The Macro Shift: Insatiable AI demand meets the technical reality of rapidly depreciating model assets, pushing AI companies to prioritize infrastructure control and long-term capability scaling over short-term consumer-facing profitability.
The Tactical Edge: Invest in AI infrastructure plays (GPUs, energy, data centers) and companies building model-agnostic agentic systems, as these components offer more durable value than individual frontier models.
The Bottom Line: The market is underestimating the demand growth for increasingly capable AI models. Expect continued massive capex in compute, and position for a future where AI agents become indispensable, driving significant, sustained enterprise spend over the next 6-12 months.
AI's economic viability is shifting from model-specific gross margins to the long-term utility of persistent agents and the underlying compute infrastructure.
Invest in or build infrastructure plays (GPUs, energy, data centers) that support the insatiable demand for AI compute, recognizing that model software is a rapidly depreciating asset.
The market's recent "whiplash" on AI valuations misses the true demand growth and the strategic pivot towards infrastructure and long-running agents.
The AI industry is moving from a pure software-as-a-service model to a vertically integrated infrastructure play, where control over compute and power becomes the ultimate competitive advantage.
Invest in or build solutions that abstract away the underlying model, allowing for easy swapping between providers, while focusing on persistent agent memory and identity.
The market underestimates AI demand. Companies controlling infrastructure and delivering agents capable of sustained, high-value work will capture significant value over the next 6-12 months, even as model development costs remain high.
The AI industry is shifting from a pure software-like model to one where infrastructure ownership and continuous R&D are paramount.
Prioritize infrastructure investment: Given the GPU and energy constraints, securing or building proprietary compute infrastructure will be a decisive competitive advantage.
The next 6-12 months will see a continued capital expenditure arms race in AI infrastructure.
The AI industry is shifting from a software-like business model to one resembling capital-intensive infrastructure, where models are rapidly depreciating assets. This forces a focus on massive, continuous R&D and infrastructure buildout (GPUs, energy) to unlock future capabilities and markets, rather than immediate software-like margins.
Prioritize infrastructure investments. For builders, design systems with model agnosticism, allowing for easy swapping as models improve or become obsolete. For investors, evaluate AI companies not just on current gross margins, but on their ability to secure compute, attract top talent for R&D, and demonstrate a credible path to future market expansion through scale.
The next 6-12 months will see continued massive capital expenditure in AI infrastructure. Companies that can secure GPU supply and energy, while effectively managing the short lifespan of frontier models through continuous R&D, will hold a decisive competitive advantage. The market will increasingly reward long-term vision and infrastructure plays over short-term profitability.
If you look at how much they spent in R&D in the four months before they released GPT5, that quantity was likely larger than what they made in gross profits during the whole tenure of GPT5 and GPT5.2.
The models as a rapidly depreciating asset actually brings a little bit into focus of what might be the enduring asset... it seems to me that this part is infrastructure.
The market is always right... However, with that said, they didn't get the demand growth. They didn't get the way in which that demand is outstripping supply. They didn't get how much more we were going to demand as these models get better.
The AI industry is transitioning from a model-centric competition to an infrastructure and agent-centric one, where raw compute and persistent user experience dictate long-term value.
Prioritize investments in AI infrastructure providers and platforms that enable model agnosticism and agent memory.
Expect continued massive capital expenditure in AI infrastructure, a focus on enterprise solutions, and the rise of "sticky" AI agents that abstract away underlying model changes, shifting the competitive battleground.
The AI industry is moving from a software-like model, where products have long lifespans, to one where models are rapidly depreciating assets requiring continuous, heavy R&D investment.
Prioritize investments in AI infrastructure and agent orchestration layers that abstract away underlying models.
The market is underestimating the demand growth for increasingly capable AI models.
The Macro Shift: AI models are rapidly depreciating software assets, making the underlying compute and energy infrastructure the enduring value proposition.
The Tactical Edge: Prioritize building model-agnostic agentic workflows that retain memory and context, allowing for flexible model swapping and cost optimization.
The Bottom Line: The AI race is a capital-intensive marathon where infrastructure ownership and a long-term vision for capability expansion, not immediate model profitability, will determine market leadership over the next 6-12 months.
1. Regulatory Clarity is Crucial: Effective engagement with the SEC can pave the way for more robust and compliant crypto innovations.
2. Decentralization Enhances Stability: Solana’s efforts to decentralize through Jeto Labs contribute to a more resilient and trustworthy network.
3. DeFi as a Game-Changer: The growth of DeFi offers unprecedented opportunities for financial autonomy and market efficiency, driving future crypto adoption.
1. LIBRA’s collapse underscores the critical need for transparency and ethical practices in meme coin launches to restore investor trust.
2. Innovative projects like Sonic and Berachain are crucial in revitalizing the crypto market, demonstrating strong recovery and growth potential.
3. Utility-driven tools such as Kato are essential for fostering a more transparent and authentic crypto community, paving the way for sustainable development.
1. Institutional Momentum: Bitcoin’s increasing adoption by institutional investors solidifies its position as a stable digital asset, offering a counterbalance to market volatility.
2. Solana’s Resilience: Despite challenges from memecoin fallout, Solana’s strong ecosystem and fundamental value propositions continue to sustain its growth and developer interest.
3. HyperEVM’s Potential: The rise of HyperEVM highlights the ongoing innovation in blockchain technology, emphasizing the need for multi-faceted DeFi solutions to compete with established platforms like Solana.
1. Shift to Utility-Driven Crypto: The decline of meme coins signals a maturation of the crypto market, with a strong pivot towards innovative, utility-focused projects, especially in AI.
2. AI Models Are Accelerating Innovation: Rapid advancements in AI, exemplified by models like Grock 3, are challenging established leaders and driving the next wave of crypto innovation.
3. Kaido’s KITO Token is a Game-Changer: The launch of Kaido’s KITO token represents a significant opportunity for investors and developers, as it aims to create a robust decentralized data layer critical for the advancement of AI agents in crypto.
1. Multichain Strategy is Crucial: Embracing interoperability across multiple blockchains significantly enhances the liquidity and utility of tokenized assets, positioning funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL for broader market integration and success.
2. Regulatory Clarity Drives Innovation: Clear and supportive regulatory frameworks are essential for the continued growth and adoption of tokenized real-world assets, ensuring investor protection while fostering technological advancement.
3. Institutional Adoption is Accelerating: The rapid influx of institutional capital and interest in tokenized assets highlights a pivotal shift towards mainstream acceptance, presenting lucrative opportunities for investors and innovators alike.
1. Primus is revolutionizing crypto middleware with advanced ZK technologies, enabling secure, privacy-preserving applications essential for regulatory compliance.
2. Investment strategies are shifting towards application-layer projects, offering higher engagement and returns by addressing real-world use cases in fintech and AI.
3. Embedding compliance into blockchain protocols through ZK proofs is crucial for broader adoption, providing a seamless integration of privacy and regulatory requirements.