI's progress has transitioned from a linear, bottleneck-driven model to a multi-layered, interconnected explosion of advancements. This makes traditional long-term forecasting obsolete.
Prioritize building and investing in adaptable systems and teams that can rapidly respond to emergent opportunities across diverse AI layers. Focus on robust interfaces and composability rather than betting on a single "next frontier."
The next 6-12 months will test our ability to operate in an environment where the future is increasingly opaque. Success will come from embracing this unpredictability, focusing on present opportunities, and building for resilience against an unknowable future.
The Macro Shift: Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with an AI-driven capital investment super cycle, creates a "sweet spot" for financial assets and growth technology. This favors institutions with scale and adaptability.
The Tactical Edge: Prioritize investments in companies with proprietary data and significant GPU access, as these are new competitive moats in the AI era. For founders, secure capital to compete against well-funded incumbents.
The Bottom Line: Scale and strategic capital deployment are paramount. Whether a financial giant or tech insurgent, the ability to grow, adapt to AI's new rules, and handle regulatory currents will determine relevance and success.
The AI industry is consolidating around players with deep, proprietary data and infrastructure, transforming general LLMs into personalized, transactional agents. This means value accrues to those who can not only build powerful models but also distribute them at scale and integrate them into daily life.
Investigate companies building on top of Google's AI ecosystem or those creating niche applications that use personalized AI. Focus on solutions that move beyond simple chatbots to actual task execution and intent capture.
Google's strategic moves, particularly with Apple and in e-commerce, signal a future where AI is deeply embedded in every digital interaction. Understanding this shift is crucial for identifying where value will be created and captured.
Funding Rates Are a UX Bottleneck. For RWAs to succeed on-chain, derivative models must offer predictable costs. The volatile funding rates of crypto-native perps are a major barrier to mainstream adoption, pushing innovation toward CFD-like structures.
The Airdrop Is Dead; Long Live the Curated ICO. Capital formation is shifting from broad, farmed airdrops to sophisticated, curated token sales. Projects now act like luxury brands, hand-picking investors to ensure long-term alignment, killing the "spray and pray" distribution model.
Political Wins Can Backfire. The CZ pardon highlights the double-edged sword of crypto's political maneuvering. The perceived corruption and mainstream backlash create a massive reputational headache that undermines the industry’s push for legitimacy.
Banks Can't Ignore the Genie: Jamie Dimon's reversal and JPMorgan's new crypto services signal that institutional resistance is crumbling. The catalyst is the disruptive threat of stablecoins to core banking models.
Consolidation is the Game: Mature sectors like exchanges and L1s are consolidating. The strategic play is to identify the dominant platforms (e.g., ETH, Solana, major exchanges) poised to compound value as moats widen.
Regulation is the Kingmaker: Political moves, such as Trump pardoning CZ, are reshaping the competitive map. Access to the U.S. market will be a critical battleground, making regulatory strategy more important than ever.
**The "Bloomberg for Crypto" is the Endgame.** The most valuable companies will provide institutional-grade data and software. Blockworks' pivot is a bet on this future, moving from a crowded news business to a high-growth data platform with clear product-market fit.
**Tokenization is Now a Publicly Traded Thesis.** With Securitize’s IPO, investors can make a direct, public-market bet on the tokenization of real-world assets. It will likely be valued as a high-growth proxy for the entire sector.
**Adoption is Bought, Not Begged.** Layer 1s are aggressively paying for partnerships with brands like Western Union. For investors, the question is whether these deals create a sustainable flywheel or just a temporary boost.
The Q4 Pump is a Trap. The widespread belief in a year-end alt season has become a crowded exit strategy. When everyone plans to sell into the same pump, there’s no one left to buy.
ETH's Fundamentals are Hollow. Ethereum's valuation is propped up by narratives, not reality. Weak on-chain activity and a value-accrual model that benefits apps over the base layer make its current price unsustainable.
The Sellers Are Here. From VCs with token unlocks to treasury companies turning into paper hands, identifiable sellers now outweigh the speculative buyers, signaling the cycle has turned.
Survive, Then Thrive. After massive liquidations, the strongest assets and narratives (e.g., privacy plays like Zcash) recover first. Focus capital on names showing relative strength post-wipeout, as they are the first to capture returning liquidity.
Revenue is the New Narrative. The game has changed. The market now demands clear revenue streams and legal structures that align token holders with protocol success. Valueless governance tokens are out; tokens tied to real business operations are in.
On-Chain TradFi is Here. Platforms like Hyperliquid are successfully bringing assets like the NASDAQ on-chain, proving crypto-native demand for traditional markets. This represents a major new frontier for DeFi protocols looking to capture volume.
**Fiscal is the new Fed.** Government spending, not central bank policy, is the dominant force in the economy. Stop looking for a traditional recession; the deficit is the stimulus that won’t quit.
**The Fed is re-opening the liquidity spigot.** The era of Quantitative Tightening is over. A gradual but persistent expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is coming, which will provide a tailwind for assets.
**Own scarce assets.** The long-term debasement of fiat currency is the default path. Alden remains constructive on Bitcoin, viewing its current phase as a prelude to a significant move higher in the coming years.
